The Maple Leafs and Sabres are set to face off at 7:00 ET on ESPN+. The Sabres will host the game at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY. The Maple Leafs are favored by -1.5 in this Atlantic divisional contest against the Sabres. The game’s over/under currently sits at 6.5 goals.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS VS BUFFALO SABRES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Buffalo Sabres +1.5

This game will be played at KeyBank Center at 7:00 ET on Saturday, March 30th.

WHY BET THE BUFFALO SABRES:

  • With a 1.5 goal advantage on the spread, our projections favor the Maple Leafs to secure a 4-3 victory.
  • Take the Maple Leafs on the moneyline
  • On the puck line, we like Sabres (+1.5)

Will the Maple Leafs Pull Through as the Favored Road Team?

Heading into tonight’s game, the Maple Leafs sit in 5th place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 41-22-9. In the Atlantic Division, Toronto is 3rd with a record of 8-11 against divisional opponents. On the road this season, the Maple Leafs have gone 21-9-6.

Over their last ten games, Toronto has gone 5-5 and are 3-2 in their last five games. Against teams from the Eastern Conference, the Maple Leafs have gone 17-23 this season. When favored, Toronto has gone 35-16-7 this season.

On the road this season, the Maple Leafs have a puck line record of 15-21 and an average scoring margin of +.6 goals per game. So far, Toronto has been favored in 58 games and has a puck line record of 18-40 in those contests.

Overall, the Maple Leafs have 23 wins by multiple goals and an average scoring margin of +.5 goals per game. In their last ten road games, Toronto’s puck line record is 7-3, and their puck line record for the season is 28-44.

This season, Toronto’s games have an average of 6.8 goals per game. The average over/under number for the season is 6.5. The Maple Leafs come in with an over/under performance of 39-31-2.

When looking at their past three road matchups, Toronto has an puck line record of 2-1 while averaging 3 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.

The Maple Leafs come into the game scoring an average of 3.6 goals per game, putting them 3rd in the NHL. Regarding shots targeted at the goal per game, they are 7th in the league. This season, the Maple Leafs are 22-11 when getting more shots on goal than their opponents. And in games with fewer shots on goal, they have a 17-9 record.

Toronto’s leading scorer is Auston Matthews. So far, he has 59 goals which is 1st in the NHL. Along with his scoring, he has come up with 35 assists so far.

The Sabres defense is currently 17th in goals allowed. Opponents are averaging 29.2 shots per game against Buffalo. In terms of shutouts, they come into the game ranked 8th with 5 shutouts.

Entering the game, goalie Ilya Samsonov has started 34 games this season. His current record stands at 19-6, and his save percentage is 0.664%.

Do the Sabres Have a Shot at a Home Win?

Buffalo comes into the game with a 35-34-5 record, which has them in 12th place in the Eastern Conference. In the Atlantic Division, the Sabres are in 6th place. At home this season, Buffalo has gone 18-18-1.

Over their last ten games, the Sabres have gone 6-4 and have won two of their last three games. Against teams from the Eastern Conference, Buffalo has gone 20-23 this season.

Buffalo enters this game with a puck line record of 41-33 and they have gone 24-15 vs. the puck line as the underdog. So far, the Sabres have had 24 wins by multiple goals and 11 wins by just one goal.

As the underdog, the Sabres have gone 32-15 vs. the puck line and their average scoring margin as the underdog is -.1 goals per game. In their last ten home games, Buffalo has gone 6-4 vs. the puck line.

Games involving Buffalo have an average of 6 goals per game this season. Their average over/under line is 6.4. In terms of their over/under performance, the Sabres come in with a record of 30-42-2.

When looking at their past three road matchups, Toronto has an puck line record of 2-1 while averaging 3 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.

On offense, the Sabres are averaging 3 goals per game which is 18th in the NHL. In terms of shots on goal per game, they are 13th in the league. The Buffalo offense is ranked 30th in power play goals. As for shorthanded goals, they find themselves at 18th in the NHL.

Buffalo’s current leading scorer is JJ Peterka. This season, he has 26 goals, which puts him 45th in the NHL. In addition to his goal scoring, Peterka has 20 assists this season.

Buffalo defense takes on the Maple Leafs ranked 17th in goals allowed. On average, opponents are averaging 29.2 shots per game against Buffalo. They also are 8th in shutouts, with 5 shutouts.

Goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen comes into the game having made 44 starts this season. So far, his record is 24-19 and he has a save percentage of 0.864%.