Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres Free Pick 05/17/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-05-17

The Pittsburgh Pirates will be taking on the San Diego Padres. The first pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET and this NL matchup will be televised on ATPT and FSSD.

Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres Odds

Pittsburgh (+125) is coming into this one as the underdog to San Diego (-135) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this game at seven runs (-120 for the over and +100 for the under). The game’s current runline odds sit at -170 for betting the Pirates +1.5 runs and +150 for the Padres -1.5.

The Padres are 23-21 straight up (SU) and 20-23 against the spread (ATS). The team has gained 0.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 6.8 units ATS. San Diego has covered the spread just twice in its last seven games and the total went over in four of those seven. The Pirates have gone 21-20 SU this year and are 22-18 against the spread. They’re up 4.8 units for moneyline gamblers through the early portions of the year and 0.8 units ATS. Pittsburgh has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven.

San Diego games have a 19-22-2 over/under record so far in 2019. The Pirates have an over/under record of 20-19-1.

Right-hander Jordan Lyles is projected to start for Pittsburgh. Lyles is 3-1 with a 2.09 ERA and 35 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Padres this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.

The Padres will put the ball in the left hand of Joey Lucchesi (3-2, 4.57 ERA, 1.35 WHIP), who has 40 punchouts and 13 walks. Lucchesi only made one start against the Pirates in 2018 (1-0, 0.00 ERA and five strikeouts across five innings).

Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starters own a 4.09 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 7.86 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.78, along with a K/9 of 10.61.

Pirates hitters have slashed .240/.301/.377 on their way to 3.7 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.2 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

Pittsburgh’s hitters have been led by first baseman Josh Bell and right fielder Melky Cabrera. Bell is slashing .325/.394/.675 with 12 home runs, 39 RBIs and 27 runs scored, while Cabrera is hitting .339 with three homers, 12 RBIs and 13 runs scored.

For the home team, San Diego’s pitchers have allowed 4.2 runs per game overall in 2019. The team’s starters have an ERA of 3.74, a WHIP of 1.21 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.1. The bullpen has a 4.18 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 10.5 K/9.

San Diego’s offense has put up 3.8 runs per outing, including 4.1 per game over its last 10 games and 3.6 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .220/.279/.390 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that span.

First baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Manny Machado have led the Padres’ batters this year. Hosmer is slashing .283/.333/.446 with six home runs, 24 RBIs and 22 runs scored, while Machado’s line is .267/.343/.472 with nine homers, 23 RBIs and 23 runs scored.

The Pirates have lost 2.4 units and are 5-6 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in seven of those games, compared to four that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Padres have netted 1.8 units and are 14-20 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 15 of those games, compared to 17 that went under the total.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Padres, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – UNDER


Betting Trends

The over has cashed in four of San Diego’s last seven games.

The Pirates have lost three of their last four games SU.

Pittsburgh has recorded 22.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 25.4 over its last five.

The Pirates have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Padres have hit 14 over their last 10.

The Pirates have a team OPS of .678 this season, including an OPS of .613 against left-handed pitchers. The Padres’ OPS stands at .699 overall and .720 against lefties.

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