2018 Westgate SuperContest Week 17 Recap

Date | AuthorAdam Burke

Last Updated: 2018-12-31

Another season is in the books in the Westgate SuperContest. Unfortunately, our trio of entries at BangTheBook finished outside of the money in the world’s hardest handicapping contest, but we showed well over the second half of the season and should have something to build on for 2019.

As we’ve talked about all season, it seems really easy to pick five NFL games against stale numbers that come out on Wednesday, but the degree of difficulty is not actually portrayed within the very basic rules. So much second guessing goes on in an event like this. Gamblers can be a pessimistic lot and balancing emotions is hard when the stakes are high and the margin for error is nil.

For example, BangTheBook Radio host Adam Burke went 31-13-1 over the last nine weeks of picks. That 70.5 percent success rate is what it takes for an entire season to be in the running to win this thing. A run like that for more than half of the season should be enough to get into the money, but a hellacious 10-25-5 start pretty much left that possibility for dead at the midpoint of the year. Add it up and it comes out to 41-38-6.

Still, a winning record is a huge accomplishment after being 15 games below .500. It just doesn’t pay anything.

The BangTheBook entry turned in another solid season with a 3-2 showing in Week 17. That entry finished out the year at 46-36-3. Our first collaborative effort in the SuperContest Gold came out with a 44-38-3 record.

Congratulations go out to Personal Gourmet, who came from out of nowhere to post a 5-0 and erase a 2.5-point deficit to win the 2018 SuperContest. That is one hell of a reminder to never take anything for granted, as I even posted in my preview for Week 17 that it was going to be very hard to beat @Pigskin_Junkies or Rush YYZ 2112 because of the gap in the standings. Well, I was wrong, and I apologize to those two entries for the jinx.

How significant is the increase from third place to first place? How about $1.12 million and change. Personal Gourmet will take home $1,422,214.20 before taxes.

Personal Gourmet finished at 59-25-1 with a 70.2 percent success rate. Rush YYZ 2112 and @Pigskin_Junkies will share second-place honors with a 59-26 record and a 69.4 percent success rate. They will both get $409,425.30 each. Al The Sly 2 finished fourth with a 58-26-1 record. 7_Out rounded out the top five at 56-27-2.

The top 100 plus ties got paid and the cut-off for the money wound up being 53 points and a minimum success rate of 62.4 percent.

In the SuperContest Gold, There Can Be Only 1 is in fact the only one, as that entry took down the winner-take-all $640,000 prize in the second annual Gold contest with a record of 55-27-3. Hammer 3 finished just one point off the pace at 55-29-1, but that means nothing in the Gold contest. Hammer 3 even went 5-0 in the last week to close the gap, but There Can Be Only 1 had only one losing pick.

There wound up being a 10-way tie for first in the Mini Contest, which means each competitor will get $2000 of the $20,000 prize pool.

Here are the final week-by-week results and the final records for the season:

  Wins Losses Ties Win Percentage
Week 1 8391 6066 1063 58.04%
Week 2 6015 9580   38.57%
Week 3 8429 7156   54.08%
Week 4 7809 6169 1622 55.87%
Week 5 6545 8106 929 44.67%
Week 6 7089 7655 816 48.08%
Week 7 8271 6246 1043 56.97%
Week 8 9502 6013   61.24%
Week 9 9185 6315   59.26%
Week 10 6514 7657 1344 45.97%
Week 11 7600 7855   49.12%
Week 12 7672 7708   49.88%
Week 13 7288 8027   47.59%
Week 14 8226 7009   53.99%
Week 15 7646 7589   50.19%
Week 16 7594 7081   51.75%
Week 17 8139 5871   58.09%
         
YTD Totals 131915 122103 6817 51.93%

The field ended on a really high note with its best success rate since Week 9. That is rather interesting because there were a fair number of people that put together contrarian cards in hopes of moving up, but the top-five consensus went 4-1 and the consensus overall went 11-5, so it was more than enough to overshadow those entries.

Here are the final week-by-week results and final records for the SuperContest Gold:

  Wins Losses Ties Win Percentage
Week 1 347 240 43 59.11%
Week 2 270 370   42.19%
Week 3 365 275   57.03%
Week 4 353 213 74 62.37%
Week 5 280 316 44 46.98%
Week 6 280 316 44 46.98%
Week 7 331 261 48 55.91%
Week 8 389 246   61.26%
Week 9 373 267   58.28%
Week 10 263 314 63 45.58%
Week 11 360 280   56.25%
Week 12 330 300   52.38%
Week 13 311 314   49.76%
Week 14 346 269   56.26%
Week 15 314 301   51.06%
Week 16 302 288   51.19%
Week 17 306 249   55.14%
         
YTD Totals 5520 4819 316 53.39%

Even with some more contrarian cards in the SuperContest Gold, that field came in at 55.14 percent to round out the season. The top-five consensus there also went 4-1 and the consensus came in at 11-4 with 11 picks for the Cowboys and Giants taking that game out of the equation.

Here are the pick counts and results for Week 17:

1 Giants* 424 (11)

2 Cowboys (+6.5) 273 (11)

 

3 Chiefs* 481 (27) (Gold #5)

4 Raiders (+13.5) 297 (15)

 

5 Saints* 311 (13)

6 Panthers (+8.5) 345 (19)

 

7 Patriots* 263 (14)

8 Jets (+13.5) 484 (21)

 

9 Eagles 800 (consensus #4) (18)

10 Redskins* (+6.5) 342 (13)

 

11 Packers* 367 (14)

12 Lions (+8) 239 (9)

 

13 Texans* 670 (22)

14 Jaguars (+6.5) 335 (16)

 

15 Ravens* 479 (14)

16 Browns (+6) 904 (consensus #2) (29) (Gold #3)

 

17 Buccaneers* 333 (20)

18 Falcons (+1) 444 (21)

 

19 Bills* 847 (consensus #3) (38) (Gold #1)

20 Dolphins (+3.5) 184 (18)

 

21 Colts 972 (consensus #1) (28) (Gold #4)

22 Titans* (+3) 436 (22)

 

23 Steelers* 191 (6)

24 Bengals (+14.5) 377 (21)

 

25 Vikings* 758 (consensus #5) (32) (Gold #2)

26 Bears (+4.5) 515 (15)

 

27 Chargers 449 (12)

28 Broncos* (+6.5) 283 (9)

 

29 Seahawks* 316 (12)

30 Cardinals (+13.5) 218 (13)

 

31 Rams* 342 (9)

32 49ers (+10) 331 (13)

 

Consensus record: 11-5

Top-five consensus record: 4-1

Final consensus record: 125-124-7

Final top-five consensus record: 45-40

 

Consensus record Gold: 11-4

Top-five consensus record Gold: 4-1

Final consensus record: 138-101-7

Final top-five consensus record: 48-34-5 (PHI/NYG Wk 2 & NE/SF Wk 15 same # of picks as Gold #5)

 

It’s been a fun ride. See you next season!

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