Last Updated: 2018-03-30
The daily grind of the Major League Baseball season has started and there are few things players look forward to during the season than a day off. While off days used to be reserved for travel, most teams have their own planes or charter planes and leave for the next destination right after their game, making an off day pretty much that, a day to relax and unwind.
In the grand scheme of things getting a day off doesn’t really make that much of a difference to how a team plays its following game. Going back to the start of the 2010 season we’d see teams with a day of rest posting a 2123-2096 record, which is 50.3%.
The past two seasons have yielded a rather interesting result involving teams off a day of rest, as underdogs who lost their previous game as an underdog and then had a day to think about it are just 66-129. A flat bet against these teams would have yielded a profit of $3,400 and an ROI of slightly more than 11%.
Home underdogs posted a 22-39 record over the two years, while road underdogs were 44-90.
For away teams, if the line was +150 or greater, these teams were only 14-41 and home teams fared even worse, going just 1-11, with last year’s Chicago White sox victory over the Houston Astros the lone victory and most of the games weren’t really that close, as the average score was 3.17 to 5.92, so that is definitely something to keep an eye on this season. Long-term, these teams haven’t fared quite so bad, but are just 23-56 going back nearly 15 years, so there aren’t that many plays per season, but backers have been rewarded with a 9.8% ROI over the years and this is the primary situation we want to be on the lookout for.
Looking at away teams over the years, those with a line of +150 or greater are just 100-227 and betting against them would have yielded a profit of $3,692 and an ROI of 5.7%, which isn’t quite as strong as going against the home teams, but there’s nothing wrong with something that shows a profit over the course of so many years.
To wrap it up, we want to bet against underdog of +150 or more than is off a loss as an underdog and had a day in between games. Over the years, we’d have a 283-123 record with a profit of $5,086 and a 6.4% ROI, while short term, meaning the past two years, would have resulted in an impressive 52-15 record for a profit of $2,250 and an ROI of 17%.
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