The Longhorns and Bears are set to face off at 9:00 ET on ESPN. The Bears will host the game at Foster Pavilion in Waco, TX. This Big 12 conference matchup has an over/under of 146 points, and Baylor is favored to win by -7 at home vs. Texas.


The Pick: Texas Longhorns +7

This game will be played at Foster Pavilion at 9:00 ET on Monday, March 4th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-70 in favor of the Bears.
  • Even though we have Baylor winning straight-up, we like Texas at +7.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 146 points, and we like the under with a projected 145 points.

Can the Longhorns Lock in a Win at Waco?

After winning their last game, Texas is now 19-10 overall and 8-8 in Big 12 play. Their average scoring margin on the road this season is -3.6, and they are 5-5 in road games.

As the underdog, the Longhorns have gone 4-6 this season. They are 2-3 in their last five road games, and their record on the road over their last 10 games is 5-5.

As the underdog this season, Texas has gone 5-5 vs. the spread. On the road, their ATS record is 4-6, and over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Longhorns are 5-5. In their last three road games, Texas has gone 1-2 vs. the spread.

On the season, the over/under record for Texas games sits at 17-12. Today’s line of 146 is similar to the average over/under line in their games this year (144.5). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 149 points and their OU record in that span is 3-0. So far, 14 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line of 146.

Texas’ offense is coming off a strong performance, scoring 81 points against Oklahoma State. They had an overall field goal percentage of 47.1% and made 8/9 free throws. Leading the team in scoring is Max Abmas, who is averaging 16.5 heading into today’s matchup. Additionally, Dylan Disu also maintains a PPG average of 16.8 heading into game.

The Longhorns’ defense is presently ranked 82nd nationally, allowing an average of 68.4 points per contest. Texas’ three-point defense is currently 72nd in the country at 6.2 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 43.0% of their shots vs. Texas.

Does Baylor Have a Shot at a Home Win?

Coming into today’s game, Baylor has a record of 21-8, including a 10-5 record in Big 12 play. They have won two games in a row and are 15-1 at home this season. Their average scoring margin at home is +18.1 points per game.

So far this season, Baylor has been favored in 20 of their games, going 18-2 in those contests. Their record as the favorite is much better than their record as the underdog, which sits at just 2-5.

As the favorite this season, Baylor has gone 13-6-1 vs. the spread. At home, they have an ATS mark of 11-4-1. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Bears are 6-3-1.

This season, Baylor’s over/under record is 14-13 and today’s line of 146 is similar to the average over/under line in their games (148). In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 with an average scoring total of 143 points compared to the season average of 151.8 points per game.

In their latest game, Baylor’s offense looked good, scoring 82 points against Kansas. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 55.6% and made 15/20 free throws. In terms of offense, the Bears have a season-long field goal percentage of 49%, putting them 41st in the NCAA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 42nd in percentage and 55th in three-pointers made.

Currently, the Bears’ defense holds the 132nd rank in the nation, allowing 70.9 points per game. Against Kansas in their most recent game, the Baylor defense gave up a total of 74 points while allowing Kansas to hit 55% of their shots.