The Colorado Rockies got a phenomenal effort from German Marquez on Saturday to pick up yet another road victory. They’ll hope for the same from Jon Gray in the first half finale against the San Diego Padres. The All-Star Break begins right after the game for these two teams, as the Rockies head back home where the festivities will be.
Ryan Weathers will take the hill for the Padres in the rubber match of this three-game set. Bettors seem uncertain of what to do with the line, as we’ll explain shortly, but the Padres are favored in the -175 range at Bookmaker Sportsbook with a total of 8.5 juiced to the over.
The Rockies have won two of three on the road and will look for their 40th win of the season in today’s game. Honestly, with how poorly they’ve played on the road, being 40-51 would be relatively impressive. Colorado’s win on Saturday bumped their road record up to 8-34. They are 31-17 at home, so it has truly been a tale of two seasons depending on where the game has been played.
Colorado has been outscored by 101 runs on the season away from home and actually just crossed 100 road runs earlier this week in the series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Rockies have paired the highest road ERA with the worst road offense to form a disastrous combination and the results certainly speak for themselves.
They should have a chance today with Gray, who has a 3.94 ERA with a 4.12 FIP in his 80 innings of work. He’s kept the ball on the ground with a 51.3% GB% and has only allowed nine home runs on the season. A 67.1% LOB% has been an unfortunate part of his season, as it has kept his ERA from being better than it is.
For whatever reason, like so many of his teammates, Gray has a 3.22 ERA in 50.1 innings at home with a .259 wOBA against and a 5.16 ERA in 29.2 road innings with a .356 wOBA against. Those are the opposite of the splits that we typically see from Rockies pitchers.
San Diego Padres
The starting point for this handicap is Ryan Weathers. The Padres left-hander won’t turn 22 until December, but he already has 56.2 MLB innings to his name. Weathers has a 3.02 ERA, but a 4.56 FIP, as the Regression Monster has been hiding out in his clubhouse locker for a while. Weathers has a .247 BABIP against and an 85.8% LOB%, so those are the two areas in question.
With a 44.6% Hard Hit%, Weathers has not been able to shy away from hard contact, but the .247 BABIP suggests just how fortunate he has been ob balls in play. In two starts since getting recalled from Triple-A, Weathers has allowed six runs on 12 hits with seven strikeouts against four walks in 9.1 innings of work. He only made two starts in Triple-A after being a casualty of the numbers game on the San Diego roster.
Weathers will hope for some run support today out of an offense that ranks 12th in wOBA at .318. The Padres have a high walk rate at 10.1% and a low K% at 22%, but only have a .286 BABIP and have been pretty unlucky on the hard contact that they have made. They are 28th in batting average and wOBA on batted balls of 95+ mph. San Diego’s offense has been one of the top offenses in baseball over the last three weeks, but you wouldn’t know it from yesterday’s performance.
The Padres have some bullpen questions coming into today’s game. They’ve gotten some short starts recently that have put pressure on the bullpen to make up a lot of innings. That group is definitely looking ahead to the All-Star Break.
Rockies vs. Padres Free Pick
It is always interesting to see how teams play on the Sunday before the All-Star Break. The Rockies are not playing for anything. The Padres are and are playing for a series win. However, there are some big regression signs in the profile there for Weathers. On the other hand, the teams may play a quick one to get into the Break as soon as possible, which could lend itself to an under. The last day is such a hard one to handicap, but the Padres should be the more engaged team today.