dietz Posts:263 Followers:1
On 05/03/2013 10:26 AM in General


The Kentucky oaks is going today and this race is full of amazing fillies...... when I first saw the field I was all over DREAMING OF JULIA. She ran a RECORD speed figure last time out and when I say a record I mean a record of all time.
Secreteriat like numbers. She won by 21 lengths last time out with a speed figure of 114. The question is can she do that again, odds and history say no but even if she takes a step back (bounce) and falls back to a 100 she can still win the race.This is VERY good horse. If she ran a 114 in the derby she would win it by 10 lengths against the boys. Basically this race is hers to win or lose. She does anything remotely close to her last race and it is a romp, betting against her you are hoping she bounces. That is the gamble you take.

The word around the track is Midnight Lucky is the eye opening horse of the field with her morning work outs and speed figures. She set the track record at Sunland on her last race and this is Bafferts only horse in Oaks or Derby. She also has a darn good jockey in Bejarano.

Close the Hatches is a horse that can sneak up on everyone and win it all and can pay at big odds. This horse may go off at 10-1 and her late kick in her last race may be the difference is BEHOLDER and MIDNIGHT LUCKY get into a speed duel. The hottest jockey on the planet right now is Rosario.

BEHOLDER front running horse who will have to change her running style if she is to win the race. This horse goes nose to nose with MIDNIGHT lucky it will be tough to go 1 1/8. She will have to sit back and rate a little bit if she does, she has a good shot at it. The trainer is Mandella who has his horses ready when they need to be. He shows up on the big days.

Unlimited Budget is the biggest fillie in the field. This horse is built to go long distance and word is she is training very very well. She as ran 1 1/8 mile before and is undefeated, but the again so are 4 other horses in here. This horse seems to be the hot pick of late with handicappers and horse people.

This race to too tough to pick. You can choose any of the horses above and have legitimate reasons. I won't just throw a horse out there to name a horse for those who read this. This is DREAMING OF JULIAS race to lose, and most people are betting she bounces off her last race, but again, she bounces to a 100 buyer she wins. You may get her a 4-1 or even 5-1 on her and that is crazy for a horse that did what she did last time out.

I said yesterday I like BEHOLDER, she has 3 grade 1 wins on her and her speed is top notch, but after reading more I fear she will get in a speed duel with MIDNIGHT LUCKY and wont have enough in tank for the last 1/8 of a mile. I am leaning towards CLOSE THE HATCHES in hopes a speed duel takes the prior two out AND hoping DREAMING OF JULIA bounces.


All my analysis for the derby will have gone out the window if the track is sloppy please read who I picked if the weather is bad.

sharpsquare Posts:3190 Followers:5
05/03/2013 12:40 PM

Dietz great info as always man thanks for taking the time to post it all

spooky Posts:4696 Followers:319
05/03/2013 02:23 PM

Im rolling with Close Hatches and then boxing her with Dreaming of Julia.
Then playing a 4 horse box utilizing Beholder and Unlimited Budget

Good Luck Dietz. Thanks for all the horse racing input.

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thatman-z Posts:766 Followers:17
05/03/2013 03:05 PM

I also like Close Hatches. Not sure how Im going to play her yet tho. The only thing that I dont like about Dreaming of Julia is her Jockey! He is horrible!

thatman-z Posts:766 Followers:17
05/03/2013 03:09 PM

2 - 4 - 11 - and either 5 or 10 for my superfecta box

UPDATE: 10 Scratched Might take the 7 horse.

bulldog Posts:932 Followers:9
05/03/2013 06:45 PM

saw there were over 100,000 at the races today; big crowd

bigcat21 Posts:722 Followers:30
05/03/2013 11:14 PM

So close yet so far away played the late pick 4 got to the last leg had the 3,4,8,11
oh well going to play the late and early pick four tomorrow should be brutal to cap cause of the rain

dietz Posts:263 Followers:1
05/07/2013 11:05 AM

That race was one tough race to pick and wow, BOMB comes in. I did not even look at that horse, just not even close.
Woman across from me at the bar/OTB (off track betting) had 6 over ALL for the OAKS/DERBY double. She made out pretty darn good.

I went back at looked at the horses again and I still would not have chosen that horse. UNREAL