Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves Betting Pick 06/10/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-06-10

Freddie Freeman and the Atlanta Braves will go for their fourth straight win as they play host to the Pittsburgh Pirates at SunTrust Park. This NL matchup begins at 7:20 p.m. ET and fans can watch the game on both ATPT and FSSE.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves Odds

Oddsmakers are listing Atlanta (-155) as the favorite over Pittsburgh (+145). The total sits at 9.5 runs and bettors can wager on the over for -120 and the under for +100. This game currently has a runline of Pirates +1.5 (-150) and Braves -1.5 (+130).

The Braves are 36-29 straight up (SU) and 31-33 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 1.6 units for moneyline bettors while earning 0.5 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Pirates have gone 30-34 SU this year and are 32-31 against the spread. They’ve accumulated 2.2 units for moneyline bettors, but have lost 4.7 units ATS. Pittsburgh has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.

Atlanta games have had an over/under record of 33-26-5 thus far in 2019. The Pirates have also been a decent over bet with a total record of 36-25-2.

Right-hander Joe Musgrove is the projected starter for the visiting Pirates. Musgrove is 4-6 with a 4.44 ERA and 57 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with six strikeouts and a 3.38 ERA against Atlanta this year.

The Braves are handing the ball to righty Kevin Gausman (2-5, 6.15 ERA), who has 60 strikeouts and 23 walks as well as a 1.47 WHIP. Gausman is 0-1 with three strikeouts and a 12.60 ERA in one start against Pittsburgh this year.

As a unit, Atlanta’s pitching staff has allowed 4.7 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have an ERA of 4.24, a WHIP of 1.29 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.1. The bullpen has a 4.27 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 9.6 K/9.

Atlanta’s hitters have produced 5.0 runs per contest, including 5.5 per game over its last 10 games and 4.0 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .226/.318/.407 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that span.

First baseman Freddie Freeman and outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. have led the Braves’ offense this year. Freeman is hitting .312/.401/.592 with 17 home runs, 41 RBIs and 46 runs scored, and Acuna Jr. is hitting .279 with 14 homers, 41 RBIs, 40 runs and eight steals.

In the visiting dugout, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 5.5 runs per game and its starters own a 4.78 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.12 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.39, along with a K-per-9 of 9.68.

The Pirates offense has slashed .256/.315/.407 on its way to 4.3 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.3 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).

First baseman Josh Bell and right fielder Starling Marte continue to lead Pittsburgh’s offense. Bell is slashing .325/.388/.667 with 18 home runs, 57 RBIs and 46 runs scored. Marte (.283/.324/.448) has produced seven homers, 26 RBIs, 35 runs and 11 steals.

The Pirates have gained 4.7 units and are 24-23 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in 25 of those games, compared to 20 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Braves have lost 3.5 units and are 23-25 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 21 of those games, as opposed to 23 that’ve gone under.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER


Betting Trends

The over has cashed in five of Atlanta’s last seven games.

The Pirates have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games, including seven over their last five.

The Pirates have a team OPS of .721 this season and an OPS of .736 when facing right-handed pitchers. The Braves’ OPS stands at .770 overall and .752 versus righties.

Pittsburgh has posted 25.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 22.0 over its last five.

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2019 MLB Betting Guide

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