Last Updated: 2018-01-26
We’ll put the final touches on another profitable NFL season with the Super Bowl, where New England is favored by 5 and the total is 48. After a lackluster 26-26-1 regular season, we’ve gone 8-2-1 in the playoffs to stand at 34-28-2 for the season. Not our best season by any means, but a profitable one regardless.
Looking at the stats of this one makes you wonder if the wrong team is favored, but the sportsbooks simply had to make the Patriots the favorite due to public perception. Sure, the Eagles are getting 58% of the wagers in the game, but expect a few more people to back the Pats if the line drops to 4.5 or lower.
For the season, the Eagles average 28.3 points against teams who allow 21.6 points, while New England scored 28.7 points against teams who allow 22.2 points a game, so no real advantage there. On defense, the Eagles allow 17.3 points to teams averaging 21.0 points, while the Patriots allow 18.3 to teams averaging 21.1 points per game, so a slight edge to the Eagles, who should probably be favored by 1 on the basis of points.
The Patriots gain more yards, while the Eagles allow fewer yards, although Philadelphia may be able to be run the ball, which they do well, averaging 4.3 yards per carry against teams who allow 4.1, while the Patriots allow 4.6 yards per rush to teams averaging 4.3.
The Eagles also get the advantage in yards per play, averaging 5.7 yards per play and allowing 5.2, while the Pats gain 6.0 and allow 5.9.
This game could very well come down to how the Eagles are able to run the ball and if they can take time off the clock, keeping New England’s offense off of the field. If Philadelphia can take some of the pressure off of Foles, they could be in this one until the end. If they get behind early and have to throw, it could turn into a long day for the boys from the City of Brotherly Love.
The betting is a cause for a bit of concern, as they line dropped to 4.5 and is back up to 5 even though the Eagles went from 56 to 58% of the wagers, but the Super Bowl is such a big betting event, the wise guys aren’t going to have much of an effect on the lines. A number of bettors make the Super Bowl their biggest bet of the year and that money can take care of what the sharps do and it looks like a few might be on the Pats, but I’ll have to go the other way and grab the Eagles and the points and hope we have a decent game.
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