The last time BetOnline customers saw Donald Trump running for president, he found himself trailing in the polls coming down the stretch. And in the weeks right before the end of the campaign, he was caught on an old video taking about, well, you remember what he was talking about. It looked like pending disaster. And backers of Hillary Clinton were already celebrating the night people went to the voting booth.
And then we saw the election that shocked the world, demonstrating two things in particular: (1) that Trump, though not professing himself to be a politician, was indeed a politician of the most resilient sort, and (2) that when it comes to him, the accuracy of the polls has to come into question at the very least.
And so once again we sit here with the polls showing that Trump lags behind, with Joe Biden on top almost completely across the board, despite doing a minimum of campaigning. So much has happened in 2020 that any “October surprise” would seem practically moot. And the mainstream media, as usual , appears to be in anyone’s corner BUT Trump’s.
But can he win? That is a reasonable question. And taking all factors into consideration, BetOnline oddsmakers are not selling the incumbent Commander-in-Chief short at all, as they have listed each candidate at -110. They actually had Trump at -120 earlier in the week.
For the sake of clarity, the two are listed as “Republican nominee” and “Democrat nominee.” But we obviously know who the two players are.
Is there value in the number? The simple way to analyze this, I guess, is to acknowledge that there are going to be states that are solidly in the Trump column, like Oklahoma, Nebraska, Alabama, Kentucky, Idaho, the Dakotas and some others. New York, California, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Washington are among those that are more or less in the bank for Biden.
And then there are those that will provide the “battleground.” Some of them are toss-ups. Others may look like they are going one way or the other, but are still competitive.
The expanded list of propositions featured odds in each of the states. If you take a glance at them, it would indicate the Democrat (Biden) has an overall edge.
Let’s take a look at these.
* PENNSYLVANIA — Biden is listed as the -165 favorite (Trump +135). This is a state trump really needs, although Biden, from neighboring Delaware, is ahead in the polls.
* OHIO — Trump is the solid -210 favorite here (Biden at +170). This state represents a great cross-section of America. The president’s slight advantage in the polls does not seem to support this number right now.
* MICHIGAN — Biden is listed at -225 (Trump +185). A loss here would be a crushing blow for the President.
* FLORIDA — With 29 electoral votes, this is a big one. And it’s an adopted second home for Trump. At the moment, Biden s a slight favorite here (-120, with Trump at -110).
* ARIZONA — This is a state Trump would like to count on. But there is some powerful opposition to him, and perhaps not much coming from supporters of the late John McCain. Right now it’s Biden -130, Trump +100.
* GEORGIA — The numbers are Trump -220, Biden +180. But I wouldn’t expect the Democrat to emerge victorious here.
* NORTH CAROLINA — If Trump (-150) wants to solidify the south, he’ll need this state with 15 electoral votes (Biden is +120).
* MINNESOTA — Biden is the -180 favorite (+150 for Trump). This is an interesting one, because rioting in Minneapolis under Democrat control could be a factor that swings votes Trump’s way. But Trump’s refusal to commit federal funds for riot cleanup Will not likely play in his favor.
* WISCONSIN — Another site of recent riots. Seeing things like that could help shape the opinion of independents. Currently Biden is -165, Trump +135.
* TEXAS — We list this because Trump lead isn’t very big here (just two points in the latest polls we saw). However, it would be shocking if Biden won here. Accordingly, Trump is the -400 favorite (with Biden at +300).
A couple of notes in closing – there are some astute observers who don’t think Biden did himself any favors by choosing Kamala Harris as his running mate. For one thing, she said some damaging things about him in the debates. She also had damaging things said about HER. And she hails from a state (California) that Biden is going to win anyway.
Also, although it looks as if things are trending toward Biden, we would reiterate that we saw this scenario last time. Trump’s people contend that their internal polls are telling them something different, and they’re the ones who were right last time.
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