Week 10 of the 2021 college football season brings plenty of interesting markets to choose from, so we’re taking a closer look at Saturday’s Big 12 Conference showdown from Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa, to get you the best Texas vs. Iowa State betting pick and odds.
The Longhorns are listed as 6.5-point road underdogs on BetDSI Sportsbook. The Cyclones are firm -240 moneyline favorites, while the totals sit at 60.5 points. Interestingly, the previous six encounters between these two schools have gone in the under.
Texas hopes to stop a three-game slide
The Texas Longhorns (4-4; 4-4 ATS) have played the top-25 teams over their last three outings, going 0-3 straight up and ATS in the process. After a couple of home losses to No. 6 Oklahoma 55-48 and No. 12 Oklahoma State 32-24, the Longhorns suffered a 31-24 defeat at No. 16 Baylor this past Saturday.
In the first year under Steve Sarkisian, the Longhorns are struggling mightily to defend. They are 92nd in the nation in scoring defense (29.8), 118th in rushing yards allowed (206.9), and 65th in passing yards allowed per game (227.4).
On the other side of the ball, Texas is tallying 39.4 points per game (tied-10th in the nation). The Longhorns’ offense ranks 19th in rushing yards per contest (214.0), while junior QB Casey Thompson has tossed for 1,554 yards, 17 touchdowns, and six interceptions so far this season.
Iowa State looks to bounce back from a shootout defeat at West Virginia
The Iowa State Cyclones (5-3; 3-5 ATS) put an end to their three-game winning streak last Saturday. They lost at the West Virginia Mountaineers 38-31 as 7.5-point road favorites only a week after a 24-21 home victory over No. 8 Oklahoma State.
The Cyclones blew a seven-point lead in Week 9, surrendering 14 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. They allowed the Mountaineers to rack up 492 all-purpose yards and 28 1st downs. Now, the Cyclones are 23rd in the country in scoring defense (19.6) and fifth in total yards allowed per contest (291.9).
Iowa State is scoring 32.1 points per game (41st in the country). The Cyclones are posting 178.6 rushing yards per game (50th) and 5.2 per carry (tied-25th), while Brock Purdy has 1,833 yards, 12 touchdowns, and four picks on his season tally.
- 1-4 ATS in the last five outings as underdogs
- 4-8-1 ATS in the last 13 games against the Big 12 Conference
- 10-3 ATS in the last 13 home games as favorites of 6.5 or fewer points
Texas vs. Iowa State Pick
On paper, the Longhorns are a better offensive team than Iowa State, but the Cyclones are undoubtedly a much better defensive team than Texas. Hereof, I’m backing the Cyclones to come out on top and cover a 6.5-point spread.
The Cyclones’ defense looks to bounce back from that poor performance at West Virginia. They’ll have a difficult task to slow down the Longhorns, but I highly doubt Texas’ chances to take care of Iowa State’s offense. While the Cyclones surrender only 3.1 yards per rush, the Longhorns allow 5.3.
Pick: Take Iowa State -6.5 at -110
The Longhorns have scored 24 points in each of their previous two outings. If they want to upset the odds at Iowa State, the Longhorns will have to surpass that 24-point mark because it’s hard to imagine their defense holding the Cyclones below 30 points.
Texas has allowed 27 or more points in five straight games at any location. The over is 5-2 in the Longhorns’ last seven outings on the road, and it is 4-1 in the Cyclones’ last five games overall, so we might get the over in the Texas vs. Iowa State matchup for the first time since 2014. Last year, Iowa State beat Texas 23-20 as a 1.5-point road dog with a total of 57.5 points.
Pick: Go over 60.5 points at -110