Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs Betting Pick 07/12/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-07-12

Josh Bell and the Pittsburgh Pirates will head west to Wrigley Field to take on their division rival Chicago Cubs. The game gets underway 2:20 p.m. ET and NBC Sports Chicago will be showing the matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs Odds

The Pirates are 44-45 SU and are 47-42 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 6.6 units for moneyline bettors, despite having lost 2.9 units ATS. Pittsburgh’s covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the over has hit in six of those seven. The Cubs, on the other hand, are 47-43 SU and 44-46 ATS. They’ve lost 6.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 1.2 units ATS. Chicago has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven.

Cubs games have an over/under record of 45-39-6 so far in 2019. Pittsburgh has also been a solid over bet with a total record of 52-33-4.

Chris Archer will get the nod for the visiting Pirates. The right-handed Archer is 3-6 with a 5.49 ERA and 88 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with eight strikeouts and a 5.40 ERA against Chicago this year.

The Cubs will send righty Yu Darvish (2-4, 5.01 ERA) to the mound. Darvish has 111 strikeouts and 49 walks to his credit as well as a 1.34 WHIP. Darvish is 0-1 with 10 strikeouts and a 6.00 ERA over two starts against Pittsburgh this year.

As a unit, Chicago’s pitching staff has yielded 4.4 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have a 4.02 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.20 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 8.9 K/9. In 31 divisional games, Cubs starters have an ERA of 4.00 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.24.

The Chicago offense is putting up 5.1 runs per contest, including 5.0 per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over its last five. The team has hit .256/.333/.500 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

Shortstop Javier Baez and third baseman Kris Bryant have led the way for the Cubs’ hitters this year. Baez is hitting .289/.324/.556 with 22 home runs, 62 RBIs and 59 runs scored, while Bryant’s line is .297/.403/.552 with 17 homers, 44 RBIs and 66 runs.

In the visiting dugout, Pittsburgh’s pitching staff allowed 5.3 runs per game and its starters own a 4.88 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 8.34 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.96, along with a K/9 of 9.76.

The Pirates offense has slashed .271/.329/.437 on its way to 4.9 runs scored per game this season, including 4.9 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

First baseman Josh Bell and outfielder Starling Marte have led Pittsburgh’s hitters. Bell is slashing .302/.376/.648 with 27 home runs, 84 RBIs and 69 runs scored, while Marte (.279/.321/.464) has produced 12 homers, 45 RBIs, 54 runs and 13 steals.

The Pirates have gained 7.5 units and are 37-31 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 38 of those games, compared to 27 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Cubs have lost 1.9 units and are 37-36 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 37 of those games, compared to 32 which went under the total.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER


Betting Trends

The under has hit in three of Chicago’s last seven games.

The Pirates have a team OPS of .766 this season and an OPS of .789 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Cubs’ OPS sits at .790 overall and .806 against righties.

Chicago has recorded 23.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 22.4 over its last five.

The Pirates have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games. The Cubs have hit 16 over their last 10.

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