Against the Spread New Orleans Pelicans vs. Sacramento Kings NBA Prediction

pelicans kings nba picks

pelicans kings nba picksIn a matchup highlighted by two of the NBA’s top scorers, Anthony Davis (24.6 PPG) and the Pelicans (37-34) welcome DeMarcus Cousins (23.8 PPG) and the Sacramento Kings (26-45) to the Smoothie King Center. Action begins at 8:00 pm ET on Friday, Mar. 27 and can be seen on CSN-CA and FSN-NO.

The Pelicans are are expecting a better outcome after their 95-93 loss to the Rockets on Wednesday. Despite the loss, Davis earned his 38th double-double this season with 24 points and 14 rebounds. The Kings, meanwhile, are coming off a 108-99 win against the Suns on Wednesday. Cousins claimed his 43rd double-double of the season with 24 points and 11 rebounds.

Expect this one to be a clinic on boxing out, as two of the NBA’s top rebounding teams face off. New Orleans is among the league’s best on the offensive glass, ranking fourth in offensive rebound percentage at 27.4%. Meanwhile, Sacramento ranks fifth in the NBA at corralling defensive boards with a defensive rebound percentage of 76.1%.

Both teams have won a game in the season series. The Kings had the upper hand in the most recent game, a 99-89 win. Cousins put up 22 points and 12 rebounds.

The odds for New Orleans and Sacramento are even, while the Over/Under (O/U) is unavailable as of now. The Pelicans have gone 37-34 Straight Up (SU) and 40-31 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 21-20 SU and 24-17 ATS against the Western Conference. The Pelicans prevent teams from making three-pointers, ranking third in the league with 471 total three-pointers allowed (6.6 per game). Opponents have consistently had their shots rejected by the Pelicans, ranking third in the league in blocks per game with 6.1.

Over on the other bench, the Kings have 26-45 SU and 28-41-2 ATS records. Against the Western Conference, Sacramento is 15-26 SU and 19-21-1 ATS. The Kings convert their free throws at a high percentage, ranking fourth in the league at .780.

In their previous meeting this season, Sacramento beat New Orleans, bringing the head-to-head record to an even 5-5 SU over the last 10 meetings. They are also even ATS in their last 10 games. In these last 10 matchups, New Orleans held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers twice, with Sacramento controlling all three of these areas once.

Predictions: SU Winner – NO, ATS Winner – NO

Notes

Sacramento is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.

Sacramento is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games.

The total has gone OVER in 9 of Sacramento’s last 12 games.

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Sacramento’s last 7 games on the road.

Sacramento is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road.

Sacramento is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road.

The total has gone OVER in 10 of Sacramento’s last 12 games when playing New Orleans.

Sacramento is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans.

The total has gone OVER in 7 of Sacramento’s last 8 games when playing on the road against New Orleans.

Sacramento is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against New Orleans.

The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans’s last 8 games when playing at home against Sacramento.

New Orleans scores an average of 99.2 points per game (ranked 16th). Sacramento ranks 29th in points allowed per game with 105.0.

Sacramento ranks 10th in points allowed per road game (107.8 PPG), while New Orleans ranks 15th in points per home game with 101.5.

When allowing fewer than 100 points, the Pelicans are 25-13 on the season. When the Kings score fewer than 100, they are a subpar 5-24.

When New Orleans gives up at least 100 points, the team has a losing 12-21 record this season. The Kings are at 0.500 when they hit the century mark (21-21).

The Kings have a defensive rating of 105.6 (ranked 26th). The Pelicans rank ninth for their offensive rating of 104.8.

The Sacramento Kings average 99.4 possessions per game and 1.019 points per possession. The New Orleans Pelicans earn fewer possessions with 94.6, but they score more points with 1.048.

The New Orleans Pelicans average an effective field goal percentage of 49.8% this season. The Sacramento Kings have an underachieving record of 4-36 when opponents have an EFF% of 49.8% or greater.

New Orleans makes an average of 21.9 assists per game (ranked 11th), while Sacramento makes 20.0 assists per game (ranked 29th).

The New Orleans Pelicans average 6.1 blocks per game, the third-ranked team in the league. The Sacramento Kings rank a lowly 28th in blocking with just 3.9 per game.

New Orleans is ranked 10th when it comes to offensive rebounding. Sacramento ranks ninth in defensive rebounds.

Sacramento makes around 6.6 steals per game. When New Orleans allows 6 or more steals, the team has an even 24-24 record.

The following two tabs change content below.

Aaron Ryan

Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.

You must be logged in to post a comment Login