Super Bowl LIII Prop Bets: Tom Brady vs. Jared Goff Odds and Picks

Date | AuthorAdmir Aljic

Last Updated: 2019-01-28

The NFL Super Bowl LIII is just around the corner, so it’s time to take a look at QB props as we’ll see a tremendous duel between the young and super talented Jared Goff on one side and probably the GOAT Tom Brady on the other side. These two guys will meet each other for the second time, as New England outplayed the Rams 26-10 at home on December 4, 2016, in Goff’s rookie season while Brady broke QB wins record at the time, earning his 201st victory. Two years later, Goff is in his first Super Bowl, while Brady seeks for his sixth Vince Lombardi Trophy.

It will be an epic battle between the Patriots and the Rams, but our focus here will be on the proposition bets offered for the two QBs, Tom Brady and Jared Goff, so let’s see the most interesting wagers out there.

Player Total Pass Completions

Tom Brady 25.5; Jared Goff 24.5

Since he stepped into the league in 2016, Jared Goff has been averaging 20.3 completions per game, while Tom Brady has 23.9 completions per contest in that span. In his three playoff appearances, Jared Goff has 21.3 completions per contest. On the other side, Tom Brady has 30.8 completions per contest in eight playoff apps over the last three years. During this past regular season, Goff was averaging 22.7 completions per game, while Brady was tallying 23.4 completions per contest.

It seems like Brady in the over is a sure shot at -125 odds, especially because the Pats like to play screens and make short passes. On the other side, Goff is a tricky wager, but I would go with the over at -125 odds, as I’m expecting to see the Rams down in the second half which will force them to rely more on Jared’s hand.

Player Passing Attempts

Tom Brady 37.5; Jared Goff 36.5

Over the last three regular seasons, Tom Brady has 36.0 attempts per game, but that number increases to 46.4 attempts per game when the Patriots enter the playoffs. On the other side, Goff is taking 32.7 passing attempts per contest during his career, and in his three playoff appearances, Goff had 37.7 attempts per contest.

Once again, Brady in the over at -125 odds looks like an easy money, particularly if we get a close game down the stretch. The similar case is with Goff on the other side, but I would stick with the more experienced Brady on this one.

Total Passing Yards

Tom Brady 292.5; Jared Goff 273.5

While Jared Goff is averaging 252.1 yards per game in his career (playoff excluded), Tom Brady is tallying 283.8 yards per contest during that three-year span. In his three playoff games, Goff has just 247.3 yards per game, whilst Tom Brady has whopping 370.0 yards per contest in his previous eight playoff appearances. Goff was averaging 293.0 yards per outing this past regular season, and Brady was tallying 272.2 yards per contest. For the record, both Rams and Patriots possess some great running backs and will use them as much as they can.

Brady had 343 yards against the Chargers and 348 yards against the Chiefs, so I’m backing him to surpass a 300-yard mark once again and get me -120 wages. Goff has just 186 yards against Dallas and 297 yards against the Saints, so I would avoid him on this one, but if I have to, I would wager on the under at -120 odds.

Player Passing Touchdowns

Tom Brady 1.5; Jared Goff 1.5

The odds on the over are not tempting at all with Brady at -163 and Goff at -150. However, Brady has tossed for just two TD in the previous two games, while Goff has thrown for only one TD this post-season. As I’ve already mentioned, both teams rely a lot on their RB which makes this wager quite difficult. On the other hand, if we get a really tight game, someone should surpass this mark down the stretch, and I hope both of them will do.

Player Interceptions

Tom Brady 0.5; Jared Goff 0.5

While Brady has thrown for a couple of interceptions in his last two games, Goff has thrown for one pick against the Saints. Goff is at -150 odds on the over, whilst Brady is at -125 odds to throw for a pick which is quite tempting considering his 13 interceptions this season including playoffs. Interestingly, both teams have recorded 18 interceptions each during this past regular season.

Considering this is Goff’s first Super Bowl, he could be nervous enough to make some questionable plays that could lead to a pick, so I think he’s a better choice here. On the other hand, Brady is really prone to make mistakes this season.

Longest Pass Completion

Tom Brady 37.5; Jared Goff 37.5

The Rams have arguably a better receiving corps than the Patriots, so Jared Goff should have completion for at least 38 yards. But, when you notice that Goff’s longest completion this postseason amounts 39 yards, you realize it’s not an easy wager at all. On the other side, Brady’s longest completion in the last two games amounts just 35 yards, but in his previous seven post-seasons, Brady had a toss for at least 42 yards.

Considering the Pats are avoiding big plays, Brady in the under at -110 odds is my first choice, while I’m backing Goff in the over at -125 odds, hopping someone of his receivers will make at least one big play.

One more time for the record, both Rams and Pats have plenty of quality options in the backfield, so Goff and Brady will force the air only if they have to, but we’ll certainly see some two-minute offense on both sides as the end of the halves are nearing. Tom Brady is my favorite in this clash due to his experience and magical connection with Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski.

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