Home Golf 2020 The Northern Trust Golf Betting Odds & Picks

2020 The Northern Trust Golf Betting Odds & Picks

The FedEx Cup Playoffs begin this week at TPC Boston with The Northern Trust. TPC Boston used to be the host site for the Dell Technologies Championship / Deutsche Bank Championship, but it will be the course for The Northern Trust this year, which traditionally floats around to different courses across the country.

The top 125 in the FedEx Cup Playoffs are eligible for this event, but not all of them will play. The field will be cut down to 70 for next week’s BMW Championship and then 30 for the TOUR Championship at the end of the season. Surprisingly, all 125 players have committed to this event, so nobody, barring a withdrawal, will sit out in anticipation of going to Medinah next week for the BMW Championship.

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We’ll pull the odds from MyBookie Sportsbook and list the entire field down below the body of the article. We’ll cite odds on the players as we go throughout the handicap of the event.

The Field

Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas opened up as co-favorites at MyBookie at +1200. Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm were co-second favorites at +1400. Dustin Johnson was +1600 and Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa both checked in at +2000. There aren’t many notable players missing from the field, even though there are some guys that are not necessarily worried about accumulating points.

The fact that 2,000 FedEx Cup points go to the winner should be incentive enough, given that a $10 million prize is waiting at the end of the TOUR Championship. Guys like Jason Day, Webb Simpson, and Brooks Koepka are all at +2500 and Patrick Reed and Tony Finau are +2800.

With no players opting out and no withdrawals, at least to this point, this is obviously a who’s who type of field for this week, so all of the stars will be on hand.

Course Profile

Remember, if you are looking for horse for course guys, which we’ll do shortly, this course has held the Dell Technologies Championship and Deutsche Bank Championship since 2003. This is a long par 71 coming in well over 7,300 yards.

The varied setup of this course has brought a variety of different skills into play. Two years ago, this course was big on strokes gained approach. The year prior, the greens were fast and feisty and putting was a huge part of the equation, as well as strokes gained around the green. In 2016, the angles with the tee boxes led to more emphasis on strokes gained off-the-tee.

This is a course that plays different every year and the rough can certainly be penal, especially around the greens with errant approach shots. There can also be a lot of indecision here. Some holes leave players with the choice of driver or wood off the tee. That could benefit the longer hitters, seeing as how Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, and Rickie Fowler have been the last four winners. Rory has actually won twice. Remember, this course used to hold an event that was restricted to the top 100 players. It will be the top 125 this year.

Yay or Neigh?

This is our horse for course section. Not surprisingly, given the stakes, a lot of guys have played well here. Rory McIlroy (+1400) is probably the main starting point with wins in 2012 and 2016 to go along with a fifth in 2014 and a 12th in 2018. It’s an even-numbered year, so he’ll probably run well.

Patrick Reed (+2800) was sixth in 2017, fifth in 2016, and fourth in 2015. He was 35th here two years ago. Reed has three top-15 finishes in his last four events overall. The other guy at +2800, Tony Finau, was fourth last year. He’s also finished in the top 10 in three of his last four events this season.

Webb Simpson did win here back in 2011. He’s in great current form with three top-10 finishes and a 12th in his last six events, but has finished outside the top 40 at TPC Boston in his last four tries. He’s +2500 with Brooks Koepka, who was 12th two years ago and 18th three years ago. Jason Day is also +2500 with four top-seven finishes in his last four starts.

Bryson DeChambeau is the reigning champ and Justin Thomas won in 2017 and was 24th two years ago. They’re the co-favorites, as mentioned earlier. Dustin Johnson, also among the short prices, has four top-10 finishes at TPC Boston since 2009.

Some other horse for course angles at bigger prices include Justin Rose at +5000. He was runner-up two years ago and 10th in 2018. He also finished ninth two weeks ago before missing the cut last week.

Jordan Spieth is +7000 with a runner-up in 2017, a fourth in 2013, and three other finishes inside the top 30 in his six starts here. He is not in great current form, though.

Hideki Matsuyama is +4000 with four straight top-25 finishes here, including a fourth in 2018. Paul Casey is +4500 with a 21st, a fourth, and a second in his last three starts in Boston.

Lastly, Louis Oosthuizen is +7000. had three top-15 finishes in three starts in 2012, 2015, and 2016 before finishing 31st and 30th the last two times at TPC Boston in 2018 and 2017, respectively.

Stats Handicap

This course was not in the rotation last year and it’s fair to wonder how much the recent course form matters at all as a result. Many would say it’s fair to wonder that every week.

Xander Schauffele did not play last week’s Wyndham Championship, but he’s finished 10th, sixth, 13th, and 14th in his last four events. The price tag keeps dwindling at 20/1, but he’s definitely on the cusp of getting a huge win soon. It might be tough to play him this week because he hasn’t gotten over that hump and this is a top-notch field, but his recent form is as good as anyone’s.

How about Kevin Kisner this week at +6600? Kisner was third last week at the Wyndham Championship. He rolled it well. He was tied for 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green and sixth in SG: Approach. He was in the top 20 two weeks ago at the PGA Championship, coming in 14th in SG: Approach per DataGolf. He is consistently one of the better putters on the PGA Tour, but he’s also played well with the irons, so he could be a good fit for any setup on this course.

KEVIN KISNER IS THIS WEEK’S LONG SHOT AT 66/1!

Casey looks to be worth a play at +4500 as well. He was second in SG: T2G at the PGA Championship and really struck the irons well on approach. He didn’t do anything notably well last week at the Wyndham, but finished T-31st. He certainly appeared to make adjustments after a poor showing at TPC Southwind. If course form matters here this weekend, he’s played really well at TPC Boston.

It would be hard to leave Collin Morikawa off the card this week, even at just 20/1. Morikawa has won two of the last four events he has played and can lay claim to being the best iron player on the PGA Tour. He’s never started here, but he paired his elite iron play with the lead in SG: Putting at the PGA Championship. Even when he doesn’t play at his best, like the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, he still tied for 20th, despite being a minor negative in SG: ARG.

PLAY SUPERSTAR COLLIN MORIKAWA AT 20/1 AT MYBOOKIE!

Daniel Berger is also very interesting at +3300. He’s a great ball striker and he’s got a win, a second, and a third to go along with a 13th in his five events since the restart. Berger’s best finish at TPC Boston was 12th in his first start, but he’s a guy that has the opportunity to win anywhere. He was sixth in SG: T2G at the PGA Championship and eighth in the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational.

BET DANIEL BERGER AT 33/1 AT MYBOOKIE SPORTSBOOK!

One more long-ish price is Scottie Scheffler at +6000. Scheffler skipped last week at the Wyndham, but was fourth at the PGA, 15th at the St. Jude, and 22nd at the Memorial. Something happened with his game between the Memorial and Workday Charity Open and he’s looked great in SG: T2G in his last several events.

It is really hard to take long shots in fields this exceptional because a lot of great players have to falter or not be great enough for the long shots to sneak in there. Kisner at 66/1 or Scheffler at 60/1 may be as low as you want to go. Jim Herman last week was very much the exception and not the norm.

Picks

I may regret it, but I’m going to take Collin Morikawa at +2000 instead of Xander Schauffele. Daniel Berger at +3300 is too good to pass up with his recent form. Kevin Kisner at +6600 and Paul Casey at +4500 also makes the card. Scheffler’s putting concerns are just enough to keep him off the card.

Coverage of The Northern Trust will be on Golf Channel and CBS throughout the event.

Odds from MyBookie Sportsbook as of 3:30 p.m. ET on August 17, 2020:

Bryson DeChambeau +1200
Justin Thomas +1200
Rory McIlroy +1400
Jon Rahm +1400
Dustin Johnson +1600
Xander Schauffele +2000
Collin Morikawa +2000
Jason Day +2500
Webb Simpson +2500
Brooks Koepka +2500
Patrick Reed +2800
Tony Finau +2800
Patrick Cantlay +3000
Daniel Berger +3300
Hideki Matsuyama +4000
Tiger Woods +4000
Adam Scott +4000
Paul Casey +4500
Tommy Fleetwood +5000
Justin Rose +5000
Rickie Fowler +5500
Tyrrell Hatton +6000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +6000
Scottie Scheffler +6000
Gary Woodland +6000
Billy Horschel +6000
Abraham Ancer +6000
Viktor Hovland +6600
Sungjae Im +6600
Kevin Kisner +6600
Matthew Wolff +7000
Jordan Spieth +7000
Louis Oosthuizen +7000
Harris English +8000
Si Woo Kim +8000
Brendon Todd +9000
Shane Lowry +10000
Cameron Champ +10000
Marc Leishman +10000
Phil Mickelson +10000
Matt Kuchar +11000
Bubba Watson +12500
Byeong-Hun An +12500
Russell Henley +12500
Alex Noren +12500
Ryan Palmer +12500
Doc Redman +14000
Ian Poulter +14000
Harold Varner III +14000
Adam Hadwin +14000
Emiliano Grillo +15000
Joel Dahmen +15000
Chez Reavie +16000
Joaquin Niemann +16000
Brendan Steele +16000
Tom Lewis +17500
Dylan Frittelli +17500
Kevin Na +17500
Brandt Snedeker +17500
Richy Werenski +17500
Corey Conners +20000
Cameron Smith +20000
Kevin Streelman +20000
Jason Kokrak +20000
Max Homa +20000
Mackenzie Hughes +20000
Sam Burns +20000
Brian Harman +20000
Lucas Glover +20000
Keegan Bradley +20000
Charles Howell III +20000
Henrik Norlander +20000
Charley Hoffman +20000
Bud Cauley +20000
Luke List +22500
Patrick Rodgers +22500
Adam Long +22500
Scott Stallings +22500
Cameron Davis +22500
Lanto Griffin +25000
Zach Johnson +25000
Pat Perez +25000
Sepp Straka +25000
Maverick McNealy +25000
Michael Thompson +25000
Mark Hubbard +27500
Ryan Armour +27500
Rory Sabbatini +27500
Cameron Tringale +27500
Jim Herman +27500
JT Poston +27500
Graeme McDowell +30000
Nick Taylor +30000
Xinjun Zhang +30000
Matt Jones +30000
Vaughn Taylor +30000
Andrew Landry +35000
Denny McCarthy +35000
Tyler Duncan +35000
Brice Garnett +35000
Keith Mitchell +35000
Sam Ryder +35000
Scott Piercy +35000
Brian Stuard +40000
Tom Hoge +40000
Adam Schenk +40000
Talor Gooch +40000
Troy Merritt +40000
Wyndham Clark +40000
Sung Kang +40000
Beau Hossler +40000
Danny Lee +40000
Kyoung Hoon Lee +40000
Bo Hoag +50000
Sebastian Munoz +50000
Carlos Ortiz +60000
Robby Shelton +60000
Scott Brown +60000
Harry Higgs +60000
Nate Lashley +60000
Matthew Nesmith +60000
Zac Blair +60000
Scott Harrington +60000
Brian Gay +75000

 

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