2017 Westgate SuperContest Week 17 Recap

Last Updated: 2018-01-01

supercontest recap week 17The 2017 Westgate SuperContest is officially in the books. We certainly had some drama in the winner-take-all SuperContest Gold, where Stag Capital needed a Tampa Bay win to take down the $470,000 top prize by a half-point over Midwest Square. In the traditional SuperContest, there wasn’t a whole lot of drama, as Grannys Boy won by 1.5 points and did enough to hold off a 5-0 week from Schematic Advantage and a 4-1 week from HowDoIPlay XX, who tied for second.

The Mini Contest went to Prophets of Profits, who must have seen a 14-0-1 record coming over the final three weeks. Honorable mention to Singh Sports and Sunshine Smokers, who both went 13-1-1.

Here at BangTheBook.com, a 4-1 week from Adam Burke of the Bang The Book Podcast entry gave him sit bragging rights with a 44-40-1 record and 44.5 points. The winners were on the Flacons, Colts, Vikings, and Cardinals, with a loser on the Jaguars. The BangTheBook.com entry went 2-3 and finished with a 42-42-1 record. The winnerw were the Falcons and 49ers, with losers on the Redskins, Raiders, and Broncos. It was an honor to be part of the SuperContest and, as I mentioned last week, big thanks go out to Vegas Matty for being our proxy again for this season.

The final verdict is that it took 52 points to make it into the money. That required a 61.4 percent or better record over 85 selections. This contest seems so simple, and the beauty of it may be in the simplicity of picking five NFL games each week against the spread, but those that have been in it can tell you that it is remarkably challenging. The amount of second-guessing, the amount of variance you need to overcome, and the consistency required are all just staggering. That being said, we certainly encourage all of our readers that followed along throughout the season to join next year.

You do have to sign up in person, so keep that in mind. If you live outside of the state of Nevada, you will need a proxy to submit your picks for you, which does require an additional fee, but the ease of using a proxy is well worth the investment.

Here are the final week-by-week results for the traditional SuperContest:

  Wins Losses Ties Win Percentage
Week 1 4999 7772 899 39.14%
Week 2 7050 6615   51.61%
Week 3 6497 7208   47.41%
Week 4 7671 6034   55.97%
Week 5 6419 6541 735 49.53%
Week 6 6556 7124   47.92%
Week 7 4344 8482 809 33.87%
Week 8 6905 6700   50.75%
Week 9 7225 5402 943 57.22%
Week 10 5908 7275 352 44.82%
Week 11 7932 5583   58.69%
Week 12 6783 5999 638 53.07%
Week 13 7798 5587   58.26%
Week 14 7229 6061   54.39%
Week 15 5191 4807 3347 51.92%
Week 16 6153 6787   47.55%
Week 17 6846 5184   56.91%
         
YTD Totals 111,506 109,181 7,723 50.53%

We had a great finishing week. There were only 12,030 selections, which means that only 2,406 of the 2,748 entrants we started with were active for the final week of the season. It was still a terrific week. The top-five consensus only went 3-2, but the 49ers were an easy winner for over 1,000 players and nine of the 11 least-selected sides lost.

 

Here are the week-by-week results for the SuperContest Gold:

  Wins Losses Ties Win Percentage
Week 1 199 230 36 46.39%
Week 2 239 226   51.40%
Week 3 246 219   52.90%
Week 4 258 207   55.48%
Week 5 231 204 30 53.10%
Week 6 234 226   50.87%
Week 7 136 292 37 31.78%
Week 8 212 253   45.59%
Week 9 222 212 26 51.15%
Week 10 192 254 14 43.05%
Week 11 264 196   57.39%
Week 12 221 207 22 51.64%
Week 13 260 175   59.77%
Week 14 248 192   56.36%
Week 15 173 153 114 53.07%
Week 16 205 225   47.67%
Week 17 233 172   57.53%
         
YTD Totals 3,773 3,643 279 50.88%

A strong week in the SuperContest Gold bumped the season success rate to 50.88 percent. The 0.35 percent gap between the two fields is much lower than I expected it to be as the year went along, but it has been pretty consistent since the sample size reached a respectable number. Obviously there were a lot more selections in the traditional SuperContest.

Once again, the cut-off for the money (top 50 plus ties) was 52 points in the traditional SuperContest. That was the winning point total in the SuperContest Gold. It’s fair to wonder what the field sizes look like next year. In the SuperContest, 57 of the 2,748 entrants made it into the money, which represented two percent of the field. In the Gold, the winner-take-all event, 1.06 percent of the field cashed, the person that had the most points. The larger entry fee is a deterrent, but two entries finished above 60 percent in the Gold. In the traditional SuperContest, 108 entries did, and only 57 of those made the money. It is an interesting decision from a risk-reward standpoint going forward.

Shout-out to Mucked Nuts for finishing in the money again in the SuperContest and for also being in the finals of the Golden Nugget Showdown. If you’re looking for a contest player to follow, outside of rounding again, of course, he’s your guy.

As I mentioned in my rant on Saturday, it is hard to go into Week 17 with these NFL teams. The Redskins were a popular pick among those in the money. Midwest Square lost the SuperContest because of them and HowDoIPlay XX wound up splitting second-place money instead of getting it outright. I guess it’s the nature of the beast, but it is such a tough pill to swallow.

For one final time, here are the pick counts, results, and consensus:

1 Ravens* 255 (9)

2 Bengals (+9.5) 137 (17)

 

3 Lions* 369 (13)

4 Packers (+6.5) 234 (8)

 

5 Bills 457 (10)

6 Dolphins* (+2.5) 369 (19) (tie consensus #4)

 

7 Falcons* 410 (15)

8 Panthers (+3.5) 585 (consensus #4) (19) (tie consensus #4)

 

9 Saints 431 (13)

10 Buccaneers* (+7) 312 (17)

 

11 Titans* 364 (9)

12 Jaguars (+3) 460 (18)

 

13 Patriots* 220 (14)

14 Jets (+15.5) 372 (9)

 

15 Colts* 583 (consensus #5) (21) (consensus #3)

16 Texans (+3.5) 121 (9)

 

17 Steelers* 240 (8)

18 Browns (+11) 666 (consensus #2) (26) (consensus #1)

 

19 Redskins 596 (consensus #3) (14)

20 Giants* (+3) 179 (4)

 

21 Vikings* 379 (10)

22 Bears (+11.5) 243 (6)

 

23 Cowboys 371 (9)

24 Eagles* (+3) 251 (9)

 

25 Chargers* 300 (10)

26 Raiders (+7.5) 393 (13)

 

27 Seahawks* 256 (6)

28 Cardinals (+9.5) 402 (15)

 

29 Broncos* 189 (6)

30 Chiefs (+3.5) 352 (18)

 

31 49ers 1045 (consensus #1) (25) (consensus #2)

32 Rams (+3) 189 (6)

 

Consensus record: 10-6

Top-five consensus record: 3-2

YTD consensus record: 121-124-9 (49.39%)

YTD top-five consensus record: 41-42-2 (49.40%)

 

Consensus record Gold: 10-5

Top-five consensus record Gold: 3-2

YTD consensus record Gold: 120-119-9 (KC/OAK Wk 7, MIN/CLE Wk 8, CIN/TEN & PIT/IND Wk 10, MIN/ATL Wk 12, WAS/ARI & PHI/NYG Wk 15, DAL/PHI Wk 17 same # of picks) (50.2%)

YTD top-five consensus record Gold: 42-40-3 (51.22%)

 

Week 17 Notes:

Last year’s winner, pops, had 55.5 points

The winners from 2015 to 2004 had (in chronological order): 60.5, 64.5, 57, 57.5, 60.5, 55.5, 54.5, 56.5, 55, 57.5, 59, and 52.5 points

We’ll look to wrap up the SuperContest with one more segment on Friday and then we’ll put it to bed for the next several months. Thank you for following along this season!

 

-END OF WEEK 17 RECAP-

 

Not all 5-0 records are created equal in the Westgate SuperContest. Getting one to extend your lead in Week 16 is about as good as it gets. With just five picks left in the world’s ultimate handicapping test, anything can happen, but it is nice to go into the last week controlling one’s own destiny. Hopefully we’ll know that feeling here at BangTheBook.com in next year’s SuperContest.

Week 17 is here. Life-changing money is on the line with some NFL games that mean something, some that mean absolutely nothing, and some where we don’t know what they mean. There are a ton of considerations this week for those that are in the hunt and those that are hoping to sneak up into the cash. As we look back at Week 16 and see how the field fared, we’ll keep an eye towards next weekend, when a champion will be crowned.

It was not a good Week 16 for us at BangTheBook.com. The BangTheBook.com entry went 0-5 and has 40.5 points on the season. The Bang The Book Podcast entry went 2-3 thanks to Philadelphia’s miracle cover and also has 40.5 points. It certainly isn’t the season that either of us had hoped for, but finishing over .500 would be a small measure of solace. All three plays that matched between the two cards lost, so we’ll see what Week 17 holds and see which entry is able to pick up site bragging rights for the 2017 season.

The losers across both cards were the Jets, Bills, and Jaguars. The Bang The Book Podcast entry belonging to Adam Burke had winners on the Titans and the Eagles. The other two losers for the BangTheBook.com entry were the Panthers and Texans.

Grannys Boy leads the way with five picks left to make. A 5-0 record could not have come at a better team, as the lead is now 2.5 points over HowDoIPlay XX, who now has 55 points and jumped up into second place. Biosoft Global is third with 54.5 points. Schematic Advantage is fourth with 54 points. Grand Dragon and Biosoft Sports are tied with 53 points.

Over in the SuperContest Gold, Midwest Square and BKSF share the top spot with 47.5 points. Stag Capital and BrettFavre444 are only a half-point off the pace in the winner-take-all inaugural contest. The winner will get $470,000. The second-place finisher will have paid $5,000 to have a story to tell.

In the Mini Contest, three entries, Singh Sports, Prophets of Profits, and Sunshine Smokers, have gone 9-0-1 over the last two weeks. Six entries are 9-1 over the last two weeks and have a good shot at winning the $15,000 prize. A whole slew of entries are 8-1-1 after the three games that pushed from Week 15.

Here are the week-by-week results for the traditional SuperContest:

Wins Losses Ties Win Percentage
Week 1 4999 7772 899 39.14%
Week 2 7050 6615 51.61%
Week 3 6497 7208 47.41%
Week 4 7671 6034 55.97%
Week 5 6419 6541 735 49.53%
Week 6 6556 7124 47.92%
Week 7 4344 8482 809 33.87%
Week 8 6905 6700 50.75%
Week 9 7225 5402 943 57.22%
Week 10 5908 7275 352 44.82%
Week 11 7932 5583 58.69%
Week 12 6783 5999 638 53.07%
Week 13 7798 5587 58.26%
Week 14 7229 6061 54.39%
Week 15 5191 4807 3347 51.92%
Week 16 6153 6787 47.55%
YTD Totals 104,660 103,997 7,723 50.16%

The first bad week since Week 10 is in the books. The top-two consensus plays lost, though the picks were spread out once again. The three least-selected sides all covered, so that hurt the field a bit. Only 2,588 of the 2,748 entrants that we started with submitted picks this week and you can bet that the number will be even lower next week. Six of the top nine picks lost and, voila, that’s how you get a 47.55 percent week.

Here are the week-by-week results for the SuperContest Gold:

Wins Losses Ties Win Percentage
Week 1 199 230 36 46.39%
Week 2 239 226 51.40%
Week 3 246 219 52.90%
Week 4 258 207 55.48%
Week 5 231 204 30 53.10%
Week 6 234 226 50.87%
Week 7 136 292 37 31.78%
Week 8 212 253 45.59%
Week 9 222 212 26 51.15%
Week 10 192 254 14 43.05%
Week 11 264 196 57.39%
Week 12 221 207 22 51.64%
Week 13 260 175 59.77%
Week 14 248 192 56.36%
Week 15 173 153 114 53.07%
Week 16 205 225 47.67%
YTD Totals 3,540 3,471 279 50.49%

It was a rough week in the SuperContest Gold as well. The five least-selected sides won, so even though the top-two consensus picks came in, including the Bengals, who were taken by 38 entrants, it was still a down week. With a 0.33% gap between the traditional and the Gold, it looks like the Gold will hold year-long bragging rights, but it is a lot closer than most would have expected.

The games with consensus differences this week were Cowboys vs. Seahawks, Cardinals vs. Giants, Redskins vs. Broncos, Rams vs. Titans, Chargers vs. Jets, and Vikings vs. Packers. Those games were 4-2 to the traditional SuperContest side, so they are now 41-39-6 to the Gold side. That is interesting, to say the least.

In terms of aliases that we know, there aren’t a whole lot of contenders for the cash. Mucked Nuts is tied for 42nd in the traditional SuperContest, continuing his strong run as a contest player. Joe Peta’s Trading Bases entry is in the running for the Mini Contest at 9-1. Once again, we’ll likely see a lot of players double dip and play the SuperContest Gold or simply play that one. One entry is at 60 percent in the Gold. Sixty percent is barely good enough to be in the top 100 in the traditional SuperContest and only the top 50 plus ties get paid.

Here are the lines, pick counts, the consensus, and results for Week 16:

1 Ravens* 293 (16)

2 Colts (+13.5) 266 (15)

 

3 Vikings 423 (8)

4 Packers* (+9) 397 (23) (consensus #3)

 

5 Lions 541 (7)

6 Bengals* (+4.5) 558 (38) (consensus #1)

 

7 Chargers 432 (6)

8 Jets* (+6.5) 312 (12)

 

9 Rams 766 (consensus #1) (15)

10 Titans* (+6.5) 559 (consensus #5) (24) (consensus #2)

 

11 Bears* 212 (5)

12 Browns (+6.5) 461 (22) (consensus #4)

 

13 Panthers* 414 (14)

14 Buccaneers (+10) 197 (9)

 

15 Saints* 671 (consensus #3) (16)

16 Falcons (+5.5) 536 (13)

 

17 Redskins* 426 (10)

18 Broncos (+3.5) 241 (14)

 

19 Chiefs* 214 (5)

20 Dolphins (+10.5) 268 (12)

 

21 Patriots* 244 (6)

22 Bills (+11.5) 519 (14)

 

23 Jaguars 694 (consensus #2) (14)

24 49ers* (+4.5) 519 (19) (consensus #5)

 

25 Cardinals* 232 (6)

26 Giants (+3.5) 227 (16)

 

27 Cowboys* 606 (consensus #4) (12)

28 Seahawks (+4.5) 464 (15)

 

29 Steelers 286 (9)

30 Texans* (+9) 296 (14)

 

31 Eagles* 450 (14)

32 Raiders (+8.5) 216 (7)

 

Consensus record: 7-9

Top-five consensus record: 2-3

 

YTD consensus record: 111-118-9 (NE/TB Wk 5 same # picks) (48.47%)

YTD top-five consensus record: 38-40-2 (48.72%)

 

Consensus record Gold: 6-10

Top-five consensus record Gold: 2-3

 

YTD consensus record: 110-114-9 (KC/OAK Wk 7, MIN/CLE Wk 8, CIN/TEN & PIT/IND Wk 10, MIN/ATL Wk 12, WAS/ARI & PHI/NYG Wk 15 same # of picks) (49.11%)

YTD top-five consensus record Gold: 39-38-3 (50.65%)

 

Week 16 Notes:

The field was just shy of 50 percent at 49.99 percent heading into Week 17 last year

The BangTheBook.com entry was 43-35-2 last season; the Bang The Book Podcast entry was 37-41-2

Rounding again had the title locked up in 2015 at this point

There were three 10-0 entries in the Mini Contest in 2015, but none last year and there are none this year

Last year’s leader, Orange Crush, had 52.5 points; this year’s, Grannys Boy, has 57.5

 

Follow along each week with our SuperContest preview article on Saturday and our recap article on Tuesday. Check out our Friday editions of BangTheBook Radio for the Westgate SuperContest Selections segment with host Adam Burke and a TBD guest.

 

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