Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick 09/20/19

Starling Marte and the Pittsburgh Pirates will head west to Miller Park to face their division rival Milwaukee Brewers. The matchup begins at 8:10 p.m. ET and fans can watch the game on both ATPT and FSWI.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds

Vegas has listed Pittsburgh (+165) as the underdog to Milwaukee (-175). If you think the game’s total will go under 9 runs, bookmakers are currently offering even money odds (+100). Taking the over will give you -120 odds. This game currently has a runline of Pirates +1.5 (-135) and Brewers -1.5 (+115).

The Brewers are 83-70 straight up (SU) and 70-82 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 2.1 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 18.4 units ATS. Milwaukee has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Pirates are 65-88 SU and have gone 73-79 against the spread. They’re down 11.8 units for moneyline bettors and 22.7 units ATS. Pittsburgh has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the under has hit in three of those seven.

Milwaukee games have had an over/under record of 65-82-5 in 2019. Pittsburgh has been a strong over bet with a total record of 86-58-8.

The southpaw Steven Brault is projected to start for the visiting Pirates. Brault is 4-5 with a 4.98 ERA and 84 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with 20 strikeouts and a 2.66 ERA against Milwaukee this year (four starts).

The Brewers are turning to righty Chase Anderson (6-4, 4.50 ERA), who’s got 118 strikeouts and 47 walks as well as a WHIP of 1.29. Anderson is 1-0 with 19 strikeouts and a 3.48 ERA across four starts against Pittsburgh this year.

Milwaukee’s pitching staff has allowed 4.8 runs per game overall in 2019 as a unit. The team’s starters have a 4.57 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.45 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 10.2 K/9. In 70 games against divisional foes, Brewers starters have an ERA of 4.92 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.96.

The Milwaukee offense has produced 4.7 runs per contest, including 4.6 per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .217/.285/.420 over its last five games and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.

The Brewers’ batters have been led by outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Yelich is hitting .329/.429/.671 with 44 home runs, 97 RBIs, 100 runs and 30 stolen bases, while Cain’s line is .251/.316/.357 with 10 homers, 45 RBIs, 72 runs and 17 stolen bases.

In the visiting dugout, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 5.7 runs per game and its starters own a 5.45 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 8.27 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.93, along with a K/9 of 9.94.

Pirates hitters have slashed .267/.326/.426 on their way to 4.7 runs scored per game this year, including 4.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (0-5 SU).

Outfielders Starling Marte and Bryan Reynolds continue to lead Pittsburgh’s hitters. Marte is hitting .295/.342/.503 with 23 home runs, 82 RBIs, 97 runs and 25 stolen bases, while Reynolds (.317/.383/.510) is up to 16 homers, 67 RBIs and 83 runs scored.

The Pirates have lost 2.7 units and are 56-56 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in 59 of those games, compared to 46 that’ve gone under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Brewers have lost 3.0 units and are 19-28 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has hit in 15 of those games, compared to 29 that went under the total.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER