As promised, a recap of how the system has done so, which I’ll say I was pretty pleased with, especially for the first month of a new season when we’re using last year’s statistics and then a combination of last year and this year. In our method, one run equals 50 cents on the moneyline, so a team predicted to win 4-3 would be favored -150 before home field was accounted for.
Games in which there was a 50-cent or greater difference between the odds and our line were 55-48 for a $1,252 profit, based on betting $100 on the underdogs and betting enough to win $100 on favorites. This is taking the system plays as they are spit out, not accounting for reverse line moves, pitcher’s with artificially high numbers due to limited starts or any of that. I should also point out that the 50-cent difference is in the take price on the underdog, not necessarily the difference in the odds.
If we have Team A -125 over Team B and the line is Team A -175, we won’t have a play even though there is a 50-cent difference in the two lines because our take price on the underdog is going to be +160, which leaves us with a 35-cent difference.
As you can tell from the $1,252 profit and just seven net winners, we did hit on a fair amount of underdogs, with several +200 dogs coming through for us. That leads me to one area I thought the system would do well in, but that wasn’t the case is what I call false favorites, meaning the team we predict to win is the underdog. While there were many of these teams that met our 50-cent difference rule, there were a fair number that did not.
The overall record on false favorites was a dismal 31-45. In fairness to the system some of the differences were extremely small. If we had a team -105 and the opponent was -113 our take price would be +103 for a difference of just 8 cents on the moneyline, but I recorded it as a play. False favorite teams who did not meet the 50-cent requirement were 5-16 for a loss of $894, so we definitely need to have that 50-cent difference before considering the underdog as a play.
All things considered, a pretty decent opening month and our numbers should become a little bit stronger as the season moves forward.