The Dallas Mavericks (25-29) will be at home in the American Airlines Center when they meet the Portland Trail Blazers (33-21). Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 10, 2019.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds Preview
In the Trail Blazers’ last outing, they beat the San Antonio Spurs, 127-118, covering as 6-point favorites. CJ McCollum led Portland in scoring with 30 points on 10-for-21 shooting. Portland played a nearly perfect game. They had an absurdly low turnover percentage of 7.5 (better than their season average of 12.1) and a free throw rate of 0.198 (matching their season average). For those same stats, San Antonio recorded marks of 15.6 and 0.110, respectively. The two teams combined to put up 245 points, which finished well over the projected point total of 226.
The Mavericks are hoping to rebound after not being able to cover as 6-point underdogs in their 122-107 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks in their last game. With 18 points, five rebounds and five assists, Trey Burke played well for Dallas. Milwaukee had an offensive rebounding percentage of 26.3 (above their season average of 20.6). Dallas, meanwhile, had a better free throw rate (0.149 vs. 0.106). The two clubs collectively scored 229 points, which was just over the O/U total of 226.
These two teams have met twice already this year, each winning once. Damian Lillard scored a game-high 33 points in the most recent contest, in which the Trail Blazers defeated the Mavericks 121-118 but could not cover as 7-point favorites. He also recorded seven assists. The two teams combined to score 239 points, which was 23.5 points above the projected point total of 215.5 points. Portland’s 0.524 effective field goal percentage was its largest advantage over Dallas, who had a mark of 0.476.
Of Portland’s 54 games, 28 have finished over the O/U total, while 30 of Dallas’ 54 games have finished under the projected point total. The Trail Blazers hold the substantial advantage straight up (SU) (33-21 vs. 25-29), but the Mavericks have the better against the spread (ATS) record (34-20 vs. 30-24).
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Dallas Mavericks Prediction
Pick: SU Winner – Trail Blazers, ATS Winner – Trail Blazers, O/U – Over
The Trail Blazers rank fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.8) while the Mavericks rank 13th (16.9).
Portland ranks 24th in assists per game (22.9) while Dallas ranks 25th (22.7).
Dallas ranks 12th in second chance points per game (13.5) while Portland ranks 20th in second chance points allowed per game (13.9).
Dallas is 19-8 ATS at home, while Portland is 10-13 ATS on the road.
The total has gone under in 15 of the Mavericks’ 27 home games, while 12 of the Trail Blazers’ 23 road games have gone over.
When holding opponents below 100 points, Dallas is 10-3 and Portland is 8-1.
When scoring above 100 points, the Mavericks are 24-23 and the Trail Blazers are 32-16.
The Trail Blazers rank third in rebounds per game (47.6) while the Mavericks rank 11th (46.1).
Dallas ranks fourth in three pointers attempted per game (35.2) while Portland ranks 17th (30.6).
The Trail Blazers rank 15th in steals allowed per game (7.6) while the Mavericks rank 26th (8.4).
Portland ranks 19th in fast break points allowed per game (14.1) while Dallas ranks 29th (17.3).
Dallas is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over in its last five games.
Across its last five outings, Portland is 4-1 ATS with 5 overs.
The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.8, up from 0.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Trail Blazers have scored an average of 121.4 points per game (8.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 111.6 points per game (1.3 above their season average).