Heading into game three of this National League matchup, the Phillies (69-57, 36-24 home) will send Michael Lorenzen to the mound against the Giants (65-61, 30-33 away) and Alex Cobb. Check out my pick for today’s San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies game in Philadelphia.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING PICK

The Pick: San Francisco Giants +1.5 Runs

This game will be played at Citizens Bank Park at 4:05 ET on Wednesday, August 23rd.

WHY BET THE SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS:

  • Against the runline, the Phillies have gone just 2-3 in their last five home games.
  • Over their last three games as the favorite, the Phillies are just 1-2 against the runline.
  • Michael Lorenzen has struggled of late, coming in with an ERA of 6.15 over his last five starts.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS TRYING TO CLOSE GAP IN NL WEST

Entering game 127 of their season, the Giants are 12 games out in the NL West and are in 3rd place. So far, their overall series record stands at 18-21-2. San Francisco’s road winning percent is currently 47.6% (30-33) compared to 55.6% at home (35-28).

Alex Cobb has been a reliable starter for the Giants this season, boasting a 6-5 record in 23 appearances. His ERA stands at 3.75, while his K/9 is 7.99 and FIP is 3.84. Opponents have had difficulty getting on base against him, as evidenced by his .322 OBP.

Alex Cobb suffered a defeat in his last start against the Braves, surrendering four runs on eight hits as the Giants were shut out 4-0.

Over their last five games, the Giants are ranked 18th in the league in scoring at 3.2 runs per game. Their season-long scoring average of 4.3 per contest puts them 21st in baseball. In terms of on-base percentage, San Francisco is 18th, with an OBP currently sitting at .314. The team’s collective batting average is .238 (16th).

Michael Conforto has been one of the Giants’ most reliable offensive contributors in 2023. He is currently batting .248 with 55 runs batted in and 15 home runs.

WILL THE PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS AT HOME?

Philadelphia head into today’s game seeking their 3rd straight win and are in 2nd place in the NL East. On the road, Philadelphia is 33-33 and 36-24 at home. With an overall record of 69-57, the Phillies have a series win percentage of 57% (21-16-3).

Michael Lorenzen has made 21 appearances this season, with a .357 slugging percentage allowed and a WHIP of 1.08. His overall record is 7-8 with an ERA of 3.57, and he has 94 strikeouts, averaging 6.71 per nine innings. On the road, his record is 3-4 with an ERA of 4.70; at home it’s 4-4 and 3.85 respectively.

Michael Lorenzen’s latest start against the Nationals ended in a loss for the Phillies, as he gave up seven runs on eight hits over 3 1/3 innings. The final score was 8-7 in favor of Washington.

The Phillies have been one of the top power lineups in the league of late, having hit 11 home runs over their last five games. Compared to other clubs, this is 1st best in that span. For the season, they are ranked 11th in home runs and 8th in slugging percentage. Overall, Philadelphia is averaging 4.7 runs per game (13th).

Kyle Schwarber is the home-run king for the Phillies in 2023, leading the team with 33 long balls and 80 runs batted in. His slugging percentage for the year is a respectable .435.