Texas State at UTSA 9/22/2018 – College Football Free Betting Pick

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

 
Saturday, 09/22/2018 at 07:00 pm TEXAS ST (1-3) at UTSA (1-3)
Expanded Matchup Game Center Bet Now Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics
Teams Line PF PA SU ATS O/U/P RY PY TY RY PY TY
395TEXAS ST 51 23.8 30.3 1-3 1-2-1 2-2-0 139.3 194.8 334.1 128.8 228.3 357.1
396UTSA -6 17.3 37 1-3 0-4-0 3-1-0 97 164.8 261.8 136.8 286.8 423.6

Last Updated: 2018-09-18

The Texas State Bobcats (+7) aren’t traveling far to battle the UTSA Roadrunners at the Alamodome. The matchup will get underway at 7:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to ESPN+.

Texas State at UTSA Betting Odds

UTSA is giving up 7 points in this game. The Bobcats are currently getting +220 moneyline odds while the Roadrunners are -300. This tilt will likely have multiple live betting scenarios. The over/under is set at 53 points.

Sharp bettors are siding with the Bobcats. The line opened at -11 and the game’s total hasn’t changed after it was set initially at 53.

The Bobcats are 1-2 straight up (SU) while the Roadrunners are 0-3 SU. The Bobcats are down 2.0 units so far and 0-2-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 2-1.

The Roadrunners are down 3.0 units this season. The team is 0-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-0.

When these two schools faced each other a year ago, UTSA knocked off Texas State handily 44-14.

The Bobcats are on the rebound after a 41-31 loss to South Alabama last week where Willie Jones III completed just 16 passes on 30 attempts for 205 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Jones III (58 yards on 17 rush attempts, one TD) also led the ground attack and was complemented by Anthony D. Taylor (44 yards on 14 carries). Hutch White (two receptions, 46 yards, one TD) and Javen Banks (two catches, 82 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

UTSA just suffered a 41-17 defeat to Kansas State. The team’s defense allowed the Wildcats to eat up the clock by rushing for 164 yards on 44 attempts, including two rush TDs. Isaiah Zuber had a productive outing in the win for Kansas State, accounting for 144 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches. As a group, the Roadrunners collectively completed 19-of-34 passes for 157 yards and two touchdowns. Cordale Grundy went 14-for-23 for 108 yards and one touchdown while D.J. Gillins was five-of-11 for 49 yards and one touchdown. B.J. Daniels (47 yards on 16 rush attempts) led the running game while Greg Campbell Jr. (six receptions, 41 yards, one TD) and Blaze Moorhead (three catches, 33 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Texas State has run the ball on 60.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while UTSA has a rush percentage of 47.4 percent. The Bobcats have produced 178 rush yards/game and have three scores on the ground this year. The Roadrunners are totaling 81 rush yards per contest and have two total rushing TDs.

The Bobcats have averaged 185 yards through the air overall and have three passing scores so far. The Roadrunners have put up 177 pass yards per outing and also have three total pass TDs.

Defensively, Texas State should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 123 rush yards and 262 pass yards per game. UTSA has allowed 173.7 yards per game on the ground and 308.3 to opposing teams in the air. The Bobcats are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 7.19 to opposing QBs, while the Roadrunners have allowed a whopping 12.11 ANY/A.

Jones III has amassed 284 passing yards this season. He’s completed 23-of-50 attempts with two passing touchdowns and two interceptions. Jones III has a 3.20 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 6.54 over the last two games.

Look for a balanced attack offensively from Texas State in this one. Willie Jones III (91 rushing yards, one rush TD, 0 receiving yards this season), Anthony D. Taylor (76 rush yards) and Keenen Brown (24 receiving yards) have each played key roles lately.

For the home team, Cordale Grundy has tallied 295 yards, one TD and one INT. Grundy’s ANY/A sits at a terrible 3.60 for the season and 3.70 over his last two games.

We expect the Roadrunners to dictate tempo by getting the ball in the hands of their running backs. Along with WR Greg Campbell Jr. (75 receiving yards, one receiving TD this season), B.J. Daniels (71 rush yards, one rush TD) and Jalen Rhodes (50 rush yards) have brought significant production to the UTSA offense.

Texas State Bobcats at UTSA Roadrunners NCAA Prediction

SU Winner – UTSA, ATS Winner – UTSA, O/U – Under

Notes

Team Betting Trends

Texas State was favored by 10 points in its last game and the O/U was set at 48.5. The over cashed and Texas State failed to cover in the 41-31 loss to South Alabama.

As a team, Texas State has rushed for 4.5 yards per carry over its past two outings.

UTSA has averaged 3.7 YPC over its last two.

UTSA has lost three fumbles this season while Texas State has let four get away.

In its last three contests, Texas State is 0-2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

UTSA was favored by 20 points in its last outing and the Over/Under was set at 46.5. The over cashed and UTSA did not cover in the 41-17 defeat to Kansas State.

Over its last three matches, UTSA is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.

The Bobcats offense has produced four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Roadrunners have accounted for zero such plays.

Both teams have allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Texas State defense has given up six pass plays of 30+ yards while UTSA has permitted nine such plays.

The Texas State offense has created five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while UTSA has created four such runs.

The Bobcats defense has allowed two rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Roadrunners have given up four such runs.

The UTSA defense has sacked opposing QBs six times this year. Texas State has registered two sacks.

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