Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New Orleans Saints – Free Betting Pick Week 16

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Sunday, 12/23/2018 at 04:25 pm PITTSBURGH (8-5) at NEW ORLEANS (12-2)
Expanded Matchup Game Center Bet Now Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics
127PITTSBURGH 53 27.4 22.6 8-5 7-6-1 7-7-0 93.9 311.9 405.8 96.9 236.9 333.8
128NEW ORLEANS -6 32.8 20.9 12-2 10-4-0 5-9-0 127.4 258.5 385.9 79.1 262.4 341.5

Last Updated: 2018-12-19

The Pittsburgh Steelers (+6) are heading southwest to face the New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. This pivotal late afternoon matchup is scheduled to start at 4:25 p.m. ET and CBS has the TV rights.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints Betting Odds

New Orleans is giving up 6 points in this matchup. The Steelers are currently getting +190 moneyline odds while the Saints are -230. This matchup could have multiple in-game betting scenarios. The over/under is set at 57.5 points.

This game’s total has not changed after it was initially set at 57.5. Having said that, the line opened at -7 so sharp bettors have been siding with the Steelers.

The Steelers are 8-5-1 straight up (SU) while the Saints are 12-2 SU. The Steelers are 7-6-1 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 2.6 units so far. The team has recorded an O/U mark of 7-7.

The surprising Saints have gained 4.0 units this season. The team is 10-3 ATS and has an O/U record of 5-8.

The Steelers just notched a 17-10 win over New England last week. The passing game could’ve been better as Ben Roethlisberger completed 22 passes for 235 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Jaylen Samuels (142 yards on 19 rush attempts) led the ground attack in the win while Antonio Brown (four receptions, 49 yards, one TD) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (four catches, 40 yards) handled the receiving duties.

New Orleans just earned a 12-9 win over Carolina last week. The allowed the Panthers to put up 181 passing yards and 98 rushing yards. Christian McCaffrey was a bright spot in the defeat for Carolina, recording 53 rushing yards on 15 attempts, along with 67 yards on eight catches. For New Orleans, Drew Brees completed 23-of-35 passes for 203 yards and one interception. Alvin Kamara contributed all over the place in the win. In addition to 67 yards on 14 rush attempts (and one TD), Kamara also reeled in seven catches for 36 yards.

Pittsburgh has run the ball on 34.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New Orleans has a rush percentage of 48.2 percent. The Steelers have run for 94 yards per game and have 16 scores via handoffs this year. The Saints are logging 127 rushing yards per contest and have 22 total rush TDs.

The Steelers have averaged 322 yards in the air overall and have 31 passing TDs so far. The Saints have recorded 266 pass yards per outing and also have 31 total pass scores.

Pittsburgh appears to have an advantage when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s let opponents run for an average of 97 yards and pass for 259 yards per game. New Orleans has allowed 79.1 yards per game on the ground and 283.9 to opponents in the air. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Steelers have given up an ANY/A of 6.42 to opposing QBs, while the Saints are yielding an ANY/A of 6.76.

Roethlisberger has already amassed 4,180 pass yards on the year. He’s connected on 363-of-551 attempts with 28 passing touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Roethlisberger’s got a 6.89 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.33 over the last two games.

Jaylen Samuels (173 rushing yards, 84 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns on the year), JuJu Smith-Schuster (1,144 receiving yards, four receiving TDs) and Antonio Brown (1,077 receiving yards, 13 TDs) have all played significant roles recently.

Drew Brees has recorded 3,465 yards, 30 TDs and four INTs for New Orleans. His ANY/A sits at 8.73 for the season and 4.62 over his past two outings.

We’re expecting the Saints to dictate tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with WR Michael Thomas (1,169 receiving yards, eight receiving TDs this season), Alvin Kamara (809 rush yards, 12 rush TDs, 591 receiving yards, four receiving TDs) and Mark Ingram (530 rush yards, four rush TDs, one TD) have brought significant production to the New Orleans offense.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints Free NFL Pick

SU Winner – Saints, ATS Winner – Steelers, O/U – Under


Betting Trends

As a team, Pittsburgh has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.5 over its last two.

New Orleans has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.1 over its last two.

New Orleans has lost nine fumbles this season while Pittsburgh has lost seven.

New Orleans has won 13 of its last 14 games SU, with a -3-point defeat to Dallas on November 29th accounting for its lone loss over that stretch.

The Steelers offense has registered 12 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Saints have accounted for four such plays.

The Pittsburgh defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while New Orleans has given up 12 such plays.

The Pittsburgh offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while New Orleans has created six such runs.

The Steelers defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Saints have given up six such runs.

The Pittsburgh defensive unit has 46 sacks on the year while New Orleans has 45.

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