Last Updated: 2019-01-28
The New England Patriots are in the Super Bowl again. At least props bettors already have a blueprint on the Patr…no, actually, we don’t. It seems like there is a different hero every year for the Patriots. There are so many weapons for the New England offense and they’ve even added one this season with Sony Michel.
Will it be James White in the pass game? Will it be the possession game with Julian Edelman? Will Phillip Dorsett blow the top off the defense? Was Rob Gronkowski’s AFC Championship Game performance a precursor to the Super Bowl? Will it be Michel on the ground? How about Rex Burkhead? Does Chris Hogan make an appearance?
It really does make betting props on the Patriots a challenge. It is not an easy thing to do by any means. We have to try and put ourselves between the ears of the NFL’s most accomplished coach in the modern era in order to pick the right props. To say that’s easier said than done is an understatement.
Before looking at some specific options, it is worth pointing out that the Patriots have absolutely dominated time of possession in the playoffs. They’ve run 172 plays in two games. That means that there could be a lot of opportunities for players to rack up yards and receptions. It may turn out that we don’t need to be all that selective at all. But, we’ll have to see if that’s how the Super Bowl plays out.
In follow-up articles, which I will hyperlink in each article, I’ll be looking at game props, Rams player and team props, and the novelty/entertainment props. In each article, I’ll have anywhere from three to five of my favorite props for you to consider with my reasoning behind those picks.
1st Quarter Receiving Yards Julian Edelman Over 14.5 (-110, BetOnline) – Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels, and Tom Brady always want to establish something in the first quarter. Against the Chargers, it was James White as a receiver. Against the Chiefs, it was Sony Michel on the ground, with some Rob Gronkowski for good measure.
Edelman was targeted 40 times in the first quarter in the regular season, which was his highest total per quarter. Maybe Belichick wants to establish the ground and pound again, but my thought would be that the Patriots want to get off to a faster start. After all, they’ve scored three first quarter points in eight Super Bowls.
Edelman didn’t play in last year’s Super Bowl, but in Super Bowl LI, he was targeted twice on the first series, had a rushing attempt on the second series, and was targeted to start the third series. On the first play of the second quarter, Edelman caught a 27-yard pass.
I would expect Edelman to be a big part of the early game plan to get some timing going with two weeks off before the big game. Another play here is Edelman first half touchdown at +295 at 5Dimes. You could also play Edelman first Patriots touchdown at +550 and first touchdown for the game at +1000.
Rex Burkhead Rush Attempts Over 4.5 (-120, 5Dimes) – This one is too on-brand to go under. Since returning in Week 13, Burkhead has had 7, 4, 4, 13, 5, 4, and 12 carries, so this looks like a pretty good line on the surface. There is some sweat equity in pounding Burkhead up the gut. It will force guys like Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers to put forth some additional effort to try and get off blocks and make tackles. It’s basically a way for the Patriots to play the long game.
In fact, I’d sort of expect Burkhead to be the first back to get some work. Sony Michel’s skill set can really play up nicely in the second half of this game if the Patriots can muck the game up at the line of scrimmage and tire out the Rams early. You can also run Burkhead out of max protect, which makes some sense from an audible standpoint for Tom Brady.
Trey Flowers Under 0.5 Sacks (-145, BetOnline) – Rob Havenstein and Andrew Whitworth both graded as top 15 offensive tackles during the regular season and the Rams had one of the best adjusted sack rates in the NFL. With Deatrich Wise battling injuries late in the season, Flowers is the pass rusher that Goff and McVay need to worry about. He only had 7.5 sacks in the regular season and this price is influenced a bit by the fact that he’s had a sack in each of the last two playoff games. I’d expect him to be fairly quiet in this game.
Double Result New England & New England (+173, 5Dimes) – I’ve had this sneaking suspicion in the lead-up to the game that this is a dominating Patriots effort. This Patriots team isn’t on par with others that we’ve seen, but after the 28-3 deficit in Super Bowl LI, the 41-33 loss in Super Bowl LII, and the way that this season had looked up until the playoffs, it feels like the Patriots are pulling a Golden State Warriors here.
They have the more experienced quarterback and coach. In a lot of ways, they have the better defense. They have a healthier complement of offensive weapons. The biggest difference between this year’s Super Bowl and last year’s is that Jared Goff cannot improvise like Nick Foles. He’s more of a plant your feet and throw quarterback and those are the guys that the Patriots should have more success against.
You can also bet some alternative spreads and things of that sort, but the Double Result prop has caught my attention for a while.
BetDSI and BetOnline each have this at +140.
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