Serie A Match of the Day Round 35 – Lazio vs. Atalanta (5/5/19)

Date | AuthorAdmir Aljic

Last Updated: 2019-05-04

The Eagles are desperate to get a win here or they can say goodbye to the Champions League football, while the Goddess can be happy with a point. The game between Lazio and Atalanta will take place at Stadio Olimpico on May 5th, 2019.

LAZIO vs. ATALANTA

Three-Way: 1: Lazio +120; X: +260 Draw; 2: Atalanta +210 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread 0: Lazio -143; Atalanta +131

Total 2.5 goals: Over -141; Under +127

LAZIO

In this “rehearsal” for the Coppa Italia final, Lazio will be eager to maintain their usual dominance in Serie A home matches, having won after leading at half-time in nearly half (eight) of their 17 SA outings as hosts, which is a league high.

Getting the first goal is usually important for Simone Inzaghi’s men, as tellingly they’ve lost just two home games after scoring the opener (W9, D1, L2), with the ‘Eagles’ also opening the scoring in each of their home league win this season.

Simone Inzaghi will be without Jordan Lukaku (knee) and Senad Lulic (suspension), while Valon Berisha (calf), Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (knee), and Romulo (shoulder) are listed as doubtful to feature on Sunday.

Betting Trends:

  • Felipe Caicedo has netted four goals in his last three SA outings (W2, L1) and both wins saw him open the scoring inside the first half-hour
  • Lazio conceded 68.42% of their SA home goals in the second half
  • Lazio is unbeaten in the last four SA H2Hs here (W3, D1), with all of the last six SA H2Hs in Rome seeing a level half-time score

ATALANTA

Atalanta arrives in the capital after already recorded their best away goal-scoring tally in a single SA campaign. In turn, no other SA side has participated in more games producing over 3.5 total match goals than Atalanta this term, with 16 of their 34 SA games seeing that outcome.

Impressively, Atalanta’s last two SA away wins have seen them recover after conceding first in the opening half-hour. As a potential psychological bonus, both of those wins from behind also saw Atalanta score the final match goal between the 76th-90th minute (plus stoppage time).

Gian Piero Gasperini doesn’t have any new injury-related concerns but several players could miss the clash with Lazio as Josip Ilicic (knee) and Rafael Toloi (ankle) are listed as questionable.

Betting Trends:

  • Only one SA player has scored more goals than Duván Zapata (21 goals, seven assists) and two-thirds of his goals for Atalanta have arrived away from home
  • Atalanta scored 64.86% of their SA away goals after the half-time whistle

Lazio won four of the previous ten H2H encounters (D3, L3) but Atalanta won the reverse fixture this season and the Eagles are without a win in the last three duels, while Lazio was victorious in three of the past four meetings at Stadio Olimpico. The Goddess suffered just one road defeat in the last ten games but Atalanta is not very successful when it comes to road games against Lazio and that’s why I am going with a draw here. A point would be just enough for the visitors and the rivals drew two of the last three H2H meetings.

MY PICK: Draw (+260)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Even six of the last eight H2H duels produced goals on both sides and even though it wasn’t the frequent case when it comes to games at Stadio Olimpico, I am going with over 2.5 goals and goals on both ends.

MY PICK: BTTS and Over 2.5 (-110)

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