Las Vegas NFL SuperContest Picks & Consensus Week 1

Date | AuthorAdam Burke

Last Updated: 2019-07-15

The end of the regular season and the start of the NFL playoffs is upon us. That also means the end of the Westgate SuperContest. Lives will change on Sunday night and there will be others that will second guess and rehash several games from this past season when they finish outside of the money. It has been another interesting ride in the world’s ultimate handicapping contest for 2018.

Before I get into the specifics of the picks and all of that, thanks to everybody that followed along over the course of the season. Big thanks go out to Joe Everett and Wes Reynolds for joining me on BangTheBook Radio to rap about the SuperContest over the course of the season. It was an honor to be a part of the festivities again this season and also to give the SuperContest Gold a chance for the first time.

It will be another disappointing season out of the money for us here at BangTheBook. The BangTheBook Podcast entry rides into Week 16 on a 27-12-1 run, but it was too little, too late after a 10-25-5 start over the first eight weeks. The BangTheBook traditional entry was consistently solid and goes into this weekend with a 43-34-3 record. Our BangTheBook.com Gold effort is 41-36-3.

Making the money in this thing is a daunting task. By the simple law of averages with 3,123 contestants, it is going to take something extraordinary to finish in the top 10 or even finish in the top 100 and have something to show for 17 weeks of hard work. As we head into the final week, the cut-off for the money is 49.5 points. The lowest success rate to be in the money is at 62 percent. To be in the money for the winner-take-all SuperContest Gold, you would have to be over 52.5 points, which is a 66.2 percent score right now.

This year, with the largest SuperContest field ever, the top 100 plus ties got paid. It had been the top 50 in our years of being part of the fun. A prize pool of nearly $4.4 million dollars will be given out when all is said and done, including the quarterly prizes and the Mini SuperContest. For the second straight year, the first place prize exceeds six figures.

As we look to finish on a high note for the 2018 season, here are our Week 17 selections:

BangTheBook (43-34-3, 55.84%)

8 Jets +13.5

16 Browns +6

19 Bills -3.5

21 Colts -3

25 Vikings -4.5

 

BangTheBook Podcast (37-37-6, 50%)

2 Cowboys +6.5

16 Browns +6

19 Bills -3.5

21 Colts -3

32 49ers +10

 

BangTheBook.com (41-36-3, 53.25%)

8 Jets +13.5

16 Browns +6

19 Bills -3.5

21 Colts -3

25 Vikings -4.5

Week 17 comes with its share of challenges as players are sitting out and teams are looking to position themselves for the playoffs. Finding underdogs with some bite can be a little bit of a challenge, but we have a good mix of them on the card for this week. The BangTheBook and BangTheBook.com entries match up once again this week, as there were a lot of agreements across all three cards.

The Browns, Bills and Colts appear a lot, with the Jets narrowly missing the cut on the BangTheBook Podcast entry in favor of the 49ers. The Vikings game was a disagreement, but questionable motivation for Chicago is enough of a reason to put that to the side.

For those following the Golden Nugget, we’re off to a very slow start with losers on Miami Florida and Purdue. Our remaining picks are Nevada, Texans, Bills, Colts, and Pitt.

The field heads into Week 17 at 51.57 percent for the season and the Gold is at 53.29 percent. The top-five consensus is 41-39 in the traditional and 44-33-5 in the Gold, with matching picks in Week 2 and Week 15.

@Pigskin_Junkies will look to hold off Rush YYZ 2112, as they enter this week with a one-point lead. It’s hard to see anybody outside of those two winning, as Pigskin Junkies are up by 2.5 over the third place team.

There Can Be Only 1 leads the Gold by one point over Danny Polo 1. Lightning 2 is 1.5 points back. The winner takes all in the Gold, unless there is a tie for first and then there will be a split of the $640,000 first place prize.

Here are the lines, pick counts, and consensus for Week 17 (Gold count in parentheses):

1 Giants* 424 (11)

2 Cowboys (+6.5) 273 (11)

 

3 Chiefs* 481 (27) (Gold #5)

4 Raiders (+13.5) 297 (15)

 

5 Saints* 311 (13)

6 Panthers (+8.5) 345 (19)

 

7 Patriots* 263 (14)

8 Jets (+13.5) 484 (21)

 

9 Eagles 800 (consensus #4) (18)

10 Redskins* (+6.5) 342 (13)

 

11 Packers* 367 (14)

12 Lions (+8) 239 (9)

 

13 Texans* 670 (22)

14 Jaguars (+6.5) 335 (16)

 

15 Ravens* 479 (14)

16 Browns (+6) 904 (consensus #2) (29) (Gold #3)

 

17 Buccaneers* 333 (20)

18 Falcons (+1) 444 (21)

 

19 Bills* 847 (consensus #3) (38) (Gold #1)

20 Dolphins (+3.5) 184 (18)

 

21 Colts 972 (consensus #1) (28) (Gold #4)

22 Titans* (+3) 436 (22)

 

23 Steelers* 191 (6)

24 Bengals (+14.5) 377 (21)

 

25 Vikings* 758 (consensus #5) (32) (Gold #2)

26 Bears (+4.5) 515 (15)

 

27 Chargers 449 (12)

28 Broncos* (+6.5) 283 (9)

 

29 Seahawks* 316 (12)

30 Cardinals (+13.5) 218 (13)

 

31 Rams* 342 (9)

32 49ers (+10) 331 (13)

The top-five consensus is the Indianapolis Colts, Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, and Minnesota Vikings. Not a big surprise to see any of these teams listed.

The top-five consensus Gold is the Buffalo Bills, Minnesota Vikings, Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts, and Kansas City Chiefs. None of these are a surprise either.

Good luck to those in contention this weekend in the SuperContest, our BangTheBook SuperContest, and any personal SuperContests that you are in.

Thanks for hanging out with us this season!

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