Week 12 of the 2021 CFB season goes on Friday, November 19, with the Mountain West Conference showdown at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, so we bring you the best San Diego State vs. UNLV betting pick and odds.
The Aztecs search for their third straight victory over the Rebels, opening as firm 10.5-point favorites on Bovada Sportsbook. The Rebels are listed as +345 moneyline underdogs, while the totals sit at 41.0 points.
The Aztecs barely outlasted Nevada in Week 11
The San Diego Aztecs (9-1; 5-4-1 ATS) are coming off a 23-21 home victory to the Nevada Wolf Pack this past Saturday. Matt Araiza made the 35-yard field goal with 1:21 left on the clock in the fourth quarter to lift his team over the Wolf Pack, while the Aztecs’ stout defense sealed the victory.
San Diego State had to deal with Nevada’s prolific passing offense. The Aztecs controlled the clock and fully deserved their victory, racking up 362 total yards and surrendering 358 in a return. Lucas Johnson tossed for 176 yards and a TD, while Greg Bell had 16 carries for 104 yards.
The Aztecs lean on their defensive unit, allowing only 17.1 points per game (tied-9th in the country) on 83.1 rushing yards (4th) and 222.8 passing yards (51st). They score 27.7 points per contest (69th) on 191.5 rushing yards (39th) and 140.8 passing yards (124th).
The Rebels aim for their third win in a row
After dropping their first eight games of the season, the UNLV Rebels (2-8; 6-3-1 ATS) have recorded two consecutive wins. Back in Week 10, UNLV smashed New Mexico on the road, 31-17, while Week 11 saw the Rebels defeating the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors as 3.5-point home underdogs, 27-13.
Senior RB Charles Williams led the way for UNLV last weekend, tallying a whopping 38 totes for 266 yards and three touchdowns. He’s already registered 1,089 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in 2021. The Rebels held Hawaii to just 240 all-purpose yards and 10 first downs.
UNLV ranks 105th in the country in points allowed per game (31.8). The Rebels surrender 145.5 rushing yards (61st) and 266.1 passing yards per contest (112th). On the other side of the ball, they are scoring 21.5 points per game (tied-113th) on 120.8 rushing yards (106th) and 193.1 passing yards (104th).
San Diego State:
- 13-6 ATS in the last 19 games against UNLV
- 2-10 ATS in the last 12 home games as double-digit underdogs
San Diego State vs. UNLV Pick
The Aztecs are double-digit favorites for a reason despite their offensive woes and the Rebels’ solid form. San Diego State’s defense should torture the Rebels, who lack quality passing options. The Aztecs are vulnerable through the air, and UNLV doesn’t possess enough firepower to take advantage of San Diego State’s flaws.
On the other side, the Rebels have improved defensively over the last two weeks. They need another solid display to stay competitive in this matchup, but the Rebels’ offense will be in big trouble.
Pick: Take San Diego State -10.5 at -110
The under is 5-1 in the Aztecs’ last six games overall, and it is 10-1 in their previous 11 outings as double-digit favorites. As I’ve already mentioned, the Aztecs heavily lean on their defense, so I’m expecting another low-scoring affair when they take on UNLV.
Four of the Aztecs’ last six games have produced fewer than 41 points in total. Also, the total has gone under in the previous five encounters between San Diego State and UNLV.
Pick: Go under 41.0 points at -110