Looking to win big? The Texans and Mavericks face off at 8:00 ET on ESPN+. The Mavericks are hosting the game at College Park Center in Arlington, TX. The over/under for this game is set at 141.5 points, and UT Arlington is favored by -5 vs. Tarleton State in a Western Athletic conference matchup.


The Pick: UT Arlington Mavericks -5

This game will be played at College Park Center at 8:00 ET on Thursday, February 15th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 86-62 in favor of the Mavericks.
  • Not only will UT Arlington pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 141.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 148 points.

Taking a Look at the Texans Chances in Arlington

Despite being the underdog, Tarleton State has been playing well lately, as they have won five straight games. They have gone 10-3 in Western Athletic Conference play, and they are 17-7 overall. On the road, the Texans have gone 7-5, and their average scoring margin is -4.8 points per game. Their last game was an 82-77 win over Seattle.

Over their last 10 road games, Tarleton State has gone 6-4, and their record as the underdog is 6-5. So far this season, the Texans have been the underdog 11 times, and they have gone 6-5 in those games. For the year, they have gone 8-2 when they are favored.

As the underdog, Tarleton State has been solid vs. the spread this season, going 7-4. On the road, the Texans are 8-4 vs. the spread and have gone 3-0 in their last three road games vs. the spread. Overall, Tarleton State has an ATS mark of 13-8 this season.

Today’s over/under line of 141.5 is slightly higher than the average over/under line in Tarleton State’s games this season (137.6). So far, 10 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2, and the average scoring total in those games is 143 points.

Tarleton State recently showcased a strong offensive performance, scoring 82 points against Seattle. This output exceeded their season average of 72 points per game. Jakorie Smith is the current leading scorer for the team, with an average of 15.5 as they approach today’s matchup. In addition, Lue Williams brings a PPG average of 13.9 into the game.

So far, the Texans’ defense is ranked 58th in the country at 67.0 points per contest. So far, the Tarleton State defense is giving up an average of 9.1 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 10.9 times per game (483rd).

Will UT Arlington Make it Happen at Home?

UT Arlington will look to bounce back from a one-point loss to California Baptist in their last game. The Mavericks’ record on the season is 12-12, and they are 6-6 in Western Athletic Conference play. At home, UT Arlington is 6-2 this season, and they have gone 8-2 in their last ten games at home.

For the season, the Mavericks have been favored in ten games, going 8-2 in those contests. Their average scoring margin at home is +7.0 points per game, while they have gone 4-1 in their last five games at home.

As the favorite, UT Arlington has an ATS record of 8-2 this season and they are 6-2 vs. the spread at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Mavericks are 8-2 vs. the spread.

UT Arlington’s over/under record this season sits at 13-8 and today’s line of 141.5 is lower than the average OU line in their games this year (145.4). So far, 16 of their matchups have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 137 points.

Against California Baptist, the UT Arlington had a tough time putting up points compared to their season average of 73.6 points per game. They scored 63 points and posted a field goal percentage of 44.8% in the game. Offensively, the Mavericks have a season long field goal percentage of 42%, which is 314th in the nation. In terms of three-pointers, they are 262nd in percentage and 73rd in three-pointers made.

In terms of defense, UT Arlington is currently on par with the NCAA average for points allowed, giving up an average of 72.7 points per game. In today’s game vs. Tarleton State, the UT Arlington defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, UT Arlington made 17 free-throws vs. the Mavericks.