2017 Westgate SuperContest Week 11 Recap

 

Last Updated: 2017-11-22

week 11 supercontest recapWe roll on into one of the most unique weeks of the Westgate SuperContest. Week 12 features three Thursday games on Thanksgiving. In total, eight teams will be playing with short rest. If you take a look at the board, you see a few enormous double-digit spreads. Even with three Thursday games, lines are still released at the same time on Wednesday. Proxies are asking for picks earlier because of the Thursday games and the holidays. Not to mention, the obvious distractions with family obligations. It will be a tough week.

But, before we look ahead to that, we have to review Week 11. For one of our BangTheBook entries, it was a good one. For our other BangTheBook entry, it was not. The BangTheBook.com entry went 3-2 with winners on the Ravens, Eagles, and Falcons to move to 29-25-1. The losers were on the Titans and Broncos. Our Bang The Book Podcast entry suffered a second 1-4 in a row and the fourth of the season to fall to 26-29. The lone winner hit the board on the Eagles, which was the top consensus pick. The losers were on the Titans, the f*cking Browns, Broncos, and Raiders.

The 2,748 entrants in the SuperContest have had to deal with a lot this season. It has been one of those weird NFL years where favorites and public bettors do really well, which has helped some entrants more than others. It has also been a year with horrendous quarterback play league-wide and a ton of injuries. As we press on with the final 30 picks of the season, motivations are changing. Some people are fighting for top spots and others are fighting to get into the money. Most are just picking for pride at this point. Others are looking to go contrarian to try and shoot up the board. Others have outright quit and might come back for the Mini Contest.

The cut-off for the money right now is 34 points, which includes the top 50 plus ties. Grand Dragon made a big leap up the standings with one of the 179 5-0 cards for this week and now leads with 38 points. Schematic Advantage also hit a 5-0 and sits in a tie for second with Biosoft Sports at 37.5 points. The Ville, Seoul Cycle, Grannys Boy, and Biosoft Global are all tied for fourth with 37 points. Angel of Vengeance stands alone in eight with 36.5 points. Volare Cieco is alone in ninth with 36 points after a big 5-0 week. Three entries are tied with 35.5 points for 10th.

BKSF went 3-2 and still leads the SuperContest Gold by 2.5 points over Michael Peffercorn. LV Sports, BrettFavre444, and Benson are all tied for third with 31.5 points.

It was a really good week for the contest field overall with an average of 2.88 points per team. In fact, it was the best week of the season.

Here are the week-by-week results for the traditional SuperContest:

Wins Losses Ties Win Percentage
Week 1 4999 7772 899 39.14%
Week 2 7050 6615 51.61%
Week 3 6497 7208 47.41%
Week 4 7671 6034 55.97%
Week 5 6419 6541 735 49.53%
Week 6 6556 7124 47.92%
Week 7 4344 8482 809 33.87%
Week 8 6905 6700 50.75%
Week 9 7225 5402 943 57.22%
Week 10 5908 7275 352 44.82%
Week 11 7932 5583 58.69%
YTD Totals 71,506 74,736 3,738 48.90%

The year-to-date results improved by a full percentage point with such a great week for the field. The Eagles were a pick for 48.5 percent of the contest field and the Patriots hit the board for 40 percent of the field. The Lions were picked by 34.5 percent of the field. When the top four consensus plays win, we can get results like this and that is precisely what we got. Congratulations to everybody that had a good week.

Here are the week-by-week results for the SuperContest Gold:

Wins Losses Ties Win Percentage
Week 1 199 230 36 46.39%
Week 2 239 226 51.40%
Week 3 246 219 52.90%
Week 4 258 207 55.48%
Week 5 231 204 30 53.10%
Week 6 234 226 50.87%
Week 7 136 292 37 31.78%
Week 8 212 253 45.59%
Week 9 222 212 26 51.15%
Week 10 192 254 14 43.05%
Week 11 264 196 57.39%
YTD Totals 2,433 2,519 143 49.13%

The best week of the season for the SuperContest Gold also hit the board this week. The top-five consensus went 5-0, which explains why there was so much success, especially with 38 percent of the field on the Vikings and over 30 percent of the field on the Lions. It has been a struggle for the SuperContest Gold field, which is a little unexpected given the winner-take-all $5,000 buy-in, but professionals have had a tough season. That’s not to say that everybody in the Gold is a pro, but we expected this field to be a fair amount sharper than the traditional SuperContest field.

As far as those games with consensus differences, they were the Jaguars/Browns, Saints/Redskins, Buccaneers/Dolphins, and Chiefs/Giants. The Jaguars and Buccaneers covered for the traditional and the Redskins and Giants covered for the Gold, so it was an even 2-2 split and the year-to-date record favors this Gold side 30-23-2.

This season has been a frustrating one at BangTheBook. Originally, discussions between Ryan, our site owner, and Adam Burke of the Bang The Book Podcast centered on a lot of the same picks. Adam deviated a bit to add the Raiders and Browns and both plays backfired as the big dogs failed to cover. There was a little bit of second-guessing about locking in plays early to take the Titans, but it looked like a good play on a weak board. It turned out that it was not, as Marcus Mariota had his first career four-interception game at the worst of times.

Checking in on some other notables in the field, CH Ballers had a 3-2 week to move to 29-26 in a tie with a ton of entries in 677th place. Their Gold entry, El Chingon, is tied for 34th place with 27.5 points with a 26-25-3 record. Past winner Sans Souci went 2-3 and has 26.5 points in a tie for 1,404th place. Dave Tuley’s @ViewFromVegas entry went 2-3 and has 27 points. Our reigning champion “pops” has 22 points with both his pops3284 and pops2008 entries. His Gold entry, HollywooCDG, has 23 points and is tied for 83rd along with Walter Cherepinsky of WalterFootball.com. Right Angle Sports has 29 points in the SuperContest Gold and 29 points in the traditional SuperContest.

Here are the pick counts, lines, and results from Week 11:

1 Steelers* 181 (7)

2 Titans (+7) 207 (8)

 

3 Lions 928 (consensus #3) (29) (Gold #2)

4 Bears* (+2.5) 382 (21)

 

5 Chiefs 426 (8)

6 Giants* (+10.5) 300 (20)

 

7 Buccaneers 331 (11)

8 Dolphins* (PK) 320 (16)

 

9 Ravens 535 (17)

10 Packers* (+2) 474 (13)

 

11 Vikings* 749 (consensus #4) (35) (Gold #1)

12 Rams (+2) 561 (11)

 

13 Cardinals 209 (4)

14 Texans* (PK) 432 (27) (Gold #3)

 

15 Jaguars 421 (4)

16 Browns* (+7.5) 400 (14)

 

17 Saints* 586 (consensus #5) (11)

18 Redskins (+7.5) 433 (21)

 

19 Chargers* 561 (22)

20 Bills (+5.5) 251 (11)

 

21 Broncos* 583 (22)

22 Bengals (+2.5) 216 (7)

 

23 Patriots 1086 (consensus #2) (24) (Gold #5)

24 Raiders (+6.5) 329 (14)

 

25 Eagles 1306 (consensus #1) (25) (Gold #4)

26 Cowboys* (+3.5) 349 (20)

 

27 Seahawks* 506 (23)

28 Falcons (+2.5) 453 (15)

 

Consensus record: 9-5

Top-five consensus record: 4-1

YTD consensus record: 68-86-5 (NE/TB Week 5 same # of picks) (44.16%)

Top-five consensus record: 23-32 (41.82%)

 

Consensus record Gold: 9-5

Top-five consensus record: 5-0

YTD consensus record Gold: 73-78-5 (KC/OAK Wk 7, MIN/CLE Wk 8, CIN/TEN & PIT/IND Wk 10 same # of picks) (48.34%)

Top-five consensus record: 25-29-1 (46.30%)

Week 11 Notes:

The consensus was 10-3-1 last year and had its best week of the season to improve to 73-81-4; in 2015, the consensus was at 56.49% after Week 11

The leader, BNEV, had 37 points at this time last year and four entries had 36.5 points; the cut-off for the money was 34 points

The BangTheBook.com entry was 31-22-2 and just two points out of the money; the BangTheBook Podcast entry was 24-31; in 2015, BangTheBook.com had 26.5 points and Bang The Book Podcast had 27.5

In 2015, opposite sides of the same game hit the top-five on the board with the Vikings against the Packers

Follow along each week with our SuperContest preview article on Saturday and our recap article on Tuesday. Check out our Friday editions of BangTheBook Radio for the Westgate SuperContest Selections segment with host Adam Burke and Wes Reynolds, who will pinch hit for Sports Cheetah this week with the holiday.

 

 

-END OF WEEK 11 RECAP-

 

Some weeks, the SuperContest recap is really fun to write. This is not one of those weeks. The nature of this contest requires remarkable amounts of consistency (and luck) over 17 weeks. When you are on the wrong side of variance a couple too many times, it is downright depressing. For our two BangTheBook entries, 10 real-time minutes of football turned what could have been a decent week into an awful week and that makes all the difference in a contest like this.

With 2,748 entrants and a finite number of picks to make, playing catch-up in a contest like this is really, really difficult. Both of our entries are now forced to do that over the final 35 selections. Like anything else when it comes to gambling, you know the odds, but facing the cold, harsh reality of them takes some time to process. Think about it. Anytime the lottery is up to some obscene amount of money, even if you know the ridiculously small chance that your numbers are drawn, you play it and you start spending that money in your mind as a distraction from your day. At least it feels more tangible in the SuperContest.

Both entries turned in 1-4 cards this week. We weren’t the only entries to have a bad week, but with BangTheBook.com now in 533rd place and Bang The Book Podcast in 936th, back at .500, the frustration is certainly mounting. Reaching the top 50 isn’t impossible and the Mini Contest is still coming up, but this past NFL Sunday felt like that body blow that you cannot recover from.

In the span of about 10 minutes, the Jaguars had a game-winning, and, more importantly, game-covering touchdown taken off the board upon review on a questionable call and the Browns got front-doored and then threw an interception to slam the back door, with our fingers inside the frame. Those 10 minutes took a 3-2 record and turned it into a 1-4 record for the Bang The Book Podcast entry and took away a Browns cover from the BangTheBook.com entry. There were some awful handicaps this week, too, with the Bills and Dolphins getting run over, but you have to run well in the coin flip games. We did not.

We have a slight change at the top, as Biosoft Sports leapfrogged Biosoft Global and now holds the slimmest of leads with 34.5 points. Grannys Boy and Biosoft Global are tied for second with 34 points. VegasWeHaveAProblem4 has 33.5 points. Three entries are tied with 33 points. The home stretch is here, with only seven weeks worth of picks left to make. We had 41 no-shows last week out of the 2,748 entrants.

BKSF still leads the SuperContest Gold with 33 points after a 3-2 week. The lead is now 2.5 points over Michael Peffercorn. John_Merlyn went 3-2 and has 30 points. Two entries are tied with 29.5 points.

Here are the week-by-week results:

Wins Losses Ties Win Percentage
Week 1 4999 7772 899 39.14%
Week 2 7050 6615 51.61%
Week 3 6497 7208 47.41%
Week 4 7671 6034 55.97%
Week 5 6419 6541 735 49.53%
Week 6 6556 7124 47.92%
Week 7 4344 8482 809 33.87%
Week 8 6905 6700 50.75%
Week 9 7225 5402 943 57.22%
Week 10 5908 7275 352 44.82%
YTD Totals 63,574 69,153 3,738 47.90%

The picks were pretty spread out this past week, but the top three in the consensus lost, with the Bills, Jaguars, and Redskins all going down. The top 10 picks were 5-5, but picks 11, 12, and 13 all lost. The Bills were far and away the top consensus pick with 1,182 selections and they never came close to covering. After the best week of the season, the contest field endured the third-lowest win percentage of the season.

Here are the week-by-week results for the inaugural SuperContest Gold:

Wins Losses Ties Win Percentage
Week 1 199 230 36 46.39%
Week 2 239 226 51.40%
Week 3 246 219 52.90%
Week 4 258 207 55.48%
Week 5 231 204 30 53.10%
Week 6 234 226 50.87%
Week 7 136 292 37 31.78%
Week 8 212 253 45.59%
Week 9 222 212 26 51.15%
Week 10 192 254 14 43.05%
YTD Totals 2,169 2,323 143 48.29%

Another rough week for the SuperContest Gold with the second-lowest win percentage of the year. It has been a tough season for sharp guys on the gridiron overall with some rough win rates in college and some challenging NFL weeks. The top-five consensus is a mess now because the Broncos, Jaguars, and Vikings all tied with 25 picks and the Buccaneers and Redskins tied with 23 picks. Keep that in mind with the stat-keeping later in the article.

The games with consensus differences this week were Seahawks/Cardinals, Broncos/Patriots, Rams/Texans, Buccaneers/Jets, 49ers/Giants, Bears/Packers, and Vikings/Redskins. With a push on Seahawks/Cardinals, those games are now 28-21-2 to the Gold side.

The cut-off for the money sits at 30.5 points. Our BangTheBook.com entry has 26.5 points with a 26-23-1 record. The Bang The Book Podcast entry is 25-25. It will take a good string of winners to climb into the running with so many entries to jump over, but we’re not giving up hope just yet. We simply have to bounce back. This contest is a test of wills and a new week brings a new set of opportunities.

You can catch Adam’s Week 11 thoughts for the Bang The Book Podcast entry on this week’s Friday edition of BangTheBook Radio. Sports Cheetah will be unable to join us the next two weeks, but we’ll find a good pinch hitter to step in for him.

As far as an update on some other notables in the field, CH Ballers went 2-3 and now sits at 26-24 on the season. Their SuperContest Gold entry, El Chingon, went just 1-4 and has 25.5 points. Pops, our reigning champion, had a 3-2 week with the Pops2008 entry and has 21 points. His Pops3284 entry went 3-2 as well and is now 19-31. A 1-4 week for Sans Souci dropped that entry to 24.5 points. Dave Tuley’s @ViewFromVegas entry is 24-24-2 with 25 points.

Here are the pick counts, lines, and results from Week 10:

1 Seahawks 192 (6)

2 Cardinals* (+6) 160 (8) PUSH

 

3 Vikings 639 (25) (Gold #4)

4 Redskins* (+1) 703 (consensus #3) (23) (Gold #5)

 

5 Bears* 509 (14)

6 Packers (+5.5) 353 (21)

 

7 Steelers 451 (16)

8 Colts* (+10) 430 (16)

 

9 Jaguars* 719 (consensus #2) (25) (Gold #4)

10 Chargers (+3.5) 657 (15)

 

11 Jets 666 (consensus #5) (15)

12 Buccaneers* (+2.5) 457 (23) (Gold #5)

 

13 Titans* 397 (11)

14 Bengals (+4.5) 311 (11)

 

15 Saints 388 (9)

16 Bills* (+3) 1,182 (consensus #1) (44) (Gold #1)

 

17 Lions* 276 (2)

18 Browns (+12) 512 (27) (Gold #2)

 

19 Rams* 697 (consensus #4) (12)

20 Texans (+12) 256 (21)

 

21 Falcons* 645 (26) (Gold #3)

22 Cowboys (+3) 631 (8)

 

23 Giants 371 (12)

24 49ers (+2.5) 315 (14)

 

25 Patriots 578 (11)

26 Broncos* (+7.5) 369 (25) (Gold #4)

 

27 Panthers* 162 (7)

28 Dolphins (+9) 509 (13)

 

Consensus record: 3-10-1

Top-five consensus record: 2-3

YTD consensus record: 59-81-5 (NE/TB Week 5 same # of picks) (42.14%)

Top-five consensus record: 19-31 (38%)

 

Consensus record Gold: 5-6-1 (CIN/TEN & PIT/IND same # of picks)

Top-five consensus record: 1-4

YTD consensus record Gold: 64-73-5 (KC/OAK Wk 7, MIN/CLE Wk 8, CIN/TEN Wk 10, PIT/IND Wk 10 same # of picks)

Top-five consensus record: 20-29-1 (40.82%)

For accounting purposes, I’m going to use the 1-2 record of the games that tied for the fourth-highest pick counts as a consensus play, so it is a loser. That makes the top-five 1-4 in Week 10.

Week 10 Notes:

The BangTheBook.com entry was 28-20-2 at this point last year and was one point out of the money

The Bang The Book Podcast entry was 21-29

Rounding again was 39-9-2 at this point in 2015; last year’s, there was a five-way tie with 33.5 points

The consensus was at 44.68 percent last year at this point and the top-five consensus was at just 15-33-2

Week 10 was bad last season as well with a 3-11 consensus record and the top-five consensus went 0-5

Be sure to give BangTheBook Radio a listen this week for more SuperContest insight. Also, be on the lookout for our picks and consensus article on Saturday.

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