Planning on watching today’s Bulldogs and Buccaneers game? Catch the action at Freedom Hall Civic Center in Johnson City, TN, as the Buccaneers hosts this showdown at 4:00 ET on ESPN+. In this Southern matchup, Samford is favored by -5.5 vs. East Tennessee State. The over/under for the game is 155 points.


The Pick: East Tennessee State Buccaneers +5.5

This game will be played at Freedom Hall Civic Center at 4:00 ET on Saturday, January 27th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-69 in favor of the Buccaneers.
  • Not only will East Tennessee State pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +5.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 155 points, and we like the under with a projected 145 points.

Will Samford Shock Everyone at Freedom Hall Civic Center?

Samford comes into today’s game with a record of 17-3, including a perfect 10-0 mark at home. On the road, the Bulldogs have gone 4-3, and they are coming off a 78-68 loss to Furman.

So far this season, Samford has been the favorite in 13 of its 20 games, going a perfect 13-0 in those matchups. The Bulldogs’ average scoring margin on the road is -1.9 compared to +18.2 at home.

As the favorite, Samford has been a strong bet this season, going 10-3 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Bulldogs have an impressive 9-1 ATS record. On the road, Samford has gone 4-3 vs. the spread this season and they have gone 6-4 ATS in their last 10 road games.

Samford has an over/under record of 8-9 this season and their games have averaged 161.8 points per game. Today’s over/under line of 155 is lower than their season average over/under line of 155.4. So far, 10 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line and their last three games have averaged 152 points.

The Samford offense is coming off a game in which they scored 68 points vs. Furman. Overall their field goal percentage was 43.8% while connecting on 9 threes. The team’s top scorer is Achor Achor, who enters today’s matchup with an average of 16.9, while A.J. Staton Mccray also carries a PPG average of 13.4 into the game.

The Bulldogs’ defense is presently ranked 233rd nationally, allowing an average of 75.4 points per contest. So far, the Samford defense is giving up an average of 9.7 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 13.6 times per game (680th).

Will East Tennessee State Come Through as Home Underdogs?

East Tennessee State enters this game as a 5.5-point underdog, and they have gone 3-8 on the road this season. Their average scoring margin on the road is -6.6 points per game.

At home, the Buccaneers have gone 5-2, and they have a scoring margin of +2.4 points per game. They are coming off a one-point win over VMI and have gone 8-2 in their last 10 home games.

As the underdog this season, East Tennessee State has a 6-5 record vs. the spread. At home, they have gone 3-4 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Bucs have an ATS mark of 6-4.

This season, the over/under record for East Tennessee State games is 11-7 and today’s line of 155 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (142.2). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 149 points and the over/under record in their games over their last 10 games is 7-3.

The East Tennessee State offense is coming off a game in which they scored 74 points vs. VMI. Overall their field goal percentage was 42% while connecting on 8 threes. The top scorer for the Buccaneers was Jaden Seymour with 22 points, while Ebby Asamoah also chipped in with 16 points.

On defense, East Tennessee State is currently around the NCAA average in points allowed, giving up an average of 70.5 points per game. In their previous game vs. VMI, the Keydets finished with a field goal percentage of 43% and a total of 73 points vs. East Tennessee State.