Last Updated: 2016-07-28
The matchups for Thursday in Toronto feature a few heavy favorites that should be safe to bet on and then some far closer matches that may have value on the underdog. These matches will be harder to predict and I regard them as tossups. Don’t forget you can always take a player to win a set in a close match if you think it will be close but you don’t have the confidence to take him to win.
Novak Djokovic -2500 v. Radek Stepanek +1200
- It’s never easy to feel comfortable betting on a line this large, especially if you lost on Djokovic in Wimbledon on him; however, this is as close to a sure thing as you can get. Djokovic played a very clean match today, winning in straight sets and he should push around the 37 year old Czech easily. In all likelihood, this match will not even be close.
Milos Raonic v. Jared Donaldson
- Can’t seem to find a line on this matchup but if you are able to place a wager, taking Raonic is the obvious choice. Not only has Raonic emerged as a serious top 10 player, but he will most definitely show up in front of the home crowd. Donaldson, a young American is showing signs of developing into a good player but he will become overwhelmed early and often by Raonic’s serve. The Canadian crowd will additionally be heavily behind Raonic, making it that much more difficult for Donaldson. Look for the Canadian to win and likely in straight sets.
Kei Nishikori –800 v. Rajeev Ram +550
- This line is a little bit high for my liking but Nishikori deservedly so is the heavy favorite. His game is far superior to Ram’s and unless Nishikori has an off day (always possible) he should cruise. Ram at 32 years of age is at the point in his career where you know exactly what you are going to get and this cannot match the many strengths of Nishikori’s game. Furthermore, this is an excellent opportunity for Nishikori to make a deep run in a tournament and it’s very unlikely he will squander this opportunity against a far weaker opponent.
Tomas Berdych –650 v. Ryan Harrison +450
- Fairly similar analysis in this matchup as the one above. Berdych is the far superior player who should handle Harrison easily. His game is just at a level that Harrison cannot match. Of course in my analysis I picked against Harrison yesterday who went on to beat John Isner, but I attribute that far more to Isner playing poorly than Harrison playing well. Berdych is a much stronger player and should not have difficulty dispatching the American.
Bernard Tomic -120 v. Kevin Anderson even
- The line shows this game as essentially a pick-em but I am actually very high on Tomic. Tomic has a 4-0 record against Anderson and beat him in straight sets the last two times they played. Anderson is a strong player who is getting back into form after a tough year; however, Tomic’s game is still slightly better. If both players are playing at a high level, you have to give the slight advantage to Tomic, if nothing else, because of their H2H record. Tomic’s biggest weakness is always himself, but if he stays out of his own way, there is some very good value on Tomic in this matchup.
Jack Sock +165 Stan Wawrinka-200
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- If you are looking for an upset, this is the match to consider. Sock continues to improve as he gains experience. Wawrinka commands a higher line, and to a certain degree respect, because of his ranking, but I am not sure it is totally warranted. He has not been that impressive since his win at Roland Garros last year. Lets also not forget his loss in the second round of Wimbledon to Juan Martin Del Potro. Sock has the game as well as the power to play with Wawrinka. It will not be easy for him to pull off the upset, but this is probably your best shot at finding one of the major seeds this week to go down early.