Serie A Match of the Day Round 36 – Roma vs. Juventus (5/12/19)

Date | AuthorAdmir Aljic

Last Updated: 2019-05-11

Juventus will be without a motive to get a win, unlike Roma who must secure a victory or else this campaign can be deemed a failure for the Yellow and Reds. The game between Roma and Juventus will take place at Stadio Olimpico on May 12th, 2019.

ROMA vs. JUVENTUS

Three-Way: 1: Roma +150; X: +250 Draw; 2: Juventus +175 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread 0: Roma -110; Juventus +100

Total 2.5 goals: Over -125; Under +100

ROMA

Roma has no choice but to go all out for victory to avoid falling short of the top four. So far this term, their home league record against teams which enter Serie A game week 36 in that region of the table stands at D2, L1. All have produced over 3.5 match goals and seen Roma concede at least twice.

Notably, though, the two draws in that sequence saw Claudio Ranieri’s men score last, and do so inside the final half-hour. Of the goals scored by Roma in that select group of home fixtures, the last two have arrived via the penalty spot.

Claudio Ranieri will be without Diego Perotti (muscle) and Davide Santon (thigh) while Daniele De Rossi is listed as doubtful to face Juventus due to a thigh injury.

Betting Trends:

  • An opening scorer for Roma in two of his last three SA outings, Stephan El Shaarawy scored to give his side the lead in their last home league win over Juventus
  • Only one of Roma’s last 11 SA games at the Stadio Olimpico has seen them win both halves

JUVENTUS

Runaway champions Juventus travel to the capital on a run of just one win in four SA games (W1, D2, L1). They have also lost two of their last four SA away fixtures, with all of the goals conceded by them in those defeats arriving in the second half, after a won or drawn first half.

However, if the Bianconeri are to win, it will likely be tight. Four of their last six SA away victories have come via a one-goal margin, with three of that quartet seeing Juventus win the second half.

Massimiliano Allegri cannot count on suspended Federico Bernardeschi and injured Sami Khedira (knee) while Alex Sandro (thigh), Emre Can (muscle), Douglas Costa (calf), Paulo Dybala (muscle), Mario Mandzukic (knee), and Mattia Perin (shoulder) are all listed as questionable to feature on Sunday.

Betting Trends:

  • Cristiano Ronaldo travels here after scoring in back-to-back SA games for the first time since February while his last five SA goals for Juventus have arrived beyond the hour mark
  • Four of Juventus’ last five SA road trips featured an opening goal (either way) arrive in the first half-hour
  • Six of Juventus’ last eight visits to Roma have produced a goalless first half

Juventus won six of the previous ten H2H encounters (D2, L2) including two of the last three while the Yellow and Reds were victorious in two of the past three meetings at Stadio Olimpico. The Old Lady is without a win here since 2014 and Juve is not playing well on the road lately, so this could be Roma’s last chance to stay alive in the Champions League race. The hosts will be way more motivated to get three points and the fact that Juve already won the title is the only reason why I am backing the hosts.

MY PICK: Roma (+150)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Even five of the previous six H2H duels produced under 2.5 goals and only two of Juventus’ last eight road games produced three goals or more. The reverse fixture this season ended 1-0 for Juventus and I wouldn’t be surprised if Roma returns them a favor here and I am going with under in this one.

MY PICK: Under 2.5 (+100)

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