The TCU Horned Frogs (21-10, 9-9 Big 12) clash with the Kansas State Wildcats (21-10, 10-8 Big 12) in the Big 12 Conference Tourney at Sprint Center. The Wildcats opened as 2.5-point underdogs. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 145.5 points and it will air on ESPN2 at 12:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 8, 2018.
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats ATS Odds
In their last game, the Wildcats beat the Baylor Bears, 77-67, while the Horned Frogs fell to the 12th-ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders, 79-75.
Kansas State played a nearly flawless game. They had a turnover percentage of 14.2 (better than their season average of 15.4) and a free throw rate of 0.380 (above their season average of 0.250). For those same stats, Baylor recorded marks of 19.4 and 0.327, respectively. TCU, meanwhile, held Texas Tech to an offensive rebounding percentage of 11.1 (below their season average of 33.9). Dean Wade led the way for Kansas State, contributing 25 points and seven rebounds. TCU, meanwhile, received a boost from Vladimir Brodziansky, who recorded 16 points and 10 rebounds.
Kansas State appears to have the advantage on the offensive side of the ball. The Wildcats rank 86th in offensive efficiency, while the Horned Frogs rank 256th in defensive efficiency. Furthermore, the Horned Frogs, who rank 18th in offensive rebounding percentage (35.1 percent), will try to take advantage of the Wildcats, who rank 330th in defensive rebounding percentage (67.0 percent).
Vegas has a tendency to set the total low when the Horned Frogs are involved, as 20 of their 30 games have ended over the projected point total. TCU comes into the contest with records of 21-10 straight up (SU) and 16-12-2 against the spread (ATS).
Contrary to TCU, games including the Wildcats tend to finish under the projected point total (60.7 percent). Further, Kansas State owns records of 21-10 SU and 13-15 ATS.
Wade and Barry Brown Jr. have been playing well over the last five games for Kansas State. Wade has averaged 17.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.2 blocks, while Brown Jr. has recorded 21.2 points and 1.4 steals a game during that span.
The Horned Frogs evened the season series at one with a 66-59 win in their most recent game. Wade scored a game-high 24 points. One of TCU’s largest strengths was getting to the charity stripe. They made 26 trips to the line, while Kansas State went just eight times. The two teams combined to put up 125 points, which was well under the projected point total of 146.5, and TCU covered as a 7-point favorite.
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats Odds Pick
TCU ranks 96th in rebounds per game (36.5) while Kansas State ranks 283rd (30.5).
The Wildcats rank 23rd in steals per game (7.8) while the Horned Frogs rank 126th in steals allowed per game (6.2).
The Wildcats rank 21st in blocks allowed per game (2.4) while the Horned Frogs rank 186th (4.3).
Kansas State ranks 95th in assists allowed per game (12.5) while TCU ranks 260th (15.8).
The Horned Frogs are 4-0-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Wildcats are 3-2.
In their last five games, TCU has 4 overs and 1 under, while Kansas State has 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push.
The Horned Frogs’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.8, up from 7.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Wildcats have scored an average of 69.8 points per game (2.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 66.6 points per game (0.9 below their season average).