Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres Free Pick 05/16/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-05-16

The Pittsburgh Pirates will head west to PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres. This NL matchup gets underway at 10:10 p.m. ET and fans can catch the game on ATPT and FSSD.

Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres Odds

Vegas has listed San Diego (-135) as the favorite over Pittsburgh (+125). If you think the game’s total will finish under 7.5 runs, then bookmakers are teeing up -110 odds. Taking the over give you -110 odds. The game’s current runline odds stand at -170 for betting the Pirates +1.5 runs and +150 for the Padres -1.5.

The Pirates are 21-19 SU and are 22-17 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 5.8 units for gamblers taking the moneyline over the early portions of the year and 2.2 units ATS. The Padres, on the other hand, are 22-21 SU and 20-22 ATS. They’ve gained 1.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline while gaining 5.2 units ATS.

Neither team has positioned itself as a strong over/under play this year. San Diego games have had an over/under record of 19-21-2 so far in 2019. The Pirates have an over/under record of 19-19-1.

Trevor Williams will get the start for the visiting Pirates. The right-handed Williams (2-1, 3.40 ERA) has recorded 37 punchouts in 50.1 innings so far. This will be his first start against San Diego this year. He made two starts against the Padres in 2018, putting together a 0-1 record against them with a 6.75 ERA and nine strikeouts.

The Padres are sending lefty Eric Lauer (2-4, 5.75 ERA) to the hill. Lauer has 35 strikeouts and 14 walks to his name, along with a 1.45 WHIP. Lauer made two starts against the team in 2018, posting a 0-1 record in 2018, compiling a 0-1 record with a 6.52 ERA.

Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 7.79 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.73, along with a K/9 of 10.68.

The Pirates offense has slashed .240/.303/.378 on its way to 3.7 runs scored per game this year, including 4.4 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

First baseman Josh Bell and outfielder Melky Cabrera have led Pittsburgh’s hitters. Bell is slashing .333/.404/.693 with 12 home runs, 39 RBIs and 27 runs scored, while Cabrera (.339/.375/.471) has produced three homers, 12 RBIs and 13 runs scored.

In the other dugout, San Diego’s pitchers have given up 4.2 runs per game overall this year. The club’s starters have a 3.79 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.21 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 10.5 K/9.

The San Diego offense has put up 3.8 runs per contest, including 4.3 per game over its last 10 games and 3.2 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .243/.280/.370 over its last five games and is 1-4 SU during that span.

First baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Manny Machado have led the way for the Padres’ batters so far. Hosmer is hitting .282/.330/.448 with six home runs, 24 RBIs and 21 runs scored, and Machado’s line is .266/.339/.475 with nine homers, 23 RBIs and 23 runs.

The Pirates have lost 2.4 units and are 5-6 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in seven of those games, as opposed to four that’ve hit the under against lefties. On the other hand, the Padres have netted 2.8 units and are 14-19 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 15 of those games, as opposed to 16 that’ve gone under.

Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres Free MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Padres, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – UNDER


Betting Notes

The under has hit in three of San Diego’s last seven games.

The Padres have dropped four of their last five games SU.

Pittsburgh has recorded 23.0 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 23.6 over its last five.

The Pirates have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Padres have hit 14 over their last 10.

The Pirates have an OPS of .681 this season, including an OPS of .607 against left-handed pitchers. The Padres’ OPS sits at .698 overall and .728 against southpaws.

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