SMU at No. 25 TCU NCAA Football Betting Pick 9/21/19


The SMU Mustangs (+9) aren’t traveling far to battle the No. 25 TCU Horned Frogs at Amon G. Carter Stadium. This pivotal daytime game is scheduled to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET and FS1 will broadcast the action.

SMU at No. 25 TCU Betting Odds 9/21/2019

TCU is favored by 9 points in this matchup. The Mustangs are currently receiving +280 moneyline odds while the Horned Frogs are -360. This matchup could offer multiple live betting opportunities. The over/under is set at 55.5 points.

Since the game’s total was placed initially at 58.5, the early action has apparently shifted toward the under.

The Mustangs are 3-0 straight up (SU) while the Horned Frogs are 2-0 SU. The Mustangs are 3-0 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 3.0 units so far. The team has posted an Over-Under record of 3-0.

The Horned Frogs are up 1.0 unit this season. They’re 1-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 0-2.

The Mustangs are looking to remain unbeaten after a 47-17 victory over Texas State last week in which Shane Buechele completed 14 passes on 18 attempts for 219 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Xavier Jones (108 yards on 20 rushes, one TD) and Ke’Mon Freeman (67 yards on 14 carries) led the running attack in the win while Myron Gailliard (five receptions, 61 yards) and Reggie Roberson Jr. (four catches, 68 yards) handled the receiving duties.

TCU just earned a 34-13 win over Purdue. The defense did its part in the victory, holding the Boilermakers to just 181 passing yards and 23 yards on the ground. Brycen Hopkins had a good showing in the loss for Purdue, recording 77 yards on four catches. As a group, the Horned Frogs collectively completed eight-of-24 passes for 75 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Max Duggan went seven-for-18 for 70 yards and one touchdown while Alex Delton was one-of-six for five yards and one interception. Sewo Olonilua (106 rushing yards on 18 attempts, one TD) and Darius Anderson (179 yards on 16 carries, two TDs) spearheaded the ground game in the win while Jalen Reagor (three receptions, 29 yards) and Anderson (two catches, 13 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

When analyzing offensive play selection, each of these teams sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. SMU has run the ball on 58.6 percent of its offensive possessions while TCU has a rush percentage of 57.7. The Mustangs have rushed for 250 yards/game and have 12 scores via handoffs this year. The Horned Frogs are logging 273 rushing yards per contest and have five total rush TDs.

It seems like the Horned Frogs could have an edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has logged 5.8 yards per carry while the defense has allowed a YPC of 2.1 to opponents. The Mustangs have registered 5.3 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 3.3 to opponents.

The Mustangs have logged 300 yards per game in the air overall and have five passing scores so far. The Horned Frogs have recorded 180 pass yards per outing and have two total pass TDs.

Defensively, SMU has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 106 yards and throw for 245 yards per game. TCU has been a bit better than that, giving up 62.0 yards per game on the ground and 147.5 to opposing teams in the air. The Horned Frogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 1.79 to opposing QBs, while the Mustangs have given up a 4.71 ANY/A.

Buechele has amassed 579 passing yards this season. He’s completed 44-of-67 attempts with two passing touchdowns and three interceptions. Buechele’s got a 7.01 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 10.02 over the last two outings.

The Mustangs have tried to maintain the pace by feeding their running backs early and often. Along with Reggie Roberson Jr. (248 yards), Xavier Jones (164 rush yards, four rush TDs) and TJ McDaniel (159 rush yards, three rush TDs) have been focal points in the SMU gameplan.

In the other locker room, Max Duggan has accounted for 70 yards, one TD and zero INTs. Duggan’s ANY/A stands at a minuscule 3.90 for the year and 6.12 over his past two games.

The Horned Frogs will also try to control the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. Jalen Reagor (29 receiving yards) has stepped up lately, but Darius Anderson (179 rush yards, two rush TDs, 13 receiving yards) and Sewo Olonilua (106 rush yards, one rush TD) have seen a lot of action lately.

When these two squads met last year, TCU knocked SMU off easily 42-12.

SMU Mustangs at TCU Horned Frogs Betting Pick

SU Winner – TCU, ATS Winner – TCU, O/U – Under


Team Betting Trends

The O/U for SMU’s previous game was set at 62.5. The over cashed in the team’s 47-17 win over Texas State.

Both teams have lost two fumbles this year.

In its last three contests, SMU is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.

The O/U for TCU’s previous outing going into it was 53. The under cashed in that 34-13 victory over Purdue.

The Mustangs offense has recorded five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Horned Frogs have put up zero such plays.

The SMU defense has yet to allow a passing play of 40 yards or more, while TCU has given up one such play.

The SMU offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while TCU has created five such runs.

The Mustangs defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Horned Frogs have given up zero such runs.

The SMU defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 12 times this season. TCU has recorded just five sacks.

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