Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles Free Pick 07/12/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-07-12

Tommy Pham and the Tampa Bay Rays are traveling north to play their AL East nemesis Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park. The matchup will begin at 7:05 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to Mid-Atlantic Sports Network to catch the game.

Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles Odds

Oddsmakers are listing Tampa Bay (-140) as the favorite over Baltimore (+130). The total sits at 9.5 runs and bettors can wager on either the over or the under for -110. There’s a runline of Rays -1.5 (+105) and Orioles +1.5 (-125) for this matchup.

The Orioles are only 27-62 straight up (SU) and 37-52 against the spread (ATS). The team has lost 17.5 units for moneyline bettors and 21.1 units ATS. The Rays have gone 52-39 SU this year and are 48-43 ATS. They’ve lost 1.9 units for moneyline gamblers, but have gained 1.4 units ATS.

Baltimore games have an over/under record of 45-39-5 so far in 2019. Tampa Bay has been a decent under bet with a total record of 38-47-6.

Yonny Chirinos will get the start for Tampa Bay. The right-handed Chirinos is 7-4 with a 3.15 ERA and 81 strikeouts. He’s 1-1 with eight strikeouts and a 2.19 ERA against Baltimore this year.

The Orioles are sending righty Dylan Bundy (4-10, 4.65 ERA) to the mound. Bundy has 96 strikeouts and 32 walks as well as a 1.30 WHIP. Bundy is 1-1 with nine strikeouts and a 2.19 ERA over two starts against Tampa Bay this year.

As a unit, Baltimore’s pitchers have yielded 6.1 runs per game overall this year. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 5.26, a WHIP of 1.39 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.0. The bullpen has a 6.21 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 8.9 K/9. In 39 games against divisional foes, Orioles starters have an ERA of 4.62 and the bullpen’s ERA is 6.74.

The Baltimore hitters are putting up 4.2 runs per outing, including 4.0 per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over their last five. The team has hit .228/.290/.409 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.

The Orioles’ batters have been led by right fielder Trey Mancini and second baseman Jonathan Villar. Mancini is hitting .291/.351/.517 with 17 home runs, 40 RBIs and 56 runs scored, and Villar’s line is .259/.326/.421 with 10 homers, 37 RBIs, 55 runs and 17 stolen bases.

In the visiting dugout, Tampa Bay’s pitchers have allowed 3.7 runs per game and its starters own a 3.01 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 10.06 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.71, along with a WHIP of 1.06 and a K-per-9 of 9.01.

Rays hitters have slashed .254/.327/.423 on their way to 4.6 runs scored per game this year, including 4.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Outfielders Tommy Pham and Avisail Garcia continue to lead Tampa Bay’s hitters. Pham is slashing .281/.379/.460 with 13 home runs, 38 RBIs, 42 runs and eight stolen bases, while Garcia (.276/.333/.445) is up to 12 homers, 43 RBIs, 39 runs and nine steals.

The Rays have lost 2.0 units and are 30-28 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 27 of those games, compared to 26 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Orioles have lost 10.4 units and are 25-30 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 27 of those games, as opposed to 25 which went under the total.

Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Rays, ATS Winner – Rays, O/U – UNDER


Betting Notes

The under has cashed in four of Baltimore’s last seven games.

The Rays have a team OPS of .750 this season and an OPS of .761 against right-handed pitchers. The Orioles’ OPS sits at .706 overall and .692 versus righties.

Baltimore has recorded 23.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 20.6 over its last five.

The Rays have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Orioles have hit 16 over their last 10.

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2019 MLB Betting Guide

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