cnotes Posts:33125 Followers:38
10/07/2011 10:53 PM


Week 5

NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 5 betting notes

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-6)

Why Raiders cover: They can run ball, which keeps Texans QB Matt Schaub off field. Even in a 31-19 home loss to Patriots, Oakland gained 160 yards on ground. Raiders lead league at 178.8 rushing ypg. Oakland has cashed five straight following a SU loss.

Why Texans cover: Well, it appears Arian Foster can once again run ball, after blowing up for 155 yards in win vs. Pittsburgh. Houston 5-1 ATS last six vs. Men in Black.

Total (48.5): Raiders like to play to over, with streaks of 6-2 overall and 12-4 inside AFC. But Texans on under run of 5-1 last six as a chalk.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)

Why Cardinals cover: They cashed last year in 27-24 loss at Minnesota, with Derek Anderson at QB. Kevin Kolb a big upgrade, going against aging Donovan McNabb. Underdog the play in last five Cards-Vikes matchups.

Why Vikings cover: 8-3-1 ATS last dozen as home favorite. Cards 6-13 ATS last 19 overall.

Total (45.5): Over looks like right move, as it’s on stretches of 43-18 with Arizona as a road pup, 4-0 with Minny as home chalk and 4-1 in this NFC rivalry.

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

Why Titans cover: Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (foot) at less than full strength, and Pittsburgh looking old and slow, despite status as defending AFC champs. Tennessee QB Matt Hasselbeck seems revived. Underdog 7-1 ATS in last eight Titans-Steelers tilts.

Why Steelers cover: Have covered spread in last four at Heinz Field and are good bounce-back bet, with runs of 5-0 ATS after SU loss and 5-1 ATS following pointspread setback.

Total (39): Over 6-1 in Steelers’ last seven AFC contests and 7-2 last nine Pittsburgh meetings in this rivalry.

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

Why Chiefs cover: Coming off victory over winless Minnesota. Todd Haley’s troops 9-4 ATS last 13 getting points. And winless Colts don’t have Peyton Manning, a gift that keeps on giving to opponents. Indy 2-6 ATS last eight at home.

Why Colts cover: Tyler Painter actually made some huge plays in Monday loss at Tampa Bay, with Indy cashing as double-digit dog for second straight week. Colts 8-2 ATS last 10 vs. K.C.

Total (39): Under 5-1 K.C.’s last six as pup and 11-1-1 Chiefs’ last 13 roadies as dog of three or less. Last four Chiefs-Colts contests in Indy went under.

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)

Why Bengals cover: Because Jags are favored despite averaging league-worst 9.8 ppg, combining for meager 23 points in last three outings (7.7 ppg). Cincy 6-1 ATS last seven overall and 5-0 ATS last five catching points. Jacksonville 1-6 ATS last seven overall.

Why Jaguars cover: Have hit five of last six ATS laying points at home.

Total (37): With two under-developed rookie QBs, game has all makings of an under. All four Jacksonville games this year have gone low.

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (-9.5)

Why Seahawks cover: The G-Men are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 laying points at home.

Why Giants cover: Seattle still starting Tarvaris Jackson at QB. And Seahawks rarely good making three time-zone trip to East Coast. Most recent case in point: 24-0 loss at Pittsburgh three weeks ago.

Total (43.5): Seahawks have paid over bettors 12 of last 15 overall and six of last seven on highway.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills

Why Eagles cover: They are flat-out desperate. Sexy Super Bowl pick sitting at 1-3 SU and ATS, and could be three games out in NFC East if they stumble in this spot. Bills 3-10-1 ATS last 15 as home pup.

Why Bills cover: Previously unbeaten, but got dose of reality at Cincinnati and should be ready this week. In last home game, Ryan Fitzpatrick & Co. rallied from 21-0 deficit to shock Patriots. Philly on slew of negative pointspread streaks, including 1-6 overall and 1-7 giving points.

Total (49.5): Total has gone high every game this year for Buffalo and five straight overall. Over a scorching 10-1 in Philly’s last 11 roadies.

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers

Why Saints cover: Big advantage at QB, with veteran and former Super Bowl winner Drew Brees vs. Panthers rookie and top draft pick Cam Newton. In this rivalry, Saints 7-2 ATS last nine in Carolina and road team 20-8 ATS last 28.

Why Panthers cover: Newton coming along far better than expected, helping Carolina cover three of four so far. In fact, he’s passing for 374 ypg, third in league, one spot ahead of Brees (351 ypg). New Orleans 4-9 ATS last 13 NFC South games.

Total (51.5): With all the yards these two QBs rack up, over could come in, even as high as it is. But in this division rivalry, under has hit four straight overall and eight straight at Carolina. Under also 10-1 in Saints’ last 11 division tilts.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

Why Buccaneers cover: At betting window, Bucs dig underdog role (6-1 ATS last seven) and road trips (15-5-1 ATS last 21).

Why 49ers cover: Confident coming off big, come-from-behind upset at Philly. Perhaps new coach Jim Harbaugh figured out how to unlock talent in QB Alex Smith. Niners 4-0-1 ATS last five.

Total (41): Over 3-1 for both teams this year and 4-0 in San Fran’s last four at Candlestick. But under 4-1 Bucs’ last five on highway.

San Diego Chargers (-4) at Denver Broncos

Why Chargers cover: Because that’s what they generally do in this AFC West rivalry, going 7-1-2 ATS last 10. Philip Rivers is a very good QB for San Diego. Kyle Orton is not – after winning his first six starts for Broncos, he’s gone 6-20. Denver 11-27-2 ATS last 40 at Mile High.

Why Broncos cover: This is like a traffic cop at an accident, telling bystanders, “Nothing to see here.” But if we must: Chargers on ATS skids of 1-4-1 overall and 2-6-1 on the road.

Total (46): With Denver involved, over constantly in play, like in last week’s 49-23 loss at Green Bay. Over on runs for Broncos of 7-1 overall, 10-1 against winning teams and 4-1 in Denver vs. Chargers.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9.5)

Why Jets cover: That’s a lot of points for a team that reached past two AFC title games. And road team 18-7-1 ATS last 26 in this rivalry.

Why Patriots cover: Jets are a mess. Mark Sanchez not a franchise quarterback, playing behind sieve-like offensive line.

Total (49.5): Both teams play to over a lot. For Jets, over on surges of 9-1 in underdog role and 17-4-1 on road. QB Tom Brady and prolific Pats offense putting up 33.8 ppg this year, and over has gone 16-5-1 last 22 in Foxborough.

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Why Packers cover: They play like Super Bowl champs that they are. Packers have won 10 in a row SU and gone 8-2 ATS in that stretch. One of those wins was 48-21 shellacking of Atlanta in playoffs at Georgia Dome last season.

Why Falcons cover: Revenge and desperation. Matt Ryan & Co. embarrassed in playoff beatdown, and Atlanta needs win to avoid falling below .500, especially with NFC South rivals New Orleans and Tampa playing well.

Total (53.5): Despite Packers’ penchant for scoring, under 10-3 in last 13 on highway and 7-1 in last eight as road chalk.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5.5)

Why Bears cover: They seem to shine under Monday night spotlight, at 5-1 ATS in last six appearances. And Detroit lacks that experience, playing first MNF game in 10 years.

Why Lions cover: If they were due for letdown, it was last week at Dallas. And they did let down for a half, before huge comeback win. Detroit favored for first time in years in this NFC North rivalry, and Jim Schwartz’s troops want whole nation to see they’re no fluke. Lions among best bets in league, with ATS streaks of 16-5-2 overall, 9-1-1 after SU win and 12-2-2 after spread-cover.

Total (47.5): Bears tend to play to under, while Lions play to over. But when these rivals meet, over 4-1 last five overall and 4-1 last five at Ford Field. Detroit’s QB-wideout connection of Matt Stafford-Calvin Johnson looks unstoppable.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33125 Followers:38
10/07/2011 10:54 PM


Week 5

NFL Total Bias: Week 5's best over/under bets

As a self-confessed media junkie, one of my favorite things about the NFL has always been its sound bites.

Whether it’s due to the nature of the game, the sheer bravado of football, or underlying marketing agendas, there’s just no other league that can talk smack like the NFL.

And I can’t get enough of it.

A lot of it has to do with my love of interviews in general, guys digging to get the good stuff. But to be totally honest, it’s a guilty pleasure more than anything. I’m a sports gossip gigolo.

The highlight of the week had Washington Redskins tight end Chris Cooley (who has a grand total of 66 receiving yards this season, I might add) ripping on Tony Romo just two weeks after Romo beat the Skins with some cracked ribs and a punctured lung.

“It’s amazing, amazing to watch him choke like that." Cooley said of Romo and Dallas’ meltdown against Detroit last week on the LaVar and Dukes radio show.

“I’m just saying, I’m up 24 points in the third quarter, if I’m the head coach, I feel like I could probably just take a knee for the rest of the game, punt it away and there’s no way that Detroit’s gonna drive on you that many times.”

“The only way you’re gonna give up that many points is turnovers, right? It’s hilarious to watch him throw pick sixes too, back-to-back. I loved it.”

Well, as offside as that might have been, Cooley, top shelf of you for saying it. You’re my kind of mouthpiece.

Some interesting comments came out of Oakland this week as well. Full disclosure: I’ve always hated the Raiders. Everything about the franchise from Al “Skeletor” Davis all the way to the black hole just rubs me the wrong way.

That’s why Hugh Jackson’s comments on Monday, a day after his club lost to New England at home, really caught my attention.

"We're going to win the AFC West," Jackson told reporters. "We're going to do everything we can to get in the playoffs and go challenge for a Super Bowl. I am not backing down from that."

"I expected to be 4-0. I really did," he continued. "I'm not going to back off of that, and we're not. We're 2-2, so I'm disappointed but not discouraged because I know what's in the locker room."

The weird thing is that a few days later, I actually agree with him. Hide the women and children, gents. These Raiders aren’t going away.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-6, 48.5)

With Darren McFadden and Michael Bush rolling along on the ground and a bunch of “Lamborghinis and Mercedes Benzes” at the wideout position, I really like this offense. Jason Campbell knows how to manage an attack that relies on the run and controls the clock.

I was pretty impressed the Raiders actually held the Patriots to 31 points last week and I think this defense will improve as the season moves along. With the Chargers banged up and struggling to find their stride, this is a two-horse race for the division title and the Raiders have more than enough in the stable to take make it a photo finish at the very least.

This week they’re going to see a steady diet of Houston’s stallion Arian Foster with Andre Johnson out with a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, the Raiders will hand it to their own stud, Run DMC, in a battle between two of the best backs in the league.

I can hear the clock ticking already.

Pick: Under

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5.5, 47.5)

In the preseason, a number of Chicago’s beat writers accused the Bears, in one way or another, of having an identity crisis. They argued that Bears were trying to be a passing team without the personnel.

They cited Mike Martz’s crazy offensive schemes, the rotten offensive line, the ridiculous Roy Williams signing, the foolish trade that sent Greg Olsen to Carolina, and the ongoing contract squabble with running back Matt Forte as ammunition.

They couldn’t have been more correct.

But for one week at least, the Bears got back to what they do best – running the ball to set up play-action and causing major havoc on defense and special teams - in their win over Carolina. Forte scampered for 205 yards on the ground, leaving Cutler with just 17 passing attempts in a 34-29 victory.

Detroit’s looking at this as a huge statement game on Monday night and it’s not outrageous to think that Megatron could pull in three majors on his own. Scary stuff.

This is the game of the week, hands down.

Pick: Over

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 39.5)

OK, we get it. Pittsburgh isn’t exactly rolling out the Steel Curtain defense.

The Steelers are getting gashed on the ground and have a number of major injuries, including James Harrison sitting out with a broken eye socket. That isn’t keeping him from sharing his two cents on what’s going wrong.

"Every man needs to do his job, take care of his responsibilities," Harrison told reporters after last Sunday’s loss to Houston. "It's not the scheme, it's not other BS; it's each man doing his job, and, right now, every man is not doing his job, period."

Lost in all of this mess is the fact that the Steelers do own the No. 2 defense in the league right now. The stop unit will look to step up against the Titans, who just happen to own the best scoring defense in the league (14 points per game).

Pick: Under

Last week’s record: 1-2
Season record to date: 7-5

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33125 Followers:38
10/07/2011 11:01 PM

Week 5 Preview: Jets at Patriots


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -9, Total: 49.5

Bitter AFC East foes rekindle their strong dislike for one another when the Jets travel to Foxboro to clash with the Patriots on Sunday afternoon.

Last January the Jets halted the momentum of Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. Tom Brady’s production came almost exclusively in garbage time in the 28-21 playoff loss, and it was just 41 days after the Patriots had embarrassed the Jets on Monday Night Football, 45-3. This year, the Jets have been shaky on defense while Brady is hitting on all cylinders. However, even with its o-line issues, New York should move the ball against a Patriots defense that can’t create pressure and will be without its best player (LB Jerod Mayo). This might come down to whether Rex Ryan and the Jets have anything new they can throw at Brady, but these teams are much more even than the spread would indicate, with the Jets going 4-2 (SU and ATS) in the past six meetings. The pick here is NEW YORK to keep this game close enough to cover.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also likes the Jets as the play.

Play On - Any team (N.Y. JETS) - after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after a win by 10 or more points. (37-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.5%, +23.8 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets provide a four-star trend expecting this game to finish OVER the total.

N.Y. JETS are 11-1 OVER (91.7%, +9.9 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY JETS 26.0, OPPONENT 22.1 - (Rating = 4*).

Mark Sanchez hasn’t usually played well in this rivalry (5 TD, 7 INT in regular season), but he did throw three touchdowns and no picks in the playoff upset last year. However, Sanchez is coming off a brutal performance in Baltimore, where he completed just 11-of-35 passes for 119 yards (3.4 YPA), 0 TD and 1 INT. Prior to last week’s debacle, Sanchez was averaging 295 passing YPG with six touchdowns and four picks. The Jets’ inability to rush the football has been truly baffling. They ranked fourth in the NFL with 148 rushing YPG last season, but are currently third-worst in the league with 71 rushing YPG and 3.1 yards per carry. The absence of C Nick Mangold (ankle) is a big reason for the decline, but he could return to action on Sunday. WR Plaxico Burress (elbow) is the other main offensive player that is questionable due to injury. The defense has also been terrible against the run, allowing the sixth-most rushing yards in the NFL (131 YPG). On the positive side, the passing defense has been stellar, ranking second in the league with 180 passing YPG allowed.

Tom Brady is 13-5 all-time against the Jets during the regular season, with 219 passing YPG, 22 TD and 9 INT in these meetings. Although Brady has an uncharacteristic five interceptions this year, he has also thrown for 1,553 yards (388 YPG) and 13 touchdowns in four games. Wes Welker continues to get open at will, with an NFL-best 40 catches for 616 yards. The Patriots made a huge commitment to the run last week, and it paid off big-time. They racked up 183 yards on 30 carries (6.1 YPC) and now rank ninth in the league in rushing (123 YPG). In addition to having its best defensive player, Mayo, out for six weeks with a sprained MCL, New England could also be without two key players on offense. TE Aaron Hernandez is questionable to return to the lineup because of a knee injury, and RB Danny Woodhead has also missed practice time this week with an ankle injury.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33125 Followers:38
10/07/2011 11:04 PM

Week 5 Preview: Bears at Lions


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -5, Total: 48

Despite trailing by 20+ points in their past two games, the Lions seek their ninth straight victory when they host Chicago in the first Monday Night Football game held in Detroit in more than 10 years (Oct. 8, 2001).

The Bears have a six-game SU winning streak against the Lions (scoring 31.5 PPG in those contests), though this could be the year surprisingly unbeaten Detroit finally breaks through. The Bears continue to have issues across the offensive line, both run blocking and pass protection, and Detroit’s front four is the strength of its defense. The teams played two tight games a year ago, with the Bears pulling out a 24-17 win in Detroit when the Lions were starting third-string QB Drew Stanton in December, and in September a controversial overturn of a Calvin Johnson touchdown sealed a 19-14 win for the Bears in Chicago. The Bears allowed 543 yards to Carolina last week and are on a three-game ATS losing skid. The Lions are 15-3-2 ATS (83%) in the past two seasons. That includes an 8-1 ATS mark at home, and the rowdy fans at Ford Field will be a major reason DETROIT wins and covers on Monday night.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Lions.

DETROIT is 13-2 ATS (86.7%, +10.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 23.9, OPPONENT 19.9 - (Rating = 3*).

Bears RB Matt Forte gained a whopping 205 yards on 25 carries in Sunday’s win over the Panthers, joining Walter Payton and Gale Sayers as the only Chicago RBs to rush for 200 yards in a game. Forte has had great success against Detroit in six career meetings, racking up 757 total yards and six touchdowns. However, the offensive line, already without star OT Gabe Carimi (knee), has another key injury as C Chris Spencer has a broken right hand and is questionable for Monday’s game. QB Jay Cutler has already been sacked 15 times this year, but if he can get time to throw, he’s had past success against Detroit’s defense. In five career games against the Lions, he has thrown for 1,043 yards, 9 TD and only one interception. Two other injuries of concern are WR Earl Bennett (chest), who is expected to miss the next two weeks, and the status of S Chris Harris is uncertain after missing the past three games with a hamstring injury. Chicago ranks 29th against the pass (302 YPG) and 23rd in run defense (124 YPG) this season.

The Lions win streak nearly ended last week as they trailed Dallas 27-3 in the second half. Two interceptions returned for Detroit touchdowns plus a pair of fourth-quarter TD passes from Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson fueled the improbable comeback. Johnson, who leads the league with eight TD, has been limited in practice this week with an ankle injury, but he’s expected to start on Monday. Stafford is having a huge season, averaging 304 passing YPG with 11 TD and 3 INT. These numbers are even more remarkable considering the team’s lack of success running the football. The Lions have the fourth-worst ground game in the league (75 YPG) as top rusher Jahvid Best is averaging 3.2 yards per carry. However, Best rushed for 65 yards on just nine attempts (7.2 YPC) the last time he faced Chicago.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33125 Followers:38
10/07/2011 11:06 PM

Week 5 Preview: Buccaneers at 49ers



Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -3, Total: 41.5

The 49ers are feeling good about themselves after an upset win in Philadelphia, but they have another tough challenge with the Buccaneers bringing a three-game win streak to the City by the Bay on Sunday.

San Francisco hopes its new identity under head coach Jim Harbaugh leads to a better performance than it had against the Bucs at home last year, a 21-0 loss last November. The road has been good to Tampa under Raheem Morris—the Bucs are 13-3-1 ATS in road games under Morris including 9-2 SU and 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 away from home. After the Vikings gashed Tampa Bay for 186 yards in Week 2, the defense has responded by holding the Falcons and Colts to a combined 92 rushing yards on 33 carries (2.8 YPC). The pick here is underdog TAMPA BAY to get the road win.

This FoxSheets trend also supports taking the Buccaneers.

Play Against - Home favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. (54-24 since 1983.) (69.2%, +27.6 units. Rating = 2*).

RB LeGarrette Blount has been huge for the Bucs during their winning streak, rushing for 279 yards and three scores in the three games. QB Josh Freeman has thrown for just 3 TD and 4 INT this year, but he’s completed 67% of his passes for 242 passing YPG. Second-year WR Mike Williams was expected to lead this team in receiving again after 964 yards and 11 TD in a brilliant rookie season, but he has done very little in 2011, catching just 15 passes for 155 yards and one touchdown.

In last year’s meeting, the 49ers only possessed the ball for 23:36 and were limited to 189 total yards, while surrendering 162 rushing yards to Tampa Bay. This season’s version of San Francisco is still having trouble moving the football, ranking fifth-worst in the league in total offense (271 YPG). Despite the lack of yardage, QB Alex Smith is putting up decent numbers. He has completed 67% of his passes for 199 YPG, 4 TD and only one interception. RB Frank Gore had an inspired effort in last week’s win in Philly, rushing for 127 yards and a touchdown on just 15 carries (8.5 YPC) despite battling an ankle injury. He has not had much success in three career games against Tampa though, carrying the ball 43 times for 152 yards (3.5 YPC). The team is 3-1 because of its special teams and defense, which ranks fourth in the league in rushing (74 YPG allowed).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33125 Followers:38
10/07/2011 11:08 PM

Week 5 Preview: Packers at Falcons


Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -5.5, Total: 53.5

Green Bay makes its third visit to Atlanta in 11 months when it faces a Falcons squad eager to pay the Packers back after last season’s brutal home playoff loss.

Atlanta got the better of Green Bay last November thanks to two pivotal fourth downs that went the Falcons way, but this game is more likely to resemble the 48-21 divisional playoff blowout they suffered at the hands of the Packers last January. Green Bay outgained Atlanta 442-194 in that resounding victory. The Falcons struggled to barely beat Seattle in Week 4, and were handled by Chicago and Tampa Bay earlier this year. The Packers, meanwhile, have looked just as unstoppable as they were in the 2010 postseason. There’s little reason to think Atlanta can handle a Packers offense that’s averaging an NFL-best 37.0 PPG and 429.3 yards of offense, which ranks fifth in the league. The pick here is GREEN BAY to win its 11th straight game on Sunday night.

This four-star FoxSheets trend also likes the Packers as the play.

Mike McCarthy is 16-3 ATS (84.2%, +12.7 Units) off a non-conference game as the coach of GREEN BAY. The average score was GREEN BAY 28.7, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 4*).

Aaron Rodgers is having an amazing season so far. He scored six touchdowns (four passing, two rushing) in last week’s win over Denver and has now completed 73% of his throws for 331 YPG, 12 TD and just two interceptions. In the big playoff win at Atlanta last year, Rodgers was nearly flawless, completing 31-of-36 passes for 366 yards and three touchdowns. WR Greg Jennings continues to be the go-to receiver for Rodgers, with 16 catches for 222 yards and one touchdown in his past two contests. Jennings also smoked Atlanta last year with 13 grabs for 220 yards in the pair of meetings. The Packers have a couple of major injury concerns as LB Clay Matthews is questionable with a quadriceps ailment and RB Ryan Grant is also questionable with a bruised kidney, but he has been practicing with the team this week.

Atlanta almost squandered a 27-7 lead in the second half to Seattle, but was able to eke out a 30-28 win, dropping the Falcons to 1-3 ATS this season. They should also be able to establish an aerial attack on Sunday night, as the Packers have the second-worst pass defense in the league, allowing 336 YPG. Atlanta ranks 11th in the NFL in passing offense, led by QB Matt Ryan averaging 284 YPG with 6 TD and 4 INT this year. He threw 17 passes to rookie Julio Jones last week, completing 11 of those throws for 127 yards. Top WR Roddy White has dropped an NFL-most six passes this year, as he continues to be hampered by a bruised thigh. RB Michael Turner will try to keep the Packers pass rush at bay. Turner was held to 39 yards on 10 carries in the playoff loss, but gained 231 yards on 49 carries (4.7 YPC) with two scores in his previous two meetings with Green Bay. For the Falcons to slow down Rodgers, they need to find a more consistent pass rush than the one that has just five sacks on the season. The lack of pressure on opposing QBs is a big reason why the team ranks 24th in pass defense (276 YPG).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33125 Followers:38
10/07/2011 11:10 PM

Play On - Road teams (SEATTLE) slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games
59-26 over the last 10 seasons. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )

Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (SAN FRANCISCO) good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points
219-66 since 1997. ( 76.8% | 0.0 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | 0.0 units )

Play Over - Any team vs the the 1rst half total excellent passing team (>=265 PY/game) against an average passing defense (185-230 PY/game), after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games
41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33125 Followers:38
10/08/2011 12:05 AM

Total Talk - Week 5

October 7, 2011

Week 4 Recap

Let’s call it a draw!

Sixteen games were played in Week 4 and the totals finished with an 8-8 mark. Slowly but surely, gamblers are starting to see the offensive fireworks temper and most would expect that trend to continue as the season progresses. After four weeks, the ‘over’ stands at 35-26-3 (57%).


Due to the large amount of high-scoring games through the first quarter of the season, it’s been very noticeable to see the sportsbooks adjust. Each week we’ve touched on the decreasing number of totals listed under 40 points and when you delve into these specific contests, you can see that the numbers still aren’t right. Through 64 games, gamblers have seen 13 games with a closing total of 39 ½ points or less. In those contests, the ‘over’ owns an eye opening 10-3 (77%) mark.

Totals Under 40 Points (2011 season)
Week 1 Total Result Betting Notes
Pittsburgh 7 Baltimore 35 OVER 37 28 at Half, Cashed in 3rd
Buffalo 41 Kansas City 7 OVER 39 Cashed before the 4th
Cincinnati 27 Cleveland 17 OVER 36.5 17-13 late, but 2 late TDs helped
Jacksonville 16 Tennessee 14 UNDER 38 10-0 at the break, never in doubt!
Arizona 28 Carolina 21 OVER 37.5 Good pace, TDs instead of FGs helped
San Francisco 33 Seattle 17 OVER 38 Thanks to Tedd Ginn's heroics
Week 2 Total Result Betting Notes
New York Jets 32 Jacksonville 3 UNDER 38 Jags had one chance to score late, but no dice
Tennessee 26 Baltimore 13 OVER 38.5 Up 23-13, Titans kick a FG with 27 ticks left???
Cleveland 27 Indianapolis 19 OVER 39 17 points in final four minutes was comical
Week 3 Total Result Betting Notes
San Francisco 13 Cincinnati 8 UNDER 38.5 U-G-L-Y....UGLY
Pittsburgh 23 Indianapolis 20 OVER 39.5 2 "D" TDs helped a lot!
Week 4 Total Result Betting Notes
Tennessee 31 Cleveland 13 OVER 37.5 Hit early in the 4th
Atlanta 30 Seattle 28 OVER 39.5 31 at half, easy ticket cashed in 3rd

As noted in the above table, some of the outcomes were fortunate but that’s the way the ball bounces sometimes. We have three games sitting under 40 points in Week 5 and these particular matchups could be tough to argue for the ‘over’.

Kansas City at Indianapolis: This number is hovering around 38 points and when you look at the offensive units, it should probably be lower. The Chiefs (12.3 PPG) and Colts (15.8 PPG) have both been inconsistent this season. However, Kansas City (31.5 PPG) and Indianapolis (27 PPG) have major flaws with their defense. This pair met last year at the same venue, with Peyton Manning too, and the Colts won 19-9.

Cincinnati at Jacksonville: Even though this year has been dominated by ‘over’ tickets, the Jaguars are the only club to not see one. The ‘under’ has cashed in all of Jacksonville’s four games, specifically due to a horrendous offense, which is ranked last in points per game (9.3) and second to last in yards per game (264). The Bengals saw their first two games go ‘over’ but those could’ve easily been ‘under’ winners. Sure enough, Cincinnati has seen its last two go ‘under’ the number. Keep in mind that this game will pit two rookie quarterbacks against one another in Gabbert and Dalton. Barring defensive or special team scores, it’s tough to see this game going above the total of 36 ½-points. On a side note, don’t fall into the trap of telling yourself that if each team gets to 17, then you got a winner. I’m a victim of that rationalization, and I’m sure some of you are too.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh: This game opened at 41 and has dipped to 39 ½ points. It will be interesting to see if settles below the 40-point plateau. The Titans have been a nice surprise this season, especially the play of veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. What’s the reason behind his surge in Nashville? Well, he’s standing up. I’ve always said that if you give any pro QB time, he’ll dice up any secondary and he’s only been sacked four times in four games. What may lead you to an ‘under’ bet here is Pitt’s offense, which has a total of 11 offensive scores (6 TDs) this season. That’s not good, but fortunately the Steelers’ defense has only surrendered 277 yards per game, which is ranked second. These two teams have met three seasons and a row, and the ‘under’ has gone 2-1, with scores of 13-10 and 19-11 in the most recent encounters.

System Plays

Readers following this column over the years on a regular basis are well aware of the “Total Tip – Three Straight on the Road” system. The angle calls for gamblers to play the ‘over’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the road. The results went 4-3 last year, improving the overall record to 26-11-2 (70%) over the last seven seasons. We have seven instances set up for this year’s regular season, with the first one occurring on Sunday between the Patriots and Jets. The other six are listed below:

Week 6 - New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Week 9 – Indianapolis at Tennessee
Week 12 – Arizona at St. Louis, Buffalo at N.Y. Jets
Week 13 – Carolina at Tampa Bay
Week 16 – Cleveland at Baltimore

Under the Lights

After four weeks of primetime games, the ‘over’ owns an 8-1-1 record. We thought this trend would slow down in Week 5 considering the Ravens-Jets matchup on SNF had two great defensive units. What we didn’t know is that aforementioned units would put up a combined 35 points from defense and special team scores. You can’t handicap those particular plays but you can certainly remember them if they meet again in the playoffs. The MNF affair watched Tampa Bay outlast Indianapolis, 24-17. Most books closed the total at 40 and again, two long touchdowns from Colts wide receiver Pierre Garcon was the difference.

Two more games this week and if you’re riding the ‘over’ wave, you’re certainly going to earn it this week with some inflated numbers.

Green Bay at Atlanta: Big revenge game here as the Packers ripped the Falcons 48-21 at the Georgia Dome in the playoffs last season. If you’re going to play ‘under’ here, you need Green Bay to get FGs instead of TDs, which is asking a lot. The Packers have 19 touchdowns (17 offensive) this season and only five field goals. Gamblers have seen four totals listed above 50 points this season and the ‘over’ has gone 3-1, with last week’s matchup between the Patriots and Raiders (50 points, 55.5 O/U) going below the number.

Chicago at Detroit: The Lions have seen all four of their games go ‘over’ the total. Chicago could easily be 4-0 to the ‘over’ too but it stands at 2-2. Four of the last five in this series has gone ‘over’ but they haven’t seen a total higher than 45 ½, and this week’s number is hovering between 47 and 48 points. Make a note that Detroit has only played one home game (KC, 48-3), and Chicago has only played one road game (NO, 13-30). To put it simply, the Lions looked good defensively at home albeit versus the Chiefs and the Bears struggled at the Superdome against the Saints.

Fearless Predictions

Finally, we hit a team total (1-2), our first winner on the season and it was umm, err…very lucky. Thanks Buffalo for scoring just 3 points in the second-half. We got some luck in our ‘over’ bet too with the Giants and Cardinals putting up 42 points in the final 30 minutes. And our best ‘under’ bet was atrocious, as the Bears and Panthers combined for 63 points, 44 in the first half too. The Three-Team Teaser lost as well, so the deficit was $10. On the season, we’re down 50 cents.

As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Arizona-Minnesota 45

Best Under: Cincinnati-Jacksonville 37

Best Team Total: Over Minnesota 23.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 36 Arizona-Minnesota
Under 46 Cincinnati-Jacksonville
Under 53 Seattle-N.Y. Giants

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33125 Followers:38
10/08/2011 12:07 AM

Las Vegas Money Moves

October 7, 2011

One of the most curious lines of the week is the Steelers laying three points at home against the Titans. The Las Vegas Hilton had the Steelers as 8-point favorites for this game before the Week 4 games played. After the Titans rolled to an easy win at Cleveland and the Steelers sluggish loss at Houston, that number was sure to drop. Steelers' quarterback Ben Roethlisberger‘s status remained unclear keeping the game off most sports books' boards until Tuesday or Wednesday.

"We opened the game at minus-3 on Wednesday," said MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood. “We expect Big Ben to play, but not at his full capabilities because of his toe injury which takes a point or two away from where it might have been. Then you have to factor in the Steelers' poor offensive-line play and Rashard Mendenhall not practicing all week compounded with this team's overall struggles already this season; three is the right number.”

The number has to be correct because no one is jumping in on either side.

“So far we have had very little action on the game,” said Rood. “I think there’s Titans money to be had at either 4 of 3 ½ flat, but we‘ll see where the money takes us as we get closer to game day.”

While the Steelers (2-2) have looked very beatable on the road, they have had only one home game. In that game, they pounded the hapless Seahawks, 24-0.

The Steelers have traditionally been a very public team, but have let down their supporters against the spread in three of their four games thus far.

The regular cast of public favorites are being bet heavy already this week with small money.

"A popular combination this week is the Packers, Patriots and Saints," said Rood.

The three of those teams have combined to go 9-3 ATS, which obviously endears them to the public.

The Patriots were projected to be an 8 ½-point favorite before Week 4 games played out. Following their beatdown of the Raiders and the Jets horrendous Sunday night effort, they were opened up at -9 ½. Some Jets money was found and by Friday morning the game was back to -8 ½.

The Jets have won and covered three of their last five meetings, including a big one last year in the playoffs. However, this current Jets squad looks nothing like that playoff team, offensively or defensively. The hope for Jets bettors is that the true hatred in the rivalry brings out the best in them.

The Buccaneers have been an impressive road team over their last eight -- covering them all -- and the 49ers opened a short 1-point favorite. Sharp bettors have been much more impressed with the 49ers and have pushed the game to -3 (EV).

The Chargers opened as 5-point favorites for their road game at Denver and the line currently sits at -4. The total has also dropped in this game from 47 ½ to 46.

The Packers are 6-point road favorites at Atlanta this Sunday night. They were initially -3 before Sunday’s games and then re-opened Monday at -4 ½. It wasn’t too long before the sports books crossed the dead numbers and went to -6. So far, the public doesn’t care what the number is, it’s all Packers despite the Falcons being a completely different team at home than on the road.

The troubled Eagles opened as 2 ½-point favorites at Buffalo, were bet against to -2 and then bet on to where it now sits at -3 (EV). The public is mixed on this game giving the books great two-way action. It’s kind of a do-or-die situation for the Eagles and their season, one that had so many high hopes.

The Raiders have been a trendy choice among the Public for their game at Houston creating two-way action and keeping the home team as 6-point favorites. Both teams are 3-1 ATS. The Sharps haven’t shown their hand in this one, but the six points would seem attractive to take. Lucky’s sports books was the first to drop to -5 ½ Friday afternoon.

Despite Seattle’s 1-10 ATS road record on grass over their last 11, the Giants remain 9 ½-point favorites. The total has risen from 41 ½ to 43 ½.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33125 Followers:38
10/08/2011 12:12 AM

Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest Week 4 Update

Once again, the Dallas Cowboys were at the forefront of a key matchup in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest. Only this time, instead of a gutsy Tony Romo comeback to help Dallas backers, the Cowboys quarterback played a major role in coughing up a lead to leave Big D bettors on the losing end.

Week 4 of the NFL season saw the Detroit Lions trek into Dallas as 1-point underdogs in a key NFC matchup. An even 100 players in the LV Hilton SuperContest laid the single point on the Cowboys while 111 players backed the Lions.

Detroit bettors and fans surely thought the Lions' perfect season was coming to an end when Romo's third TD pass gave Dallas a 27-3 lead early in the third quarter. But Detroit returned two Romo interceptions for scores and Matthew Stafford directed the Lions offense to a 17-0 fourth-quarter advantage for the eventual 34-30 upset.

Another big draw for Week 4 contest entries was the New England Patriots going west to take on the Oakland Raiders. The Patriots -4 drew the interest of 162 players with 45 taking the underdog Raiders.

A pair of turnovers and nine penalties doomed the Black & Silver, with Tom Brady and the Pats walking away 31-19 victors.

Two games that went out as picks on the NFL odds also ranked in the heavy-action column for the SuperContest. The Washington Redskins used their ground game to post a 17-10 win at the St. Louis Rams, with 124 contest entries backing the 'Skins compared to 70 Rams backers.

Out in the desert, the Arizona Cardinals held a 20-10 lead over the New York Giants entering the fourth quarter before Eli Manning and the G-Men went to work. Manning tossed two scores in the game's final four minutes to lead New York to a 31-27 triumph.

The game was very evenly picked in the LV Hilton SuperContest, with 97 on the winning Giants and 94 backing the Cardinals.

New Orleans (-6½) produced the most winners in the contest for Week 4. The Saints used three John Kasay field goals in the second half, while blanking the woeful Jacksonville Jaguars offense the final 30 minutes, to grab the cover with a 23-10 win.

Here are the latest standings in the LV Hilton SuperContest:

Sans Souci 16.5

samswins.com2 15.0
15-5-0 14.5

Pagermager 14.5

Sons of Ditka 14.5

Robert C Best 14.5

Eight with 14.0

14 with 13.5

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: