Planning on watching today’s Lions and Demons game? Catch the action at Prather Coliseum in Natchitoches, LA, as the Demons hosts this showdown at 4:00 ET on ESPN+. The over/under for this game is set at 139 points, and Northwestern State is favored by -1 vs. Texas A&M-Commerce in a Southland conference matchup.

TEXAS A&M-COMMERCE LIONS VS NORTHWESTERN STATE DEMONS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Northwestern State Demons -1

This game will be played at Prather Coliseum at 4:00 ET on Saturday, February 3rd.

WHY BET THE NORTHWESTERN STATE DEMONS:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 78-68 in favor of the Demons.
  • Not only will Northwestern State pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -1.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 139 points, and we like the over with a projected 146 points.

Can the Texas A&M-Commerce Offense Score Enough on the Road?

After a win in their last game, the Texas A&M-Commerce Lions come into this game with an 8-13 overall record. They are 2-5 in Southland Conference play and 6-8 outside of their conference.

On the road this season, the Lions have gone just 2-8 with an average scoring differential of -17.4 points per game. As the underdog, they have gone 3-10 this season.

As the underdog this season, Texas A&M-Commerce has gone 6-7 vs. the spread. On the road, their ATS record is 4-6 and over their last 10 road games, they are 4-6 vs. the spread.

Today’s over/under line of 139 is lower than the average over/under line in Texas A&M-Commerce’s games this year (142.2). In their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2 and the average scoring total is 143 points.

In their most recent game, the Lions’ offense tallied 71 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 72.6 points per game. In terms of offense, the Lions have a season-long field goal percentage of 42%, putting them 334th in the NCAA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 336th in percentage and 29th in three-pointers made.

Texas A&M-Commerce’s defense is currently in line with the NCAA average for points allowed, allowing an average of 73.3 points per game. In today’s game vs. Northwestern State, the Texas A&M-Commerce defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, Texas A&M-Commerce made 18 free-throws vs. the Lions.

Can Northwestern State Pull Out the Win as Home Favorites?

Northwestern State will look to end a three-game losing streak when they host Texas A&M-Commerce. So far this season, the Demons have gone 2-5 at home and 1-11 on the road.

Overall, Northwestern State is 5-16, including a 3-5 record in Southland Conference action. As the favorite, the Demons are 1-0, and as the underdog, they are 2-16.

Northwestern State has an ATS record of 9-10 this season, including a mark of 3-4 at home. As the favorite, the Demons are 1-0 vs. the spread this year. In their last 10 games as the favorite, Northwestern State is just 4-6 ATS.

Northwestern State’s over/under record this season is 13-6 and today’s line of 139 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (147.8). Their last three games have had an average scoring total of 144 points, which is higher than today’s OU line.

In their latest game, Northwestern State offense put up 65 points against McNeese State. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 55.9% and made 10 threes. On the offensive front, the Demons have a season-long field goal percentage of 43%, ranking 299th nationally. When it comes to three-point shooting, they are ranked 341st in terms of percentage and 225th in three-pointers made.

Facing Texas A&M-Commerce, Northwestern State aims for a better defensive performance, given their current average of 79.2 points allowed per game (297th). Northwestern State’s defense is coming off a game in which they allowed the McNeese State offense to knock down 49% of their shots on their way to putting up 89 points.