At 4:10 PM ET, the Pittsburgh Pirates take on the Miami Marlins in this NL matchup at loanDepot Park in Miami, FL. The Marlins are the favorites, with a money line of -136 compared to the Pirates’ +115.

Mitch Keller is the starting pitcher for the Pirates, while Jesús Luzardo gets the nod for the Marlins. The over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, with the over at -102 and the under at -119.

MIAMI MARLINS VS PITTSBURGH PIRATES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Miami Marlins Moneyline -136

This game will be played at loanDepot Park at 4:10 ET on Thursday, March 28th.

HOW TO BET THE PIRATES VS MARLINS:

  • We have the Marlins winning by a score of 5 to 4
  • However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Pirates to cover
  • As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

Pirates Records & Stats

Despite finishing with a record below .500, the Pirates were actually a winning team when favored last season, going 21-12. However, they were just 55-74 as the underdog. On the road, Pittsburgh went 37-44 compared to 39-42 at home.

In the National League, the Pirates finished 11th and 4th in the NL Central. Their overall series record was 19-27-5, and they were 9-14-3 on the road compared to 10-13-2 at home. In night games, Pittsburgh went 49-52 last season.

The Pirates finished last season with a below-.500 run differential, as they were outscored by an average of 0.6 runs per game. Their run line record for the season was 84-78, including a 45-36 mark on the road. In games that they covered the run line, their average scoring margin was +2.7 runs per game, compared to -4.1 runs per game in games they did not cover the run line.

The Pirates’ over/under record last season was 86-70, and their games averaged a combined 9.1 runs per game. Their average over/under line was 8.7 runs, and 89.5% of their games had higher O/U lines than today’s 7.5. In games with an O/U line of 7.5, the over/under record was 6-6.

Mitch Keller is coming off a season in which he made 32 starts and went 13-9 with an ERA of 4.21. His WHIP for the season was 1.25, and he finished the year with 18 quality starts. Keller’s FIP for the season was 3.80, and he allowed a total of 25 home runs. Last year, he had one complete game and one shutout. For the season, Keller averaged 9.73 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.55 walks per nine innings. His strikeouts per walk ratio for the season was 3.8.

At home last season, the Pirates averaged 4.2 runs per game (23rd) and had a home batting average of .238 (22nd). On the road, they were slightly better, averaging 4.4 runs per game (19th) and hitting .228 (23rd). Overall, Pittsburgh was 21st in strikeouts and 8th in walks. For the season, their on-base percentage was .315 (15th) and their slugging percentage was .392 (20th).

The Pirates’ top returning home run hitter is Jack Suwinski, who hit 26 home runs and drove in 74 runs last season. Bryan Reynolds is the second-leading returning home run hitter after hitting 24 home runs and driving in 84 runs. Michael A. Taylor is the top off-season addition to the team after hitting 21 home runs and batting .220 last season for the Twins.

Marlins Records & Stats

Despite finishing with a record above .500, the Marlins missed out on the playoffs last season. They were eliminated in the Wild Card round by the Phillies, losing the series 2-0. Miami’s overall record last year was 84-78.

Within the National League, the Marlins finished in 5th place and 3rd in the NL East. Their series record for the season was 25-25-1, and they went 46-35 at home compared to 38-43 on the road.

As the favorite, Miami went 43-32 last season, while they were 41-46 as the underdog. When favored at home, the Marlins went 30-22, and their overall night game record was 44-46.

At home last season, the Marlins were 35-46 vs. the run line, compared to 39-42 on the road. Overall, they were 74-88 vs. the run line, with an average scoring margin of -.4 runs per game. In games they covered the run line, their average scoring margin was +3.2 runs per game, compared to -3.3 runs per game in games they did not cover the run line. For the season, they were the favorite in 46.3% of their games, going 26-49 vs. the run line.

Last season, the Marlins’ games had an average over/under line of 8.2 runs, and their over/under record was 75-83. In games with an O/U line of 7.5, the over/under record was 21-21. Overall, 53.1% of their games finished with more runs than 7.5 runs.

Coming off a season in which he made 32 starts, Jesús Luzardo finished with a record of 10-10 and an ERA of 3.58. His WHIP for the season was 1.22, while his batting average allowed was .234. Luzardo made 17 quality starts and finished the season with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.8. For the season, he allowed a total of 22 home runs.

The Marlins’ offense struggled to score runs last season, averaging just 4.1 runs per game (25th). They were especially ineffective on the road, where they averaged 3.8 runs per game (27th). In terms of strikeouts, Miami was the 5th best team in the league. Overall, they hit .259 as a team, which was 4th in the MLB. At home, the Marlins hit .269 (3rd), compared to .233 on the road. Their home run total of 166 was 20th in the league.

Jake Burger is the top returning home run hitter for the Marlins after hitting 34 home runs last season. He finished the season with a .250 batting average and a slugging percentage of .518. Josh Bell is the team’s second-leading returning home run hitter after hitting 22 home runs last season. Luis Arraez led the team in hits last season with a batting average of .354. Christian Bethancourt is the team’s top off-season addition after hitting 11 home runs last season for the Rays.