The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers continue their four-game series at Dodger Stadium on Friday, July 1, 2022. It’s Game 5 of their 19-game regular-season set, and the Dodgers won two of their three road contests against the Padres in April.
Thursday night’s opener of this set has been excluded from the analysis, and the Dodgers were listed as -135 home favorites on MyBookie Sportsbook. They open as firm -180 moneyline favorites for Friday’s clash, while San Diego sat at +150 with a total of 7.5 runs, so here’s the best Padres vs. Dodgers betting pick.
The Padres hope to get Manny Machado back
The San Diego Padres put an end to their three-game losing streak last Wednesday. They blanked the Arizona Diamondbacks 4-0 to avoid a sweep in a two-game road set, improving to 46-31 on the season. San Diego entered Thursday’s battle at Dodger Stadium as the second-best team in the NL West, trailing the Dodgers by a game and a half.
Manny Machado has missed the previous nine games due to an ankle injury. In his absence, the Padres have gone 5-4, and Machado could be ready to play Friday in LA. Manny is slashing .328/.400/.545 with 12 home runs and 46 RBIs across 253 at-bats this season.
Blake Snell will take the mound Friday and shoot for his first win in 2022. The 29-year-old southpaw has five losses in seven starts this season. He’s recorded a pedestrian 5.60 ERA and 1.44 WHIP while striking out 38 across 35.1 innings. Snell was 0-3 with a 6.20 ERA and 3.57 FIP in four starts in June.
The Dodgers aim for another win behind Tony Gonsolin
The Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Colorado Rockies 8-4 this past Wednesday to avoid a sweep in a three-game series at Coors Field. They failed to win the third straight series after outlasting Cincinnati and Atlanta on the road but improved their AL-best record to 46-28.
Tony Gonsolin will get the nod Friday and search for his tenth win in 2022. The 28-year-old righty is 9-0 with a ridiculous 1.58 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 14 starts (74 innings) this season. The Dodgers have emerged victorious in 11 of his 14 appearances, including the previous six.
Gonsolin tossed 5.2 innings of a one-run ball in a no-decision against the Braves last Sunday. He allowed five hits and a couple of walks while punching out five. Tony went 4-0 with a 1.24 ERA and 3.68 FIP in five starts in June.
- 1-4 in the last five games on the road
- 1-11 in the last 12 games against the Dodgers
- 0-7 in Blake Snell’s last seven starts
- 6-3 in the last nine games overall
- 11-3 in the last 14 home games against San Diego
- 6-0 in Tony Gonsolin’s last six starts
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Pick
If Tony Gonsolin continues to impress, the Dodgers will come out on top. Gonsolin will eventually have a meltdown, but until that happens, go with the Dodgers whenever he’s on the mound. Tony’s splitter and slider have a minus-21 run value combined, and Gonsolin ranks in the 94th percentile in hard-hit percentage.
The current Padres have only eight hits and a .694 OPS in 34 at-bats against Gonsolin. On the other side, the current Dodgers lineup has 14 hits and a .632 OPS versus Blake Snell, who’s allowed 16 runs (14 earned) over his last four starts.
Pick: Take Los Angeles Dodgers at -180
Both teams have a lot of top-notch arms in their bullpens, so the line has been set pretty low at 7.5 runs. The Dodgers ‘pen has a sharp 2.45 ERA and 2.95 FIP in the last ten days and 33 innings of work, while the Padres bullpen has recorded a 2.90 ERA and 3.45 FIP across 31 frames in that span.
The Dodgers’ lineup is more dangerous when hitting the righties (95 OPS+ against the left-handed starters in 2022), so Blake Snell might have a chance to go deep into this game. Hereof, I’ll take the under.
Pick: Go under 7.5 runs at -110