Making on a bet on this NCAA game featuring the Rockets versus the Bulls? Tip off is at at 2:00 ET, and you can watch it all unfold on ESPN+. The game will be played at Alumni Arena in Buffalo, NY. Toledo is favored by -10.5 in this Mid-American conference matchup the against Buffalo. The over/under for the game is set at 158.5 points.


The Pick: Buffalo Bulls +10.5

This game will be played at Alumni Arena at 2:00 ET on Saturday, March 2nd.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-69 in favor of the Bulls.
  • Not only will Buffalo pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +10.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 158.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 144 points.

Can Toledo Live Up to the Hype on the Road?

After losing their last two games, Toledo will look to get back on track as they take on Buffalo. So far this season, the Rockets have gone 17-11 and they are 11-4 in Mid-American Conference play. On the road, Toledo has gone 6-6 compared to 11-5 at home.

So far this season, Toledo has been favored in 18 of their 28 games, going 13-5 in those contests. Their average scoring margin on the road is +.5 compared to +4.4 at home. In their last game, the Rockets lost to Northern Illinois by a score of 75-72.

As the favorite this season, Toledo has gone just 7-11 against the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Rockets have gone just 4-6 vs. the spread. On the road, Toledo has an ATS mark of 6-6 this season and over their last three road games, they are just 1-2 vs. the spread.

For the season, Toledo’s over/under record is 14-14. Today’s over/under line of 158.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games this year (154.8). In their last three games, the over/under record is 0-3 and the average scoring total is 141 points.

The Toledo offense is coming off a game in which they scored 72 points vs. Northern Illinois. Overall their field goal percentage was 50% while connecting on 6 threes. The team’s scoring leader is Ra’Heim Moss, who holds an average of 16.1 as they head into today’s matchup. Additionally, Dante Maddox Jr. is averaging 15.5 points per game this season.

At present, the Rockets’ defense is nationally ranked 289th, allowing 77.0 points per game. The Toledo defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 75 points and allowed Northern Illinois to connect on 6 threes.

Will the Bulls Defense Show Up at Home?

Buffalo is a 10.5-point underdog at home today against Toledo. The Bulls are just 1-12 at home this season, and they have gone 1-9 in their last 10 games at home. They are also just 2-20 as underdogs this season.

Buffalo’s overall record this season is 4-24, and they have lost two straight games. Their record in the Mid-American Conference is 2-13, compared to 2-11 in non-conference games. They are also 2-12 on the road this season.

As the underdog, Buffalo’s ATS record is 10-12 this season. At home, their ATS mark is just 2-11. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Bulls’ ATS record is 4-6. In their last 3 games as the underdog, Buffalo is 2-1 vs. the spread.

This season, the over/under record for Buffalo games is 11-15-1. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 149 points, and over their last five games, the average scoring total is 144 points. So far, 20 of their games have finished with fewer points than today’s over/under line of 158.5.

Coming off their recent game, the Buffalo offense tallied 64 points in a matchup against Kent State. Their field goal percentage for the game was 46%, and they made 6 threes. Isaiah Adams led the team in scoring, putting up 19 points. Additionally, Jonnivius Smith contributed 10 points for the Bulls.

So far, the Bulls’ defense is ranked 320th in the country at 79.6 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Buffalo’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 46.2% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 35.1% this season.