At 3:00 ET, the Red Wolves and Bobcats go head-to-head at Centennial Bank Stadium in this week 12 NCAAF matchup. Catch the action on ESPN+ with the game scheduled for Saturday, November 18th. In this matchup of Sun Belt conference rivals, the Bobcats are listed as 3.5 point road favorites. Can they secure a road victory and cover the spread?
TEXAS STATE BOBCATS VS ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES BETTING PICK
The Pick: Texas State Bobcats -3.5
This game will be played at Centennial Bank Stadium at 3:00 ET on Saturday, November 18th.
WHY BET THE TEXAS STATE BOBCATS:
- We have this one finishing with a projected score of 32-28 in favor of Texas State.
- Not only will Texas State pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -3.5.
- The over/under is currently sitting at 59.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 60 points.
Can the Bobcats Lock in a Road Win?
With a 6-4 record, the Texas State Bobcats take on Arkansas State. Their road record so far is (2-3) and at home (4-1).
So far, Texas State has been favored six times and the underdog in four games. This has led to an ATS record of 5-5 and an average scoring differential of +6.4.
So far in this season, Texas State has posted an over/under record of 3-6-1. On average, their matchups have yielded a combined score of 63.4 points, with the typical over/under line set at 61.4 points.
Heading into their matchup vs. Arkansas State, the Bobcats’ offense is averaging 201.1 rushing yards per game, along with 5 yards per attempt. They currently hold the 15th rank in rushing yards and 38th rank in passing yards, amassing an average of 263.6 yards per game. In terms of scoring, Texas State is at 34.9 points per game, which is 20th in the NCAA.
On defense, Texas State comes into the game ranked 66th in passing yards per game. Opponents are throwing the ball an average of 32.9 times per contest vs. the Bobcats. Overall, they are giving up 28.5 points per game, which is 113th in college football. Against the run, they are 95th in the NCAA in rushing yards allowed.
Will Arkansas State Pull Through as the Underdog Home Team?
So far, the Arkansas State Red Wolves are 5-5, including going 2-3 on the road and 2-2 at home.
This season, Arkansas State has gone into all of their games as the underdog and have an ATS mark of 5-4. So far, their average scoring margin is -7.3 points per contest.
Across 10 games, the average over/under line in Arkansas State’s matchups is 55.5 points. These games have seen an average combined score of 54.3 points, resulting in an OU record of 4-5.
Heading into their matchup vs. Texas State, the Red Wolves’ offense is averaging 149.7 rushing yards per game, along with 4 yards per attempt. They currently hold the 77th rank in rushing yards and 72nd rank in passing yards, amassing an average of 222.2 yards per game. In terms of scoring, Arkansas State is at 23.5 points per game, which is 77th in the NCAA.
Defensively, the Red Wolves enter the game with 18 sacks and ranked 1st in QB hurries. They’ve allowed 30.8 points per game thus far this season (124th). In terms of pass defense, they’re 145th in the NCAA, giving up 256 passing yards per game. Against the run, Arkansas State has allowed 176 rushing yards per contest thus far.