The 2021-22 Sun Belt Conference regular season wraps up Friday, February 25, so we are taking a closer look at the Bobcats vs. Trojans showdown from Trojan Arena in Troy, Alabama, to get you the best Texas State vs. Troy betting pick and odds.
These two schools meet for the second time this season, and the Trojans search for their third consecutive victory over the Bobcats. According to MyBookie Sportsbook, Troy is a small 1.5-point home underdog with a total of 128.5 points.
Texas State aims for its ninth straight W
The Texas State Bobcats (20-6; 12-11 ATS) clinched the 2022 regular-season Sun Belt title this past Wednesday. They outlasted South Alabama 55-52 as 3-point road dogs, recording their eighth straight victory. Also, the Bobcats covered the spread for the sixth outing in a row.
Texas State held the Jaguars to 39.2% shooting from the field and 30.4% from beyond the arc (7-for-23). On the other side of the floor, the Bobcats took good care of the ball (seven turnovers) and went 6-for-14 from downtown (42.9%).
Senior guard Caleb Asberry has led the way for Texas State so far this season, averaging 13.2 points and 4.5 rebounds a night. The Bobcats are scoring 106.1 points per 100 possessions (129th in the nation) on 46.8% shooting from the field (49th) and 37.5% from downtown (27th). They are No. 125 in the NCAA NET Rankings and No. 133 in the KenPom rankings.
Troy beat UT Arlington, locked up a top-four seed
The Troy Trojans (19-9; 16-10 ATS) are coming off a 59-53 victory to the UT Arlington Mavericks this past Wednesday. It was their second win in the last four outings, as the Trojans covered a 4.5-point spread at home and clinched the top-four seed in the Sun Belt Conference.
Troy nearly blew a double-digit second-half lead. The Trojans’ defense stepped up in crunch time and held the Mavericks to a paltry five points through the final five minutes. Troy committed a whopping 22 turnovers, but the Trojans also outrebounded the Mavericks 46-24, posting 16 offensive boards.
Junior forward Efe Odigie is Troy’s leading scorer with 11.3 points per game. The Trojans are tallying only 99.9 points per 100 possessions (249th in the nation) on 42.8% shooting from the field (254th) and 32.9% from beyond the 3-point line (227th). They are No. 170 in the NCAA NET Rankings and No. 166 in the KenPom rankings.
- 1-4 ATS in the last five games against Troy
- 4-1 ATS in the last five outings as underdogs
- 6-3 ATS in the last nine games played on Friday
Texas State vs. Troy Pick
The Bobcats have already clinched the regular-season crown, so their focus should be on the championship tournament. Texas State leans on a bunch of seniors, and the Bobcats should consider resting some of their key players.
On the other side, the Trojans certainly want to finish on a high note and clinch the No. 3 seed in the conference, at least. Should they defeat the Bobcats and App State loses at Arkansas State, the Trojans will earn the No. 2 seed for the championship tournament. Troy has a lot to play for here, so I’m backing the hosts to cover. Back in December, the Trojans thrashed off the Bobcats 78-63 as 6-point road dogs, and Efe Odigie had 22 points on 10-for-14 shooting from the field.
Pick: Take Troy +1.5 at -110
The line has been set pretty low for a few reasons. The Trojans lean on their defense, allowing 99.6 points per 100 possessions (96th in the nation) on 40.9% shooting from the field (51st), so they have enough firepower to deal with the Bobcats’ solid offense.
On the other side, the Bobcats shoot the ball very well, but they average only 64.1 possessions per 40 minutes (337th). Three of their last four games have gone under the total, while the under is 9-4-1 in Troy’s previous 14 outings at any location.
Pick: Go under 128.5 points at -110