San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds Free Pick 08/21/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-08-21

The San Diego Padres will take the field against the Cincinnati Reds. The first pitch is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Ohio will broadcast this NL showdown.

San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds

Vegas is listing Cincinnati (-140) as the favorite over San Diego (+130). If you think this game’s total will finish under 8.5 runs scored, then Vegas is teeing up -105 odds. Picking the over will give you -115 odds. The game’s most recent runline odds stand at -170 for betting the Padres +1.5 runs and +150 for the Reds -1.5.

The Padres are 59-66 SU and are 58-66 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 10.1 units for moneyline bettors and 13.8 units ATS. The Reds, on the other hand, are 59-66 SU and 69-55 ATS. The team’s lost 5.8 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 5.3 units ATS.

Reds games have a 48-70-6 over/under record in 2019. The Padres have an over/under record of 60-57-7.

The left-handed Matt Strahm is projected to start for the visiting Padres. Strahm is 5-8 with a 5.21 ERA and 99 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with five strikeouts and a 1.13 ERA against Cincinnati this year.

The Reds are countering with Luis Castillo (11-5, 3.10 ERA). Castillo has 175 strikeouts and 61 walks, along with a 1.14 WHIP. Castillo is 1-0 with nine strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA in one start against San Diego this year.

San Diego’s pitching staff allowed 4.8 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.45 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 8.38 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.68, along with a WHIP of 1.25 and a K/9 of 9.99.

The Padres offense has slashed .245/.313/.429 on its way to 4.5 runs scored per game this season, including 4.4 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

First baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Manny Machado have led San Diego’s offense. Hosmer is slashing .285/.332/.450 with 18 home runs, 82 RBIs and 63 runs scored, while Machado (.266/.334/.470) is up to 26 homers, 71 RBIs and 67 runs scored.

In the home-team dugout, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has yielded 4.4 runs per game overall this season. The club’s starting pitching staff has a 4.02 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.40 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 9.8 K/9.

Cincinnati’s hitters are putting up 4.5 runs per contest, including 3.8 per game over its last 10 games and 3.8 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .239/.307/.374 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that span.

Third baseman Eugenio Suarez and shortstop Jose Iglesias have led the way for the Reds’ offense this year. Suarez is slashing .254/.338/.524 with 34 home runs, 77 RBIs and 67 runs scored, while Iglesias has produced a line of .293/.322/.415 with eight homers, 47 RBIs and 51 runs.

The Padres have lost 2.3 units and are 44-53 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 50 of those games, compared to 41 that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers.

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Padres, O/U – OVER

Notes

Betting Notes

The under has cashed in four of Cincinnati’s last seven games.

San Diego has posted 20.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 18.2 over its last five.

The Padres have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Reds have hit 13 over their last 10.

The Padres have a total OPS of .742 this season and an OPS of .719 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Reds’ OPS sits at .749 overall and .735 against righties.

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2019 MLB Betting Guide

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Play Line: TORONTO 276
BTB PowerLine: TORONTO +233

Edge On: TORONTO 43Bet Now
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Play Line: BOSTON 196
BTB PowerLine: BOSTON +146

Edge On: BOSTON 50Bet Now