Last Updated: 2018-01-30
Super Bowls leave no shortage of betting options, but you really need to have realistic expectations. Handicapping the way a game will go is a lot different than speculating on the first song of the halftime performer or on the President’s Twitter account. Barring some sort of inside information or a leak, you should approach the novelty props as what they are. They are for fun. You’re not getting rich off of these things. If you are, you are the one percent of the one percent.
Cross-sport props may offer up some good opportunities. Those would be the preferred approach when it comes to the props that aren’t entirely attached to the game between the Eagles and Patriots. We’ll be looking at some of those options in this props piece.
I’ve already covered the Game Props, the Eagles Team/Player Props, and the Patriots Team/Player Props with some options that I’ve been looking at and some things that merit a lot of consideration. These novelty props are some fun things that I think we may have some edges on, but I wouldn’t go overboard with any of them. The cross-sport props, we should have some better edges.
If you really want to go hard with the novelty props, you can. You can research the Gatorade color in New England’s seven Super Bowls under Belichick and five under Brady. You can check out Matt Patricia’s hoodie game. You can handicap the Hoodie’s color choice. You can handicap the National Anthem. If you feel confident, feel free. For me, I’m going to stick mostly to the game itself. But, there are a few that I have considered:
Pink National Anthem
This year is different in that we don’t really have any past performances to go off of. The last three years, we’ve had a sample size to compare to and we don’t have that this year. The line is 120 seconds, with the over juiced, as each of the last three renditions have gone over the total.
I’m not so sure here. Pink has some slower and melodic songs in her catalog, but she doesn’t really drag out notes the way that some performers do on those tracks. She isn’t a country artist, so there isn’t that sort of expectation of YEAH, AMERICA from her, though her father did serve in Vietnam. She isn’t a Broadway singer like Idina Menzel. She isn’t about the spotlight like Alicia Keys.
If I had to guess here, I’d say that she’s going to go under. She’s flashy and has a lot of interesting sets while flying around the arena in her concerts, but I think she’ll be more understated here. Not to mention, I have no interest in laying -170 on the length of the anthem being over 120 seconds.
As far as I’m concerned, the under is the preferred play here. I’m doing a lot of assuming, but so are the people playing the over, since we really don’t know what she sounds like doing the Star-Spangled Banner. She’s probably sung it at some point, but not at a big sporting event. Nerves may speed it up a bit.
Along with that, I would expect no cleavage and she probably won’t mess up. Nobody has since Christina Aguilera in 2011. Because she’s used to the production value of her concerts, in which she’s flying through the air and doing all sorts of other things, it’s entirely possible that she’ll feel more comfortable holding the mic. That would be a mild upset at +115 at BetOnline.
Justin Timberlake is going to put on a show. I don’t love his music, but he is a legitimate showman, a great singer, a solid actor, a good dancer, and an overall talent. As far as his props go, who the hell knows? The betting odds at some sportsbooks seem to suggest that he’ll start with the single “Filthy” off of his new album. If I had to throw money on this, I’d be looking at something like Can’t Stop The Feeling around +250 at 5Dimes.
Starting with a song off of the new album is hard to do on a stage like this. Your presence alone is going to sell the album. Plus, how cool of a mid-show surprise is it going to be to bring out that robot from the music video? I think that song is a little bit down the set list.
I can’t seem to find a prop for this anywhere, but the crossover appeal of Timberlake’s CMA performance with Chris Stapleton and the new single between the two may allow for a Stapleton appearance during the halftime show. You can bet on Britney or Jay-Z showing up, but I think Chris Stapleton is the most likely, even likelier than a member of N’SYNC. Let’s all bug customer service at a book and get this prop posted.
Cris Collinsworth is going to pimp Pro Football Focus, so that’s a given at Yes -200. Al Michaels should casually mention the odds, pointspread, or the “underdog”, so make sure you check out what the small print says at your book of choice. I’d be a little bit surprised if direct references are made, but as the push for legalization continues, it certainly feels like Roger Goodell’s head is starting to peek out of the sand.
For some reason, I can also hear Al saying “City of Brotherly Love” in my head, which would be a Yes at +150 at DSI, which is a solid return on that one.
The temperature will be a popular prop bet. I’d have to say it goes over the posted total of 1, but that is -210 at 5Dimes and a bit chalky. With bad weather and snow in the forecast for the fans and commuters, it’s a bet worth considering. Especially because it’s so easy for any number of on-air personalities to say “Well, it’s two degrees outside, but it’s hot in here at US Bank Stadium”. Or whatever. “The temperature outside is three degrees, but it is a climate-controlled 68 degrees in here.” You get the idea. At the very least, this should push.
Man, there are a ton of these, ranging from comparisons to the Golden Knights game to the Beanpot College Hockey Tournament between Boston, Boston College, Harvard, and Northeastern to the NBA card to soccer games. There are probably a lot of edges to be had with these as we dig in throughout the week.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Points -0.5 (-110) vs. New England Patriots Points (BetOnline)
Without Jason Kidd, Giannis has been a man possessed. Giannis has 41, 27, and 31 in the three games played so far and he’ll get another crack at the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday. He had 41 in the first meeting and Brooklyn is not one of the better defensive teams in the NBA. Giannis has scored 28.5 points per game on the season through the time of writing. The Patriots team total is lined at 27. Who knows if they’ll actually get there against this Eagles defense. Giannis should have a solid game.
Danny Amendola Receiving Yards -0.5 (-110) vs. First Quarter Points Blazers/Celtics (BetOnline)
I’m already in on the Danny Amendola over receptions prop. He has 19 receptions through two playoff games for over 190 yards. Amendola should be the preferred WR target for Tom Brady. Portland and Boston are playing a 12 p.m. ET tip-off as the Celtics and their fans look ahead to the Super Bowl and the Trail Blazers play an early game on the East Coast. This line looks pretty reasonable and I think this is a good betting opportunity.
Jake Elliott Field Goals Made (-105) vs. Knights/Capitals First Period Goals (5Dimes)
The Golden Knights play four games in 5.5 days this week. They’ll go from Calgary to Winnipeg to Minnesota to Washington, playing the last three games in three different time zones and with a 12:30 p.m. ET puck drop in D.C. on Sunday. It would be a surprise to see them ready to go right from the drop of the puck. I would expect a slow start there. With New England’s red zone defense, Elliott should get some opportunities to kick. I’ll be looking at the FG side of this one.
Rickie Fowler Fourth Round Score (+10.5) vs. Super Bowl TD Yardage -10.5 (5Dimes)
Seven of Rickie Fowler’s last eight rounds at TPC Scottsdale have come in under 70, which is not good for us when it comes to this prop bet. He’s gone low on Sundays at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. BetOnline has the total yardage of touchdowns at 80.5 with -110 on each side.
Here’s the thing: Last year, an 82-yard Pick Six changed the dynamic. As far as offensive touchdowns, there were seven that managed just 44 total yards. At Super Bowl 50, we had a Strip Six in the end zone, a one-yard TD, and a two-yard TD. In Super Bowl XLIX, we had seven touchdowns combining for 57 yards.
Maybe rather than play the cross-sport prop, the right play to make is to straight up bet under 80.5 yards at BetOnline, but you can consider this as well.
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