Leading up to game three of this NL Central battle, the Brewers (59-52, 30-25 home) will send Corbin Burnes to the mound to take on the Pirates (49-60, 23-32 away) and Bailey Falter. Find out who I like to come out on top in this Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers matchup in Milwaukee.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES VS MILWAUKEE BREWERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 Runs

This game will be played at American Family Field at 7:10 ET on Saturday, August 5th.

WHY BET THE PITTSBURGH PIRATES:

  • In their last ten games, the Pirates have gone 7-3 vs. the runline.
  • Over their last five games as the favorite, the Brewers are just 2-3 against the runline.
  • The Brewers have gone 1-2 in Corbin Burnes’ last five starts.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES LOOKING FOR UPSET AS ROAD UNDERDOGS

For the season, the Pirates have put together a record of 49-60 and are 4th in the NL Central, putting them nine games out of first place. Pittsburgh’s overall series record sits at 12-19-3. On the road, they have gone 23-32 and 26-28 at home.

Today marks Bailey Falter’s ninth outing of the 2023 campaign, and his record currently stands at 0-7. His ERA is 5.13, and opponents have managed an on-base percentage of .328 against him. He has struck out 28 batters while his WHIP sits at 1.44. On the road, Falter’s ERA is 5.04, compared to 6.19 when he pitches at home.

Bailey Falter was handed a 6-3 defeat in his latest start against the Giants, surrendering six runs on eight hits over 4 1/3 innings. The Pirates were unable to overcome the deficit, resulting in a loss for Falter.

Offensively, Pittsburgh is ranked 23rd in the league with an average of 4.1 runs per game. When looking over their last ten matchups, the Pirates averaged 4.4 runs per contest, which is 10th best in that span. In terms of their power numbers, Pittsburgh is 25th in all of baseball, with a total of 105 home runs.

The Pirates have seen Bryan Reynolds hit three home runs over their last ten games, bringing his season total to 13. Reynolds has been a consistent presence in the lineup, boasting an overall batting average of .268.

WILL THE MILWAUKEE BREWERS TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS AT HOME?

So far this season, Milwaukee has played in 34 series, going 17-16-1. Their current record of 59-52 is good for first place in the NL Central. On the road, the Brewers have gone 29-27 compared to 30-25 at home.

Today marks Corbin Burnes’ 23rd outing of the season, with a 9-6 record to show for it. His ERA is 3.44 and opposing batters have a .266 OBP against him. Burnes has struck out 136 hitters and his WHIP stands at 1.05. When away from home, his ERA drops to 3.25, while it rises to 4.64 when pitching at home.

Burnes’ last start ended with a quality outing, but the Brewers were still defeated by Washington 5-3. Despite the loss, Burnes put together six frames of work, giving up two earned runs on four hits and finishing with a no-decision.

Having gone deep 5 times in their last five games, the Brewers are 8th in that span. At 4.2 runs per game, Milwaukee is 21st in the league. This figure has come on a team batting average of .234 while hitting a total of 116 home runs (22nd).

William Contreras has been a consistent presence in the Milwaukee lineup this season, boasting a .276 batting average and .448 slugging percentage. In the team’s last ten games, he has been particularly impressive, leading the Brewers in hits with a .294 average.