Last Updated: 2016-07-31
Toronto Finals + Atlanta Preview:
- Analysis of the finals match in Toronto between Novak Djokovic and Kei Nishikori is below; however, a few notes on the upcoming week and the tournament in Atlanta should be noted.
- The field in Atlanta is fairly strong for an ATP 250 event. The top four seeds, John Isner, Nick Kyrgios, Kevin Anderson, and Alexandr Dogopolov should make for very competitive tennis matches.
- Atlanta is another Hard Court tournament, where you can expect to see many close matches and certainly some upsets.
- A lot of the lower ranked players are trying to get their ranking up in order to automatically qualify for the U.S. Open. This is one of the few remaining tournaments until then and you will therefore see a lot of “lesser known” talent who have a lot to play for.
Novak Djokovic -650 v. Kei Nishikori +450
- As the line indicates, Djokovic enters the finals as the heavy favorite and with good reason. He holds a Head to Head record of 9-2 against Nishikori, having won the previous eight matches they’ve played. Djokovic has won 29 ATP 1000 Master Events compared to Nishikori’s 0. His form is seemingly back to what it was pre his Wimbledon loss and there are few signs that indicate Djokovic will not come out victorious. With that being said, a line of -650, especially for a final, is extremely high and something I would be wary of. The statistics and logic all point to a Djokovic victory; however, with a line that high, you virtually loose all of your value and there is still some risk going up against any player who has been able to make it to a final, let alone an established top ten player. Conversely, even though there is great value on taking Nishikori at +450, his chances of winning appear to be slim. He did beat Novak in the 2014 U.S. Open SF but weird things can happen to players at the U.S. Open, especially if they are coming off a long season. Nishikori definitely has the game and ability to beat Djokovic but at this point in his career and development, a Nishikori victory will be anything but easy. Nishikori to win a set at a line of +160 could be worth taking a look at if you are a big Nishikori fan. There is a far greater chance he is able to win a set against Djokovic, but even that will not be an easy task. In the last five matches, on hard court, (Nishikori actually has a lot more success in spring clay events) between Nishikori and Djokovic, Nishikori has been able to win a set only once. The other four matches, all Djokovic straight set victories. With that being the case, if you are very high on Djokovic, maybe you want to take Djokovic to win in straight sets. That brings the line down from -650 to somewhere around -200. There are a lot of different ways to approach this match and I would consider much of the history + stats before making any decisions.