The Maple Leafs and Senators are set to face off at 7:00 ET on ESPN+. The Senators will host the game at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON. The Maple Leafs are the -1.5 goal favorites in this Atlantic division matchup against the Senators. The over/under for the game is set at 6.5 goals.
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS VS OTTAWA SENATORS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Ottawa Senators +1.5
This game will be played at Canadian Tire Centre at 7:00 ET on Saturday, February 10th.
WHY BET THE OTTAWA SENATORS:
- Despite being 1.5 goal underdogs, we predict the Senators to come out on top with a final score of 4-3.
- We like the Senators on the moneyline (+115)
- The Senators are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
Can Toronto Secure a Road Victory?
After 49 games, the Maple Leafs are in 5th place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 26-15-8. In the Atlantic Division, Toronto is in 3rd place. On the road this season, the Leafs have gone 14-5-6.
Over their last ten games, the Leafs have gone 5-5, and they have won two straight games on the road. As the favorite this season, Toronto has gone 22-11-7.
On the season, the Maple Leafs have an average scoring margin of +.3 goals per game, and they have gone 15-34 against the puck line. In their last ten games, Toronto is just 2-8 against the puck line, and their puck line record as the favorite is currently 9-31.
So far, the Maple Leafs have 13 wins by multiple goals, and they have gone 8-17 against the puck line on the road. In their last ten road games, Toronto’s puck line record is 4-6, and they have an average scoring margin of +.4 goals per game away from home.
For the season, Toronto’s games have finished with an average of 6.7 goals per game. Their average over/under line for the season is 6.5. Overall, the Maple Leafs have an over/under record of 25-22-2.
Toronto has played well in their previous three road games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 3 goals per game while allowing 3. The team also performed well vs the puck line at 2-1.
When looking at their offense, the Maple Leafs have an average of 3.4 goals per game this season, positioning themselves 7th in the NHL. In terms of shots on goal per game, they are ranked 5th in the league. This season, the Maple Leafs are 13-7 when getting more shots on goal than their opponents. And in games with fewer shots on goal, they have a 11-7 record.
Toronto will be looking for a good game from Auston Matthews who leads the team in scoring with 41 goals, ranking 1st in the NHL. Along with his scoring, he has come up with 20 assists so far.
In terms of defense, the Senators head into the game ranked 28th in goals allowed. On average, opponents are taking 30.2 shots per game against Ottawa. So far, they are 27th in shutouts, achieving 1 shutouts.
Goalie Ilya Samsonov gets the start and has made 21 starts this season. His record at this point is 9-4, and his save percentage is 0.553%.
Does Ottawa Stand a Chance at Home?
At 20-25-2, the Senators are currently 8th in the Atlantic Division and 15th in the Eastern Conference. In the Eastern Conference, Ottawa has gone 15-14 and 9-7 against divisional opponents. Over their last ten games, the Senators have gone 6-4 and have won two straight games.
On the year, Ottawa has been the underdog in 26 of their 47 games and have gone 8-16-2 in those games. At home, the Senators have gone 13-12-2, and they have gone 3-2 over their last five games.
On the season, Ottawa has a puck line record of 21-26 and an average scoring margin of -0.3 goals per game. So far, they have had 20 losses by multiple goals compared to just 14 wins by multiple goals.
As the underdog, the Senators have a puck line record of 13-13 and an average scoring differential of -0.9 goals per game. Their puck line record on the road is 9-11, and they have gone 6-4 against the puck line in their last ten games.
On average, Ottawa’s games have finished with 7 goals per game. The season’s average over/under line stands at 6.6. In total, the Senators come in with an over/under record of 26-18-3.
When looking at their past three road matchups, Toronto has an puck line record of 2-1 while averaging 3 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
On offense, the Senators are averaging 3.3 goals per game which is 15th in the NHL. In terms of shots on goal per game, they are 16th in the league. This season, the Senators are 13-15 when getting more shots on goal than their opponents. And in games with fewer shots on goal, they have a 6-10 record.
Ottawa’s leading scorer is Brady Tkachuk. So far, he has 22 goals which is 22nd in the NHL. Tkachuk also comes into the game with 19 assists.
Defensively, the Senators are currently 28th in goals allowed. On average, opponents are taking 30.2 shots per game against Ottawa. They also are 27th in shutouts, coming in with 1 shutouts.
Entering the game, goalie Joonas Korpisalo has started 29 games this season. His current record stands at 12-16, and his save percentage is 0.859%.