Looking to win big? The Jaguars and Red Wolves face off at 3:30 ET on ESPN+. The Red Wolves are hosting the game at First National Bank Arena in Jonesboro, AR. The odds for this Sun Belt conference game currently have Arkansas State as the -9 point favorite with the over/under line sitting at 154 points.


The Pick: South Alabama Jaguars +9

This game will be played at First National Bank Arena at 3:30 ET on Saturday, February 24th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-70 in favor of the Red Wolves.
  • Even though we have Arkansas State winning straight-up, we like South Alabama at +9.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 154 points, and we like the under with a projected 146 points.

Will the South Alabama Defense Show Up on the Road?

South Alabama comes into this game with a record of 14-14, going 6-9 in Sun Belt play. On the road, the Jaguars have gone 5-8, and they are 5-9 as underdogs this season.

In their last game, South Alabama defeated Southern Miss by a score of 83-64. Over their last 10 road games, the Jaguars have gone 4-6.

South Alabama has an ATS record of 14-11 this season and they are 7-6 vs. the spread on the road. As the underdog, the Jaguars have gone 7-7 vs. the spread this year and over their last 10 games as the underdog, they are 5-5 ATS.

This season, the over/under record for South Alabama games is 12-13 and today’s line of 154 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (144.8). So far, 17 of their games have finished with less points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 141 points and their OU record during this stretch is 1-2.

South Alabama’s offense is coming off a strong performance, scoring 83 points against Southern Miss. They had an overall field goal percentage of 52.1% and made 25/36 free throws. Isiah Gaiter is leading the team in scoring at 13.8 points per contest. Tyrell Jones has also been a key contributor with a PPG average of 12.4 going into the game.

Coming into the game, South Alabama will be looking to improve their defense, as they are currently giving up 75.8 points per game (268th). On average, opposing teams are hitting 6.4 threes per game vs. Arkansas State. This has come on three-point shooting percentage of 30.9%.

Can Arkansas State Live Up to the Hype at Home?

Arkansas State enters this game as the favorite, as the Red Wolves have been favored in 17 of their 28 games this season. They have a record of 12-5 when favored, compared to 3-9 when they are the underdog.

At home, Arkansas State has been dominant, going 9-3 this season. They have won their last two games at home and have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games at home.

Arkansas State has been a solid team against the spread this season, going 18-10-1. They have been even better vs. the spread at home, going 9-3 this season. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Red Wolves have gone 6-4 vs. the spread.

This year, Arkansas State’s over/under record sits at 13-15-1. So far, their games have averaged 157.4 points compared to an average over/under line of 153.6, resulting in an average margin of 3.9 points. This season, 14 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line of 154. In their last three games, the over/under record is 0-3 with an average scoring total of 150 points.

In their latest game, Arkansas State’s offense looked good, scoring 79 points against Troy. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 50% and made 20/25 free throws. Taryn Todd is the current leading scorer for the team, with an average of 12.8 as they approach today’s matchup. In addition, Dyondre Dominguez brings a PPG average of 11.9 into the game.

Currently, the Red Wolves’ defense holds the 303rd rank in the nation, allowing 78.1 points per game. Against Troy in their most recent game, the Arkansas State defense gave up a total of 71 points while allowing Troy to hit 50% of their shots.