Looking to win big? The Hornets and Lumberjacks face off at 4:00 ET on ESPN+. The Lumberjacks are hosting the game at J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome in Flagstaff, AZ. The over/under for this game is set at 135.5 points, and the Lumberjacks are the home favorites against the Hornets in a Big Sky conference matchup.


The Pick: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks -2

This game will be played at J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome at 4:00 ET on Saturday, January 20th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-68 in favor of the Lumberjacks.
  • Not only will Northern Arizona pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -2.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 135.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 144 points.

Do the Hornets Have What it Takes on the Road?

So far this season, Sacramento State has struggled on the road, going just 1-8. Their average scoring margin on the road is -12.8 points per game, and they come into this game on a five-game losing streak away from home.

Overall, the Hornets are 6-12 on the year, including a 2-3 mark in Big Sky Conference play. They are 2-9 when listed as the underdog, and they have gone just 1-9 in their last 10 games on the road.

Against the spread, Sacramento State has gone 5-9-2 this season. On the road, their ATS mark is 3-5-1 and over their last 10 road games, they are just 3-6-1. As the underdog, the Hornets are 4-6-1 vs. the spread this year and 4-5-1 over their last 10 games in that role.

Sacramento State has an over/under record of 8-8 this season and today’s line of 135.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games of 140.4. So far, 7 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 with an average of 140 points scored.

In their previous game, the Hornets’ offense finished with 75 points, which is right in line with their current average of 70.3 points per contest. The Sacramento State offense has been looking to get up shots from outside so far this season, averaging 25.4 three-point attempts per contest. Overall, they have connected on 32% of their looks from outside this season.

At present, the Hornets’ defense is nationally ranked 166th, allowing 72.0 points per game. On average, opposing teams are hitting 6.7 threes per game vs. Northern Arizona. This has come on three-point shooting percentage of 30.8%.

Do the Lumberjacks Stand a Chance at Home?

At home this season, Northern Arizona has been dominant, going 4-0 with an average scoring margin of +10.5. Over their last 10 games at home, they have gone 7-3.

Coming into today’s game, the Lumberjacks are favored by 2 points. So far this season, they are 5-0 when favored.

As the favorite this season, Northern Arizona has gone just 2-3 against the spread. In their last three games as the favorite, they are 0-3 ATS. At home, the Lumberjacks are 2-2 vs. the spread this year and 5-5 in their last 10 games as the favorite.

So far this season, the over/under record for Northern Arizona games is 7-11. In their last three games, the average scoring total is 138 points compared to their season average of 142.4 points per game. Today’s over/under line of 135.5 is lower than the average OU line in their games this season (145.4).

Northern Arizona’s offense is coming off a strong performance vs. Portland State, finishing the game with a total of 84 points. Their season average is now 65.6 points per game. The team’s top scorer is Trenton McLaughlin, who enters today’s matchup with an average of 14.7, while Oakland Fort also carries a PPG average of 9.7 into the game.

Looking at the Northern Arizona defense, they will be looking for a better performance considering they are currently conceding 76.9 points per game (262nd). The Northern Arizona defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 65 points and allowed Portland State to connect on 6 threes.