Sunday Night Football Odds — Chiefs-Colts: How Many Defenders Can You Afford to Lose?

Date | AuthorCharles Jay

Last Updated: 2019-10-06

The reputation of the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense is well-known, and we can imagine that it is incorporated every time an oddsmaker compiles a number. Of course, they are also taking their defense into consideration, and that is most certainly something we’re going to talk about.

The Chiefs are 4-0 thus far, but they haven’t necessarily been perfect. On Sunday night they’ll hook up with the Indianapolis Colts in a game that begins at 8:20 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium.

While BetAnySports customers are watching the game on NBC, they can place wagers on it in real-time as they access the state-of-the-art software available through Live Betting Ultra.

We imagine that NBC thought this was going to be a bigger marquee matchup. Of course, that was before Andrew Luck announced his retirement right before the start of the season. What they have is a rematch of last year’s playoff game which the Chiefs won 31-13. Now the Colts have Jacoby Brissett piloting the offense in place of Luck, and he’s not doing so badly.

The question – is he doing well enough to trade points with the NFL’s reigning MVP, at least to some extent?

Patrick Mahomes has picked up right where he left off. He’s averaging 9.7 yards an attempt, which is a little scary, and he has ten TD passes without being intercepted. Yikes! Even the fact that the Chiefs don’t have Tyreek Hill doesn’t slow them down all that much. But we will concede that the defense has the potential to fail them in a big way.

In the Sunday night football odds that have been posted on this NBC game, the Chiefs are considerable home favorites:

Kansas City Chiefs -11 (-103)
Indianapolis Colts +11 (-107)

Over 56 points (-103)
Under 56 points (-107)

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Kansas City has surrendered 5.9 yards per rushing attempt, and if they don’t see some vast improvement in that area, it is going to prevent them from reaching a Super Bowl. The Colts have really been getting some good stuff out of Marlon Mack, who’s averaged 4.7 yards an attempt. So they can exploit KC to some degree. That’s what Detroit and Baltimore have done the last couple of weeks to earn pointspread covers, even in defeat.

The difference is that those teams weren’t as banged-up defensively as these Colts are. They will be missing safeties Clayton Geathers and Malik Hooker, not to mention the outstanding linebacker Darius Leonard. It appears as if rookie corner Rock Ya-Sin, who they’ve been very impressed with, might be a 50-50 proposition to go as well. That’s too many people to be missing when you’re dealing with someone who is on pace to throw for over 6000 yards.

Look – Brissett is well protected and has a 10-2 TD-INT ratio. His team has done more than a credible job of converting red zone trips into touchdowns thus far (4th best in the NFL, in fact). And all of this may support the case for an “over.” But KC chalks up more yards per drive than anybody (47); they are almost never held to a three-and-out (less than 5% of drives) and this results in field position “wins.” While they are generous against the run, the Colts are almost as permissive (allow 5.5 ypc). And LeSean McCoy has provided good service to his long-time associate, Andy Reid (5.3 ypc). So it’s going to be tough for Indianapolis to keep up. If you were interested in parlays, we’d suggest the Chiefs and the over, although we won’t claim an overwhelming amount of value with either.

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