cnotes Posts:33421 Followers:38
10/06/2011 06:34 PM


Week 6

College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 6


California Golden Bears at Oregon Ducks (-23.5, 62)

Why Cal will cover: The Bears have put up points (39.5 ppg, 12th) and can stuff the run. They can keep up offensively, as long as the defense makes a few stops.

Why Oregon will cover: The Ducks have the nation’s most explosive offense, averaging 52 ppg. Cal’s defense hasn’t faced anything like Oregon. The Ducks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 following bye weeks.

Points: The over is 3-1 in both teams’ games, and there’s not enough defense to think this will be a low-scoring affair.


Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs (+20.5, 58.5)

Why Boise State will cover: The Broncos’ points differential is 20 ppg. Boise State is 2-0 ATS on the road, busting the likes of Georgia and Toledo.

Why Fresno State will cover: The Bulldogs have faced Cal, Nebraska and Ole Miss, so they’re battle-ready. They haven’t lost by more than 15 yet.

Points: The under is 8-1-1 in BSU’s last 10 games, but the over is 4-1 for Fresno this season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33421 Followers:38
10/06/2011 06:35 PM


Thursday, October 6

California at Oregon: What bettors need to know

California Golden Bears at Oregon Ducks (-23.5, 64)

THE STORY: Since falling to now-No. 2 LSU in the season-opener and dropping to No. 14 in the rankings, Oregon has slowly climbed its way back into the Top 10 with three consecutive blowout victories. The ninth-ranked Ducks have scored at least 56 points in wins over Nevada, Missouri State and Arizona and now rank first in the nation in scoring offense at 52 points per game. Oregon ranked first in that category last year, too, but California held the Ducks to season lows in points, total yards and first downs in a 15-13 Oregon victory.

California coach Jeff Tedford was Oregon’s offensive coordinator for four seasons before taking over the Golden Bears’ program in 2002. Cal leads the all-time series 39-32-2, but Oregon has won 10 of the past 15 meetings.


LINE MOVES: Oregon opened as high as -24 and had been bet down slightly at some books. The total opened as low as 63 and was bet up to 64.5 before coming back down half a point.

WEATHER: There is a 16 percent chance of rain for Pleasant Hill Thursday. Game-time temperatures will dip into the high 40s.

ABOUT CALIFORNIA (3-1, 0-1 Pac-12, 2-2 ATS): As high-powered as Oregon is offensively, the Bears haven’t been bad themselves, ranking 15th in the country with 39.5 points per game. After starting the season 3-0, Cal missed a chance at its first 4-0 start since 2007 with a 31-23 loss at Washington last week. The Bears rank ninth nationally with only 78.3 rushing yards allowed per game, but they haven’t faced a rushing offense that currently is higher than 58th in the country, so they’re in for quite a challenge trying to stop LaMichael James and Oregon’s spread-option attack. Cal quarterback Zach Maynard — a transfer from Buffalo — has 10 passing touchdowns already after throwing for just 18 in his final season with the Bulls.

ABOUT OREGON (3-1, 1-0 Pac-12, 2-2 ATS): The Ducks have been flat-out dominate at Autzen Stadium since 2008, averaging 49.5 points per game in an 18-game home winning streak. Their last home loss was a 37-32 setback against Boise State on Sept. 20, 2008. James — the nation’s leading rusher in 2010 — claimed the top spot again this week after a record-setting 288-yard effort at Arizona last weekend. Quarterback Darron Thomas threw two touchdowns in the Ducks’ 56-31 win against the Wildcats, making it 17 consecutive games he’s thrown for at least one score. Oregon has won 13 straight conference games since a loss at Stanford in November 2009.


1. Oregon leads the nation with only one sack allowed through four games, while Cal’s defense is ninth nationally with 3.25 sacks per game.

2. Eight of the last 11 games in this series have been decided by 10 points or less.

3. This is the first of three weeknight games this season for Cal, which played only three total weeknight games in Tedford’s first nine years in Berkeley.


* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Oregon.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Golden Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

PREDICTION: Oregon 56, California 24 -- The Ducks offense is rolling again, and they’ve been unstoppable at Autzen Stadium, so the Bears could be in for a long night.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33421 Followers:38
10/06/2011 06:36 PM


Week 6

California at Oregon
The Ducks look to build on their 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 games following a bye week. Oregon is the pick (-23 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 28 1/2. Dunkel Pick: California (-23 1/2). Here are all of this week's lined games.


Game 301-302: California at Oregon (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 89.401; Oregon 117.674
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 28 1/2; 72
Vegas Line: Oregon by 23 1/2; 63
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-23 1/2); Over

Game 303-304: Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 68.244; Middle Tennessee State 73.186
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 5; 50
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 11 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (+11 1/2); Under


Game 305-306: Boise State at Fresno State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 111.034; Fresno State 82.900
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 28; 65
Vegas Line: Boise State by 20 1/2; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-20 1/2); Over

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33421 Followers:38
10/06/2011 06:37 PM

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Thursday's games
Underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in four of Cal's last five visits to Eugene, as Bears lost four of five, but with only one loss by more than eight points. Cal allowed 33-31 points in splitting first two road games; they're 4-8 in last dozen games as a road underdog. Oregon is 9-2-1 as home fave under Kelly- they scored 69-56 points in last two games vs I-A foes since loss to LSU (40-27) in Dallas. Home teams are 3-7 vs spread in Pac-10 tilts.

Middle Tennessee is 1-3, with only win 38-31 over awful 1-4 Memphis; they allowed 39.3 ppg in last three games, are 2-4 in their last six games as home favorite. Western Kentucky is 5-3 in last eight games as a road underdog; they're 0-4 already, with 44-16 loss to I-AA Indiana State and a minus-8 turnover ratio. Middle Tennessee won last three series games, covering two of last three. All four MTSU games went over the total.

Friday's game
Boise State won nine of last ten games vs Fresno State, winning last five, last three by average score of 54-15; favorites covered last nine in series, but this is non-league game now, with Boise off to MWC. Bulldogs lost 51-0 in Boise LY; Boise won last two visits here, 51-34/34-21. Fresno isn't very good on defense anymore, allowing 36-42-38 points in losses this year, by 15-13-10 points. Even North Dakota scored 22 points on them, and they're I-AA. Broncos are 4-0, winning road games at Toledo (40-15) and over Georgia (35-21) in Atlanta.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/06/2011 10:55 PM

    Ohio State Travels To Face Nebraska Cornhuskers

    The Ohio State Buckeyes (3-2) and Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-1) will face off as Big Ten Conference rivals for the first time Saturday night at Memorial Stadium. Kickoff from Lincoln, NE, is scheduled for 8:00 (ET) and the game will be nationally televised on ABC.

    Nebraska enters Week 6 of the college football season as the No. 23 team in the Don Best Linemakers Poll, while the betting odds have placed the former Big 12 school as 11-point home favorites. The total has fallen two points to its current position of 44.

    Both teams will be looking to bounce back from losses suffered last week, as Ohio State was handed a 10-7 defeat by the Michigan State Spartans as 3-point home favorites while Nebraska suffered a 48-17 blowout loss at the hands of the Wisconsin Badgers as 9 ½-point road underdogs.

    Ohio State has won both previous meetings in this series and will be making its first trip to Lincoln. The Buckeyes have registered an impressive 61-32-5 record in conference road openers since joining the Big Ten in 1913.

    Many around the program were expecting the return of running back Dan Herron and wide receiver DeVier Posey from five-game suspensions that were handed down during the offseason, but those have been extended at least one more game. That’s bad news for an offense that has scored just 13 combined points in losses to Miami-FL and Michigan State.

    The stop unit will need to be at its best in order to pull off the upset, ranking third in the conference against the run and fourth in total defense.

    Bettors will find that the Buckeyes are 3-1 ATS as an underdog the last two-plus seasons and all of those games went under the total.

    Nebraska will play its first-ever home game as a member of the conference, making the move from the Big 12 during the offseason. Saturday’s game will be the fifth game in school history involving two teams with 800 all-time victories.

    Not a lot of things went right in Madison last week, including the offense committing three turnovers that Wisconsin turned into 21 points. The team also had a season-high nine penalties for 80 yards, entering the contest averaging just 4.5 flags a contest.

    Cornhuskers quarterback Taylor Martinez will need to play well or the squad will fall to 0-4 ATS on the year as a double-digit home favorite. He threw three interceptions last week and has completed just 50.5 percent of his passes through five games.

    Strangely enough, Nebraska scheduled its 101st Homecoming Game for this week, boasting a 74-22-4 record, including a 67-16-3 mark when playing against conference foes.

    It’s definitely strange line movement in this marquee matchup due to the Cornhuskers being 1-10-1 ATS when laying 10 ½-points or more at home.

    Total bettors will find that the ‘under’ is 14-6 in the last 20 games inside this venue.

    Weather forecasts are calling for game-time temperatures in the mid-60s and a 60 percent chance of rain showers throughout the game.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/06/2011 10:59 PM

    College Football Picks For Saturday October 8

    Here’s the lineup (All Times Eastern):

    307 Oklahoma vs 308 Texas – 12:00 p.m.

    309 Illinois vs 310 Indiana – 2:30 p.m.

    311 Vanderbilt vs 312 Alabama – 7:00 p.m.

    313 Boston College vs 314 Clemson – 3:00 p.m.

    315 Connecticut vs 316 West Virginia – 12:00 p.m.

    317 Mississippi State vs 318 UAB – 12:00 p.m.

    319 Iowa vs 320 Penn State – 3:30 p.m.

    321 Pittsburgh U vs 322 Rutgers – 3:30 p.m.

    323 Minnesota U vs 324 Purdue – 12:00 p.m.

    325 Louisville vs 326 North Carolina – 12:00 p.m.

    327 Central Michigan vs 328 NC State – 3:30 p.m.

    329 Memphis vs 330 Rice – 12:30 p.m.

    331 Army vs 332 Miami Ohio – 1:00 p.m.

    333 Bowling Green vs 334 Western Michigan – 2:00 p.m.

    335 Temple vs 336 Ball State – 2:00 p.m.

    337 Arizona State vs 338 Utah – 3:30 p.m.

    339 San Jose State vs 340 BYU – 10:15 p.m.

    341 Eastern Michigan vs 342 Toledo – 3:00 p.m.

    343 Ohio vs 344 Buffalo U – 3:30 p.m.

    345 Kent State vs 346 No Illinois – 3:30 p.m.

    347 Auburn vs 348 Arkansas – 7:00 p.m.

    349 Maryland vs 350 Georgia Tech – 12:00 p.m.

    351 Colorado vs 352 Standford – 7:30 p.m.

    353 Georgia vs 354 Tennessee U – 7:00 p.m.

    355 Miami Florida vs 356 Virginia Tech – 3:30 p.m.

    357 Air Force vs 358 Notre Dame – 3:30 p.m.

    359 Southern Miss vs 360 Navy – 3:30 p.m.

    361 UNLV vs 362 Nevada – 7:00 p.m.

    363 Marshall vs 364 Central Florida – 7:00 p.m.

    365 Louisiana Tech vs 366 Idaho – 5:00 p.m.

    367 Arizona U vs 368 Oregon State – 3:30 p.m.

    369 Kansas vs 370 Oklahoma State – 3:30 p.m.

    371 Michigan vs 372 Northwestern – 7:00 p.m.

    373 East Carolina vs Houston U – 7:00 p.m.

    375 Iowa State vs 376 Baylor – 7:00 p.m.

    377 Kentucky vs 378 South Carolina – 12:20 p.m.

    379 Florida State vs 380 Wake Forest – 12:30 p.m.

    381 Texas A&M vs 382 Texas Tech – 7:00 p.m.

    383 Missouri vs 384 Kansas State – 3:30 p.m.

    385 Syracuse vs 386 Tulane – 8:00 p.m.

    387 Wyoming vs 388 Utah State – 8:00 p.m.

    389 Florida vs 390 LSU – 3:30 p.m.

    391 Ohio State vs 392 Nebraska – 8:00 p.m.

    393 Washington State vs 394 UCLA – 10:30 p.m.

    395 TCU vs 396 San Diego State – 10:30 p.m.

    397 Florida INTL vs 398 Akron – 2:00 p.m.

    399 Troy vs 400 UL Lafayette – 7:00 p.m.

    401 Arkansas State vs 402 UL Monroe – 7:00 p.m.

    403 Florida Atlantic vs North Texas – 7:30 p.m.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/07/2011 07:14 PM

    Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
    10/06/11 2-­2-­0 50.00% -­100 Detail
    10/01/11 55-­45-­2 55.00% +­2750 Detail
    Totals 57-­47-­2 54.81% +2650

    Friday, October 7

    Game Score Status Pick Amount

    Boise State - 9:00 PM ET Fresno State +20.5 500

    Fresno State - Under 58 500

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/07/2011 10:09 PM


    Game 307-308: Oklahoma vs. Texas (12:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 117.033; Texas 101.176
    Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 16; 52
    Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 9 1/2; 56 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-9 1/2); Under

    Game 309-310: Illinois at Indiana (2:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 92.149; Indiana 79.813
    Dunkel Line: Illinois by 12 1/2; 57
    Vegas Line: Illinois by 14; 52 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+14); Over

    Game 311-312: Vanderbilt at Alabama (7:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 87.966; Alabama 120.632
    Dunkel Line: Alabama by 32 1/2; 37
    Vegas Line: Alabama by 28 1/2; 41 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-28 1/2); Under

    Game 313-314: Boston College at Clemson (3:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 81.970; Clemson 109.157
    Dunkel Line: Clemson by 27; 59
    Vegas Line: Clemson by 21; 55 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-21); Over

    Game 315-316: Connecticut at West Virginia (12:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 83.924; West Virginia 100.203
    Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 16 1/2; 53
    Vegas Line: West Virginia by 20; 55
    Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+20); Under

    Game 317-318: Mississippi State at UAB (12:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 93.196; UAB 68.785
    Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 24 1/2; 58
    Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 16 1/2; 53 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (-16 1/2); Over

    Game 319-320: Iowa at Penn State (3:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 92.622; Penn State 94.500
    Dunkel Line: Penn State by 2; 38
    Vegas Line: Penn State by 4; 44
    Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+4); Under

    Game 321-322: Pittsburgh at Rutgers (3:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 89.827; Rutgers 89.262
    Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 48
    Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7; 53
    Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+7); Under

    Game 323-324: Minnesota at Purdue (12:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 68.961; Purdue 83.725
    Dunkel Line: Purdue by 15; 53
    Vegas Line: Purdue by 10; 48 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-10); Over

    Game 325-326: Louisville at North Carolina (12:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 79.069; North Carolina 96.069
    Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 17; 53
    Vegas Line: North Carolina by 14; 48
    Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-14); Over

    Game 327-328: Central Michigan at North Carolina State (3:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 74.855; North Carolina State 84.430
    Dunkel Line: North Carolina State by 9 1/2; 52 1/2
    Vegas Line: North Carolina State by 13; 55
    Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (+13); Under

    Game 329-330: Memphis at Rice (12:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 53.117; Rice 77.802
    Dunkel Line: Rice by 24 1/2; 58
    Vegas Line: Rice by 20 1/2; 59 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Rice (-20 1/2); Under

    Game 331-332: Army at Miami (OH) (3:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Army 77.209; Miami (OH) 77.311
    Dunkel Line: Even; 49
    Vegas Line: Army by 2; 47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+2); Over

    Game 333-334: Bowling Green at Western Michigan (2:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 78.199; Western Michigan 90.561
    Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 12 1/2; 56
    Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 10; 60
    Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (-10); Under

    Game 335-336: Temple at Ball State (2:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Temple 89.636; Ball State 80.935
    Dunkel Line: Temple by 8 1/2; 54
    Vegas Line: Temple by 9 1/2; 50 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+9 1/2); Over

    Game 337-338: Arizona State at Utah (3:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 100.446; Utah 93.865
    Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 6 1/2; 55
    Vegas Line: Arizona State by 3 1/2; 48
    Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-3 1/2); Over

    Game 339-340: San Jose State at BYU (10:15 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 71.643; BYU 88.092
    Dunkel Line: BYU by 16 1/2; 44
    Vegas Line: BYU by 13; 47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: BYU (-13); Under

    Game 341-342: Eastern Michigan at Toledo (3:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 64.276; Toledo 80.916
    Dunkel Line: Toledo by 16 1/2; 59
    Vegas Line: Toledo by 21; 51 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (+21); Over

    Game 343-344: Ohio at Buffalo (3:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 84.622; Buffalo 73.507
    Dunkel Line: Ohio by 11; 49 1/2
    Vegas Line: Ohio by 8 1/2; 52
    Dunkel Pick: Ohio (-8 1/2); Under

    Game 345-346: Kent at Northern Illinois (3:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Kent 65.390; Northern Illinois 87.322
    Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 22; 57
    Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 17; 52 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (-17); Over

    Game 347-348: Auburn at Arkansas (7:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 95.031; Arkansas 103.262
    Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 8; 60
    Vegas Line: Arkansas by 10; 63 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Auburn (+10); Under

    Game 349-350: Maryland at Georgia Tech (12:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 94.217; Georgia Tech 99.121
    Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 5; 65
    Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 14 1/2; 63 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+14 1/2); Over

    Game 351-352: Colorado at Stanford (7:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 81.738; Stanford 114.153
    Dunkel Line: Stanford by 32 1/2; 56
    Vegas Line: Stanford by 29 1/2; 59
    Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-29 1/2); Under

    Game 353-354: Georgia at Tennessee (7:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 102.380; Tennessee 98.286
    Dunkel Line: Georgia by 4; 55
    Vegas Line: Pick; 57 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Georgia; Under

    Game 355-356: Miami (FL) at Virginia Tech (3:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 94.344; Virginia Tech 105.525
    Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 11; 48
    Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 7; 44 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-7); Over

    Game 357-358: Air Force at Notre Dame (3:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 89.064; Notre Dame 102.581
    Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 13 1/2; 61
    Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 16; 55
    Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+16); Over

    Game 359-360: Southern Mississippi at Navy (3:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 90.470; Navy 91.075
    Dunkel Line: Navy by 1; 53
    Vegas Line: Navy by 3; 58
    Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (+3); Under

    Game 361-362: UNLV at Nevada (4:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 66.177; Nevada 93.240
    Dunkel Line: Nevada by 27; 54 1/2
    Vegas Line: Nevada by 20 1/2; 56
    Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-20 1/2); Under

    Game 363-364: Marshall at Central Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 77.395; Central Florida 89.701
    Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 12 1/2; 47
    Vegas Line: Central Florida by 18; 43 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+18); Over

    Game 365-366: Louisiana Tech at Idaho (5:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 84.555; Idaho 71.005
    Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 13 1/2; 52
    Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 3 1/2; 55 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (-3 1/2); Under

    Game 367-368: Arizona at Oregon State (3:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 88.884; Oregon State 88.456
    Dunkel Line: Even; 62
    Vegas Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 58 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+1 1/2); Over

    Game 369-370: Kansas at Oklahoma State (3:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 75.734; Oklahoma State 104.892
    Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 29; 77
    Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 32; 72 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Kansas (+32); Over

    Game 371-372: Michigan at Northwestern (7:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 94.259; Northwestern 89.456
    Dunkel Line: Michigan by 5; 58
    Vegas Line: Michigan by 7 1/2; 59
    Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (+7 1/2); Under

    Game 373-374: East Carolina at Houston (12:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 82.284; Houston 89.195
    Dunkel Line: Houston by 7; 69
    Vegas Line: Houston by 9 1/2; 73
    Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (+9 1/2); Under

    Game 375-376: Iowa State at Baylor (7:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 84.472; Baylor 102.430
    Dunkel Line: Baylor by 18; 72
    Vegas Line: Baylor by 15; 64
    Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-15); Over

    Game 377-378: Kentucky at South Carolina (12:20 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 77.800; South Carolina 103.197
    Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 25 1/2; 41
    Vegas Line: South Carolina by 21; 43
    Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-21); Under

    Game 379-380: Florida State at Wake Forest (12:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 97.931; Wake Forest 90.084
    Dunkel Line: Florida State by 8; 56
    Vegas Line: Florida State by 10 1/2; 50
    Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (+10 1/2); Over

    Game 381-382: Texas A&M at Texas Tech (8:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 101.777; Texas Tech 91.663
    Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 10; 66
    Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 8 1/2; 70 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (-8 1/2); Under

    Game 383-384: Missouri at Kansas State (3:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 97.527; Kansas State 97.280
    Dunkel Line: Even; 59
    Vegas Line: Missouri by 3 1/2; 56
    Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (+3 1/2); Over

    Game 385-386: Syracuse at Tulane (8:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 82.606; Tulane 69.082
    Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 13 1/2; 57
    Vegas Line: Syracuse by 10; 50
    Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-10); Over

    Game 387-388: Wyoming at Utah State (9:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 77.499; Utah State 81.833
    Dunkel Line: Utah State by 4 1/2; 53
    Vegas Line: Utah State by 11 1/2; 55 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+11 1/2); Under

    Game 389-390: Florida at LSU (8:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Florida 101.014; LSU 114.812
    Dunkel Line: LSU by 14; 47
    Vegas Line: LSU by 13 1/2; 41 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: LSU (-13 1/2); Over

    Game 391-392: Ohio State at Nebraska (8:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 95.845; Nebraska 100.775
    Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 5; 42
    Vegas Line: Nebraska by 11; 44
    Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+11); Under

    Game 393-394: Washington State at UCLA (4:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 84.952; UCLA 87.219
    Dunkel Line: UCLA by 2 1/2; 66
    Vegas Line: UCLA by 4; 62 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+4); Over

    Game 395-396: TCU at San Diego State (10:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: TCU 102.535; San Diego State 91.369
    Dunkel Line: TCU by 11; 54
    Vegas Line: TCU by 3 1/2; 56 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: TCU (-3 1/2); Under

    Game 397-398: Florida International at Akron (2:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 89.305; Akron 58.939
    Dunkel Line: Florida International by 30 1/2; 58
    Vegas Line: Florida International by 19 1/2; 51 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Florida International (-19 1/2); Over

    Game 399-400: Troy at UL-Lafayette (7:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Troy 82.746; UL-Lafayette 73.998
    Dunkel Line: Troy by 8 1/2; 53
    Vegas Line: Troy by 6; 56
    Dunkel Pick: Troy (-6); Under

    Game 401-402: Arkansas State at UL-Monroe (7:00 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 79.485; UL-Monroe 74.773
    Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 4 1/2; 55
    Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 2; 53
    Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-2); Over

    Game 403-404: Florida Atlantic at North Texas (7:30 p.m. EST)
    Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 61.695; North Texas 73.609
    Dunkel Line: North Texas by 12; 47
    Vegas Line: North Texas by 3 1/2; 49
    Dunkel Pick: North Texas (-3 1/2); Under

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/07/2011 10:13 PM

    Armadillo's Write-Up

    Week 6

    Saturday's best games

    4-0 Texas steps way up in class after big win at Iowa State; Longhorns won four of last six games vs Oklahoma, with losses by 8-7; favorites are 5-2-1 vs spread in last eight series games, with Sooners 3-2 in last five games as series favorite. Oklahoma (-3.5) won 23-13 at Florida State in its only road game so far, outgaining Seminoles 310-246-- they gave up 524 yards to Missouri the next week, but won 38-28. Big 12 favorites are 2-3 vs spread in conference play.

    Iowa won eight of its last nine games against Penn State, winning four of last five visits here, all as underdogs. Lions are 1-6 vs spread as favorite in this series- they've scored 16 or less points in three of four contests vs I-A opponents, as lack of quality QB play is evident. Iowa was off last week- they lost only road game, in OT at Iowa State, then were down in next game before rallying late for unlikely 31-27 win over Pitt. Penn St has wins 14-10 vs Temple, 16-10 vs Indiana. Unimpressive, but wins.

    Auburn kept South Carolina off-balance last week with no-huddle and strong running game, pulling upset in Columbia. Underdogs are 7-3 vs spread in last ten Auburn-Arkansas games; Tigers won three of last four visits here- they thrashed Hogs 65-43 LY. Dogs won four of last five in series SU. Auburn ran ball for 572 yards in last two meetings. Hogs came back from down 35-17 at half to beat Aggies last week, after they lost at Alabama the week before, so third tough game in three weeks for them.

    Georgia gaining momentum after 0-2 start with wins over Ole Miss and Miss State last two weeks- they lost to Boise State/So. Carolina. Vols are young/improving, beating Cincinnati/Buffalo but losing SEC opener by 10 at Florida. Home side won last four Georgia-Tennessee games; Dawgs lost last two visits here, 45-19/45-14. Average total in last five series games, 58.4. Tennessee coach Dooley is son of Vince Dooley, former great Dawgs' coach.

    Virginia Tech won six of last eight games vs Miami, covering four of last five as series favorite; Hurricanes lost five of last seven visits here, with 31-7/44-14 losses in last two visits. Tech got hammered 23-3 at home by Clemson last week; since 2004, Hokies are 9-5-2 vs spread in game after a loss. Home teams are 6-3 vs spread in ACC games so far this season. Miami lost to Maryland/Kansas State, then beat shorthanded Ohio State. Tech has scored only 10 second half points in last three games.

    Air Force had huge rivalry win last week, holding off Navy in OT when they blocked PAT in OT; Falcons gave up 334 rushing yards week, 204 in earlier 35-19 loss to TCU- they're 9-7-1 in last 17 games as road dog. Air Force-Notre Dame haven't met since '07, when Falcons beat the Irish 41-24, but much has changed since then. Irish won last three games with defense allowing only 11.7 ppg. Since 2003, Notre Dame is 13-29-2 as a home favorite- they're 1-1 as home faves this season.

    Navy had 608 rushing yards in last two games, but lost two tough ones, 24-21 (+17.5) at South Carolina, 35-34 (-3) in OT to rival Air Force last week, a big rivalry game for Middies. Southern Mississippi split pair of road games, losing 26-20 (-8) at Marshall, winning 30-24 (+3) at Virginia they had 370 rushing yards vs Rice last week. C-USA toad underdogs are 8-10-1 vs spread in non-league games. Southern Miss is 6-4 as a road underdog under Fedora, after being 7-15 in previous 22 games.

    Michigan won eight of last ten games vs Northwestern, winning three in row here by 12-16-31 points; underdog covered last three series games. Wolverines won last three games overall by a combined score of 117-10 after the close win over Notre Dame, running ball for average of 353 ypg in wins by 28-21-58 points. Wildcats lost last two games 21-14/38-35 at Army/Illinois, despite being +4 in turnovers in those games. Wildcats are 12-7 vs spread in their last 19 games as a home underdog.

    Texas A&M led 20-3/35-17 at halftime of their last two games, but lost both games; now they have first true road game in Lubbock, where they lost six of last seven visits, so they have confidence issues. Aggies beat Texas Tech last two years 45-27/52-30. Since 2006, A&M covered six of last eight games as road favorite. Tech is 5-1 as a home underdog since '06- they're 4-0 this year, but giving up 34 points in each of last couple games to Nevada/Kansas, two suspect teams, is a major red flag.

    Missouri scored 41.4 ppg in winning its last five games vs Kansas State by average of 18 points- they won last two visits here, 38-12/49-32, as visitor covered last four series games. Mizzou lost both its road games so far, 37-30 in OT (+7.5) at Arizona State, 38-28 (+20) at Oklahoma- they had last week off, while K-State was pulling out 36-35 home upset of Batlor (+3.5), their second straight dramatic win (28-24 at Miami). Mizzou covered nine of its last 11 games as a road favorite.

    Florida is 8-6 in last 14 games vs LSU, with only one loss by more than 7 points, but freshman QB Driskel is making first start here, in front of hostile crowd, with starting QB Brantley hurt. Miles is 13-24-1 as home favorite at LSU- their defense is so good- all five of their wins this year are by 13+ points. Gators were outrushed 226-15 last week, fell apart in second half after Brantley got hurt, losing 38-10. Florida is 7-2 as a road dog since 2003, but were 0-2 LY. SEC home favorites are 4-2 vs spread.

    Nebraska got spanked 48-17 in its Big Dozen debut last week, giving up 486 yards, now they get struggling Ohio State coming into Lincoln with two losses in last three games, scoring 6-7 points in two losses. Huskers gave up 38 points to Washington in last home game, so their defense is suspect. Nebraska is 9-3 as home favorite under Pelini, failing to cover in earlier wins over Fresno/Washington. Buckeyes completed only 23 of 49 passes last three games. Four of five Ohio State games went under.

    San Diego State had last week off after 28-7 (+10) loss at Michigan, in a game Aztecs gained 376 yards. Aztecs lost their last six games vs TCU, losing games here 55-12/45-33/23-20, but Horned Frogs have already lost couple of close games, 50-48 to Baylor, 40-33 in OT to SMU. Frogs are 1-3 as a favorite this year, after being 22-9 as a favorite from '08-'10. All four TCU games went over the total. Since '05, San Diego State is 11-8 as a home underdog- they're +7 in turnovers this season.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/07/2011 10:14 PM


    Saturday, October 8

    College football betting weather report: Week 6

    Weather won't play as much havoc on Saturday as it did earlier this season, with picture-perfect conditions on tap for many games. But there are still several game forecasts you need to be aware of before placing your bets:

    Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns (10.5, 56.5)

    There's a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms for the Red River Rivalry in Dallas, with winds between 11-13 mph and temperatures in the mid-70s.

    Maryland Terrapins at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (14, 63.5)

    Partly cloudy conditions will prevail in Atlanta, with 12-mph winds and temperatures in the mid-70s.

    Memphis Tigers at Rice Owls (-20.5, 59)

    A 30 percent chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast for Houston. Winds will hit 15 mph, with temperatures rising to the mid-80s.

    Missouri Tigers at Kansas State Wildcats (4, 55.5)

    There's a 26 percent chance of thunderstorms for Manhattan, with 17-mph winds and temperatures in the low 80s.

    Kansas Jayhawks at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-31.5, 73)

    Winds swirling at 14 mph and a 21 percent chance of thunderstorms are in the forecast for Stillwater. Temperatures will be in the low 80s.

    Arizona State Sun Devils at Utah Utes (3.5, 48.5)

    Partly cloudy conditions and a 19 percent chance of rain are in the Salt Lake City forecast. Temperatures will be in the low 50s.

    Marshall Thundering Herd at Central Florida Knights (-19, 43.5)

    There's a 78 percent chance of thunderstorms in Orlando. Winds will hit 14 mph and temperatures will be in the low 70s.

    Iowa State Cyclones at Baylor Bears (-15.5, 63.5)

    A 30 percent chance of thunderstorms is in the Waco forecast, with 12-mph winds and temperatures in the low 80s.

    East Carolina Pirates at Houston Cougars (-10.5, 73.5)

    There's a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms for Saturday night, with 13-mph winds and temperatures in the low 80s.

    Texas A&M Aggies at Texas Tech Red Raiders (9.5, 71.5)

    There's a 42 percent chance of thunderstorms in Lubbock, with 11-mph winds and temperatures around 70.

    Ohio State Buckeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-10.5, 45)

    A 54 percent chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast for Lincoln. Temperatures will dip into the high 60s.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/07/2011 10:15 PM


    Saturday, October 8

    Oklahoma vs. Texas: What bettors need to know

    Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns (+10.5, 56.5)

    THE STORY: As usual, the stakes are high in the Red River Rivalry. Top-ranked Oklahoma will look to stay unbeaten against surging Texas, which opened the season ranked 24th but has climbed all the way to No. 10 after four straight victories. Ten of the last 13 meetings between these Big 12 rivals have been decided by 10 or more points, but the last two meetings have been single-digit affairs. Texas has won three of the last five against the Sooners, who defeated the Longhorns 28-20 in 2010. Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops is 7-5 all-time against Texas coach Mack Brown. Texas holds the all-time advantage in the series, 58-41-5.

    TV: ABC

    LINE MOVES: Oklahoma opened as a 8.5-point favorite and has been bet up to 10.5 as of Friday afternoon. The total opened at 56 and was bet up to 57 before coming down to 56.5 points.

    ABOUT NO. 1 OKLAHOMA (4-0, 1-0 Big 12, 3-1 ATS): The Sooners have won all four of their games by 10 or more points, including a road win over then-No. 5 Florida State on Sept. 17. Quarterback Landry Jones, a Heisman Trophy candidate, has gotten off to a bit of a slow start, throwing 10 touchdowns against five interceptions. However, the Oklahoma offense continues to put up huge numbers, averaging 42 points and 555 yards, fourth-best in the country. Oklahoma has struggled against Texas on the ground in the last three years, averaging just 52 rushing yards. In 2009, a 16-13 loss, the Sooners were held to minus 16 yards on 22 carries.

    ABOUT NO. 10 TEXAS (4-0, 1-0 Big 12, 3-1 ATS): The Longhorns could match their win total from all of last season with a victory over the Sooners. Texas went 5-7 last year and finished last in the former Big 12 South division. Texas has relied on an improved offense and a revamped defense, which has demonstrated success under first-year coordinator Manny Diaz. However, while the Longhorns rank No. 14 in total defense, it’s worth noting that the best offense they’ve faced is UCLA’s 63rd-ranked unit. Texas has gone up against offenses ranked 75th, 103rd and 109th, so this week qualifies as its biggest challenge yet. The Longhorns failed to force even a single turnover in last year’s meeting against the Sooners.


    1. Oklahoma hasn’t beaten Texas in consecutive seasons since 2003 and 2004.

    2. The Sooners are looking to start 5-0 for the third time in the last four years.

    3. With its 37-14 win over Iowa State, Texas improved to 12-2 in Big 12 openers under Brown.


    * Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
    * Sooners are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
    * Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
    * Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as favorites.

    PREDICTION: Oklahoma 38, Texas 21 – The Sooners are too good on both sides of the ball for Texas to keep pace, and Jones is poised for a huge game on a big stage.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/07/2011 10:20 PM


    Saturday, October 8

    Game of the day: Ohio State at Nebraska

    Ohio State Buckeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-11, 44.5)

    THE STORY: Nebraska’s weaknesses were on full display for the nation to see last week. Unfortunately, Ohio State’s flaws have been front and center on the college football scene for some time. In Saturday’s 48-17 nationally televised blowout loss at No. 5 Wisconsin, the Huskers allowed a season-worst 486 yards and the most points it had surrendered in a game since a 62-28 loss to Oklahoma in 2008. Three interceptions from quarterback Taylor Martinez led to 21 points for the Badgers. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have been working under the NCAA's microscope since the end of the 2010 season. The latest hit was this week’s announcement that three players - including wide receiver DeVier Posey and running back Dan Herron - will not play Saturday as punishment for receiving improper benefits. Both players were also involved in the memorabilia scandal that eventually led to the dismissal of former coach Jim Tressel. Nebraska and Ohio State have met twice, with the Buckeyes winning both meetings in Columbus in 1955 and 1956.

    TV: ABC

    LINE MOVES: Nebraska opened as a 9.5-point favorite and has been bet up to -11. The total opened at 44 and dropped to 43.5 before going up to 44.5.

    ABOUT NEBRASKA (4-1, 0-1 Big Ten, 1-4 ATS): Martinez has only four touchdown passes against five interceptions in 2011. The Huskers feature the ninth-best rushing attack in the country, led by Rex Burkhead (511 yards) and Martinez (425) - individual totals that rank as the second- and fourth-best marks in the conference, respectively.

    ABOUT OHIO STATE (3-2, 0-1, 2-3 ATS): The Buckeyes, who rank 108th in total offense this season, had only 178 total yards in a 10-7 loss to No. 20 Michigan State last week, only avoiding a shutout by scoring with 10 seconds remaining. Conversely, Ohio State has fared well on the other side of the ball, ranking 11th nationally in scoring defense and 13th in total defense.


    1. Huskers coach Bo Pelini, who played for Ohio State from 1987-1990, is 2-0 against his alma mater during his coaching career, but will be facing the Buckeyes for the first time as a head coach.

    2. Nebraska has started conference play with two losses only once since 1968.

    3. The Buckeyes have won 16 of their last 19 conference games dating back to 2008.


    * Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.
    * Cornhuskers are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as favorites of 10.5 or greater.
    * Under is 9-1-2 in Buckeyes' last 12 road games.
    * Under is 14-6 in Cornhuskers' last 20 home games.

    PREDICTION: Nebraska 24, Ohio State 13 - The Huskers will struggle to run the ball again, but the Buckeyes don’t have the same kind of offensive weapons that Wisconsin does to take advantage of the Huskers’ mistakes. Expect Nebraska to win a low-scoring slugfest.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33421 Followers:38
10/07/2011 10:24 PM

Where the action is: NCAAF Week 6 line moves

We look inside the biggest line moves on the Week 6 college football board. Todd Fuhrman, race and sports analyst for Caesar’s in Las Vegas, was kind enough to talk to *********** about the action behind these adjustments:

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers – Open: -10.5 Move: -14

Minnesota QB MarQueis Gray is still up in the air for Saturday after missing last weekend due to a toe injury. Even if he plays, that injury will slow down the Gophers’ dual-threat QB, and bettors are buying the other side.

“Minnesota has become an automatic go-against,” says Fuhrman. “Until they show something they’ll continue to be that team in the Big Ten.”

Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina Gamecocks – Open: -18.5 Move: -21

South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier benched struggling QB Stephen Garcia and will go with sophomore Connor Shaw against the Wildcats. Bettors seem to think this move should spark a slumping USC offense enough to cover.

“They don’t really have anywhere to go but up,” says Fuhrman. “The offense was brutal against Auburn last week.”

Army Black Knights at Miami (Ohio) RedHawks – Open: -1 Move: +2

The RedHawks' feeble offense has forced bettors to take them from home favorite to slight dog with a dynamic Army offense coming to town.

“You don’t know what you’re going to get with this Miami (Ohio) team,” says Fuhrman. “They’ve had some real clunkers on offense.”

Marshall Thundering Herd at Central Florida Knights – Open: -14.5 Move: -19

Fuhrman says this game is a perfect example of wiseguys driving the price up on one side, only to buy back on the other. He expects sharp money to come in on the Thundering Herd, who should be able to hang within 19 points of an offensively-challenged UCF squad.

“Marshall has struggled to put up points, but at this reduced price, there’s a lot more wiggle room,” says Fuhrman.

Texas A&M Aggies at Texas Tech Red Raiders – Open: +6 Move: +9.5

Despite back-to-back collapses from the Aggies, bettors are confident Texas A&M will put together a complete game against their Texas rival. However, Texas Tech has played much better in the second half – an area where the Aggies have fallen flat.

“You have to consider where (Texas A&M’s) heads are after those two losses,” says Fuhrman. “Texas Tech has enough of a pop-gun offense to keep it close, especially in a rivalry.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33421 Followers:38
10/07/2011 11:19 PM

No. 14 Nebraska favored big over Ohio St


Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Nebraska -11, Total: 44

Ohio State will still be short-handed when it visits No. 14 Nebraska on Saturday.

The Buckeyes were supposed to finally have the services of all four players suspended for receiving improper benefits, but two of those players (RB Dan Herron and WR DeVier Posey) will not be reinstated until at least next week. Even with this star offensive pair unable to go, this point spread is way too high. Nebraska was absolutely pounded in Wisconsin, getting outscored 35-3 in the last 32 minutes of the game. The Huskers still can’t throw the football (168 YPG, 104th in FBS) and OSU’s run defense has held four of five opponents to less than 80 yards. The sputtering Buckeyes offense should find some daylight against a Huskers team ranked 64th in total defense (377 YPG). Historically, they are a great road play, going 16-7 ATS (70%) on the road since 2007. The pick here is OHIO STATE to cover.

This rare five-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the visiting Buckeyes:

OHIO ST is 14-1 ATS (93.3%, +12.9 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The average score was OHIO ST 34.9, OPPONENT 14.5 - (Rating = 5*).

OSU’s offense was also atrocious last week against Michigan State with 178 total yards and 0.9 yards per carry (39 rushes, 35 yards) in a 10-7 loss. The yards were the fewest in a regular-season game since 2004 and the team’s only points came with 10 seconds left in the game. Adding injury to insult, starting WR Verlon Reed suffered a season-ending knee injury in the loss to the Spartans. The quarterback situation at Ohio State continues to be unsettled. Freshman Braxton Miller started last game, but went 5-of-10 for 56 yards and an interception before getting replaced by Joe Bauserman, who finished 7-for-14 for 87 yards and a touchdown. Bauserman is likely to get the start on Saturday having thrown zero picks and five touchdowns this year (Miller has 3 TD and 2 INT). For the Buckeyes to hang around with the Huskers, they will need to continue their positive turnover margin (+4). OSU has seven takeaways in the past three games.

In last week’s 48-17 loss in Madison, Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez tossed three interceptions and only gained 61 yards on 20 carries. He has completed just 51% of his passes this year with five picks, but he had done a nice job using his legs before the Wisconsin loss. He has 482 rushing yards and eight rushing TD on the season. RB Rex Burkhead also has eight rushing touchdowns and leads the Huskers with 516 rushing yards, including 386 yards (7.0 YPC) in the past three weeks. The Nebraska defense was also atrocious against the Badgers, allowing a season-high 486 yards. The team is tallying a mere 1.6 sacks per game and its average of 4.0 tackles for loss ranks 113th out of the 120 FBS schools. Another weapon that has been a huge boost to the offense is kick returner Ameer Abdullah, who leads the nation with 35.1 yards per kick return and places 18th in the land in punt return average (12.0).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33421 Followers:38
10/07/2011 11:22 PM

Georgia-Tennessee square off Saturday night


Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Georgia -2, Total: 56.5

SEC foes try to avoid their second loss in conference play when Tennessee hosts Georgia on Saturday night.

The past six meetings in this series have all been decided by at least 12 points, but each school has won three times during this span. Georgia has won three straight this year (SU and ATS), holding these opponents to 169 total YPG and 1.8 YPC, while forcing eight turnovers. Vols sophomore QB Tyler Bray has thrown for at least 3 TD in every game this year and averages 332 passing YPG. But Bulldogs sophomore QB Aaron Murray scored four touchdowns (two passing, two rushing) in last year’s 41-14 blowout of Tennessee and should have a huge bounce-back performance after throwing three picks last week. Take GEORGIA to grab the big road win.

This FoxSheets trend also supports the Bulldogs:

TENNESSEE is 2-15 ATS (11.8%, -14.5 Units) in home games versus excellent defensive teams - allowing <=285 yards/game since 1992. The average score was TENNESSEE 19.6, OPPONENT 20.4 - (Rating = 3*).

Georgia’s freshman running back, Isaiah Crowell is quickly making his mark as one of his conference’s top rushers. Crowell has topped 100 rushing yards in all three games versus SEC opponents this year, totaling 369 yards on 54 carries (6.8 YPC). Another freshman is also gaining confidence as his first year moves on, as WR Malcolm Mitchell already has 22 catches for 312 yards and three scores. In addition to the Bulldogs unbelievable rushing defense in the past three games, their passing defense ranks fourth in the nation this year with 152 YPG allowed.

Bray has been truly remarkable this season, connecting on 69 percent of his passes for 1,328 yards, 14 TD and 2 INT. He’s doing this despite a ground game that ranks 98th in the nation with 111 YPG. But other than his 18-yard game versus Florida, senior RB Tauren Poole has amassed 300 rushing yards in his other three contests this season. He only has one touchdown though, which came in Week 1 against Montana. Tennessee needs to beef up its pass rush against Georgia as the Vols rank 87th in the nation with just 1.5 sacks per

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33421 Followers:38
10/07/2011 11:24 PM

No. 17 Florida visits No. 1 LSU on Saturday

at LSU TIGERS (5-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: LSU -13.5, Total: 41.5

The No. 1 team in the land plays its fourth ranked opponent in six weeks when LSU entertains No. 17 Florida on Saturday. The Tigers have 13 straight home wins since losing to the Gators in 2009.

Florida is 8-1 ATS (6-3 SU) in its past nine trips to Baton Rouge, but starting QB John Brantley (ankle) is doubtful to play Saturday. Freshman QB Jeff Driskel likely has the daunting task of trying to move the football against a team with the country’s ninth-best defense in both yardage (262 YPG) and scoring (12.8 PPG). Baton Rouge is no place for a freshman QB to make his first career start, and Driskel doesn’t figure to get a lot of help from the ground game which rushed for 15 yards on 29 carries against Alabama last week. The Tigers will be jacked up to play in front of their home crowd, having allowed a total of 10 points and 250 yards in two games at Tiger Stadium. Play on LSU to win and cover the double-digit spread.

The FoxSheets show a four-star trend expecting this game to finish OVER the total:

Play Over - All teams where the total is 42 or less (FLORIDA, LSU) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. (36-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80%, +26.1 units. Rating = 4*).

Brantley hurt his right leg when he was sacked in Saturday’s 38-10 loss to Alabama. Surgery isn’t required, but Brantley is likely to miss at least one week. Driskel didn’t fare too well as his replacement, completing 2-of-6 passes for 14 yards and taking two sacks. The freshman also fumbled a snap and led his offense to just two first downs. Before last week, Florida was leading the conference in rushing with 259 YPG, but LSU ranks third in the nation in run defense, allowing a mere 60 rushing YPG. Neither of the team’s top two rushers (Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey) played in last year’s home loss to LSU, but Demps has 215 yards on 8.3 YPC in two career games against the Tigers.

Despite averaging 38.0 PPG this season, LSU’s offense ranks 90th among FBS schools in total yardage (350 YPG). Ranking fourth in the nation in turnover margin (+1.8 per game) is a big reason for this discrepancy between points and yards. One player that could continue to help the Tigers on Saturday is QB Jordan Jefferson whose suspension was lifted last week after his felony battery charge in an Aug. 19 bar fight was reduced to a misdemeanor. He rushed for 29 yards and a touchdown on four carries last week, but Jarrett Lee will continue to get the bulk of playing time under center. Lee has completed 64-of-108 passes (59%) for 793 yards, 7 TD and 1 INT in five games this year.

The Tigers offense revolves around the rushing attack, and Jefferson is a quality running QB with 784 rushing yards and 10 TD in his career. RB Spencer Ware leads the team with 333 rushing yards, but he gained only five yards on four carries last week before leaving with hamstring injury. Ware is expected to start on Saturday. Michael Ford was also held in check against Kentucky (nine carries, 22 yards), but he already has three multi-TD games this year. Alfred Blue, who had a career-best 72 rushing yards against UK and freshman Terrence Magee (38 rush yds vs. Kentucky) round out a strong RB rotation that should be able to gain large chunks of yardage on a Florida defense that surrendered 226 yards to Alabama last week.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33421 Followers:38
10/07/2011 11:27 PM

Oklahoma favored big in Red River Rivalry


Cotton Bowl – Dallas, TX
Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma -10, Total: 57.5

The Red River Rivalry renews Saturday afternoon when No. 3 Oklahoma and No. 11 Texas meet halfway at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.

Oklahoma has won nine straight games dating to last season, while Texas is coming off back-to-back blowout road wins at UCLA (49-20) and Iowa State (37-14), gaining 888 yards in these two victories. In these two games since turnover-prone QB Garrett Gilbert was benched in Week 2, the Longhorns have thrown zero interceptions. Oklahoma has a high-flying offense, averaging 555 YPG (4th in nation), but Texas has a tremendous defense, ranking in the nation’s top-15 teams in both points allowed (14.8 PPG) and yards allowed (289 YPG). The past four meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, and Saturday will be no different as TEXAS keeps this score close enough to cover the spread.

The FoxSheets provide a coaching trend siding with the ‘Horns:

Mack Brown is 22-9 ATS (71.0%, +12.1 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs as the coach of TEXAS. The average score was TEXAS 42.9, OPPONENT 19.2 - (Rating = 2*).

Sooners QB Landry Jones is fourth in the nation in offense (363 total YPG), and is coming off a 5-TD game against Ball State, but he has thrown five interceptions in the past three games. Jones threw for 236 yards and 2 TD in last year’s 28-20 win over Texas. He also replaced an injured Sam Bradford in the 2009 meeting, but only completed 24-of-43 passes for 250 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT in that 16-13 loss. Although senior WR Ryan Broyles is off to another fast start this year (38 rec, 476 yds, 6 TD), Texas has held him to 12 catches for 130 yards in three meetings. RB Dominique Whaley will be playing in his first Oklahoma-Texas game, and although his overall numbers are impressive this year (378 rush yds, 7 TD), he has gained only 139 yards on 37 carries (3.8 YPC) in two games versus BCS opponents. The offense would be even more efficient if the return game was better. The Sooners are 110th in the nation in kick returns (18.0 avg.) and 98th in punt returns (4.4 avg). On the defensive side of the ball, Oklahoma has forced 10 turnovers, and in the lone takeaway-free game against Missouri, the Sooners allowed 532 yards to the Tigers.

The Longhorns QB duo of Case McCoy and David Ash have combined to go 39-of-56 (70%) for 548 yards, 4 TD and 0 INT. They will probably not be asked to make too many difficult throws on Saturday. If the Longhorns are to pull off the upset on Saturday, the ground game will need to continue churning out yards. The team has averaged 206 rushing YPG (25th in nation), with Malcolm Brown the only rusher with more than 150 yards. Fozzy Whittaker and Cody Johnson have each scored four of the team’s nine rushing touchdowns. Texas is tied for seventh in the nation with a turnover margin of +1.5 per game. Last year, the Longhorns tied for the fourth-worst turnover margin among FBS schools (-1.0 per game), which was a big reason they finished 5-7 on the year.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/07/2011 11:37 PM

    No. 10 Arkansas hosts No. 15 Auburn Saturday


    Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
    Line: Arkansas -10.5, Total: 63.5

    Two of the top-15 teams in the nation look to build upon upset wins when No. 15 Auburn visits No. 10 Arkansas on Saturday night.

    Auburn held the erratic Stephen Garcia to 160 yards last week, but its defense is not capable of stopping a great offense like Arkansas has. Auburn allowed 333 rushing yards to Mississippi State, and Clemson’s Tajh Boyd torched the Tigers for 386 passing yards and 4 TD. With Razorbacks QB Tyler Wilson throwing for 510 yards (281 going to Jarius Wright) against a good Texas A&M defense, the Hogs should put up at least 40 points on Auburn. Wilson had 332 yards, 4 TD and 2 INT in last year’s 65-43 loss to the Cam Newton-led Tigers, the highest-scoring regulation game in SEC history. ARKANSAS is 15-2 SU (11-5 ATS) at home since 2008, and will win big in this game.

    This pair of FoxSheets trends also favor the Razorbacks:

    Bobby Petrino is 9-1 ATS (90.0%, +7.9 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Petrino 46.3, OPPONENT 20.7 - (Rating = 1*).

    ARKANSAS is 19-5 ATS (79.2%, +13.5 Units) in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse since 1992. The average score was ARKANSAS 37.8, OPPONENT 14.7 - (Rating = 2*).

    Auburn’s defensive woes have been well documented, but the offense hasn’t been great either. The team ranks 98th in the nation in passing yards (184 YPG), and is 80th in total defense (371 YPG). QB Barrett Trotter has been rather ordinary since a strong debut against Utah State, throwing for 159 YPG, 6 TD and 5 INT in his past four games. Part of his struggles has been an offensive line failing to protect him. Auburn has allowed 2.4 sacks per game this season, which is tied for 81st in the country. The one facet of the Tigers football team that still works is the running game. Michael Dyer ranks third in the SEC with 113 rushing YPG, including 141 yards on a whopping 41 carries (3.4 YPC) in last week’s win against South Carolina.

    Arkansas has a minus-4 turnover margin this year, which is more a product of a defense not creating turnovers (four takeaways in five games). Wilson has only thrown three picks in 172 pass attempts. The offensive line needs to do a better job both protecting Wilson (12 sacks allowed) and opening up holes for the running game, which ranks 92nd among FBS schools with just 120 rushing YPG. Junior Dennis Johnson figures to get some more touches after amassing 123 total yards on eight carries and four receptions against Texas A&M. The defensive line also needs to get more push into opponents’ backfields. Arkansas ranks 103rd in the nation in sacks (1.0 per game) and is tied for 105th among FBS schools with its average of 4.4 Tackles for Loss per game.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/07/2011 11:40 PM

    Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game
    46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
    0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

    Play On - A road team vs. the money line (ILLINOIS) off 2 consecutive home wins, undefeated on the season
    47-27 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.5% | 0.0 units )
    4-6 this year. ( 40.0% | 0.0 units )

    Play Under - Any team vs the the 1rst half total off an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%)
    46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
    0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/07/2011 11:47 PM

    Las Vegas Money Moves

    October 7, 2011

    The Las Vegas sports books had some activity from sharp money Thursday afternoon for this week’s college football action that pushed several games.
    Mississippi State initially opened at the Wynn Resort as a 17-point favorite on Sunday night while the Las Vegas Hilton opened up 16 ½ on Monday morning. Despite UAB being at home -- what little advantage it is for them -- it’s been all Miss State money and today the number was pushed up 18 ½ at the Hilton.

    Purdue and Minnesota are coming off lopsided losses last week as they meet up in West Lafayette. For Minnesota, they will be without starting quarterback MarQueis Gray. The game was tentatively opened at Purdue -10 for low limits because of Gray’s ‘questionable’ status, but between the combination of wagers and air moves based on information, the line is now pretty universal at -13 ½.

    North Carolina opened as a 12-point favorite at the Wynn Sunday night and then got bet down to -11 for its home game against Louisville. Once another line was available for reference from the offshore outfits, money started pouring in on Carolina. When the Wynn closed Sunday night, the line was Carolina -13 ½. On Monday, their first bets were on Carolina pushing the game to -15. Then on Thursday, they got a little buy-back on Louisville at +15 and 14 ½ and currently sit at 14.

    The Hilton opened Central Florida as a 16-point favorite for its home against Marshall. Thursday afternoon they took some wagers on UCF pushing the game to -19.

    Arizona also saw some action for its road game at Oregon State. Arizona opened as a 1-point favorite, was bet against down to PICK, and then bet on Thursday pushing

    Quarterback E.J. Manuel is expected to start for Florida State at Wake Forest this week, which should be a good thing, but the line hasn’t reflected it. The Hilton opened FSU -12 ½, was bet up to -13, and then bet against between Wednesday and Thursday to its current number of -10.

    The Wynn opened Texas A&M as a 6 ½-point favorite for its road game at Texas Tech and no one touched the game. On Monday, they found themselves being bet to -7 ½, Wednesday to -8 and Thursday to -8 ½. The Hilton currently has the Aggies as 9 ½-point favorites.

    Akron got some play for their Saturday home game, getting +20 ½-points on the opening Hilton line from Florida International. The South Point and others currently have the game 17.

    The most interesting side-to-total game this week is Alabama laying -29 at home against Vanderbilt where the total is 41 ½. Anytime a spread is 50% of what the total is, the bettor has a great correlated parlay advantage whether taking the favorite to OVER, or underdog to the UNDER.

    One of the big games of the week is Ohio State visiting Nebraska. The Huskers opened up as 10 ½-point favorites at the Hilton and are now -11. It’s been all one-way action with small money. The public has been winning these nationally televised games with regularity so far this season and Station Casinos looked to stay ahead of the line moves by being a half-point higher than the rest of the world at -11 ½. By them still being there -- with no large money taking the points -- it’s a sign to the rest of the sports books that there might not be any Buckeyes money until 13 comes around. Even then, it may be a hard sell because of how bad THE Ohio State University’s offense looks.

    Station’s also had a high number on LSU -14, but found some Florida money Thursday and are now back down to -13 ½. LSU opened as a 12-point home favorites for this one.

    The Hilton opened Oklahoma as a 10-point favorite for their Red River rivalry match against Texas. Sooners money came in initially, but the spread has been steady at -10 ½ with Leroy’s being the highest at -11. Station Casinos and Lucky’s have low number in town at -10.

    The Wynn opened the game -10 ½ Sunday and got nothing but Texas money dropping as low as -8. But their roller coaster ride brought them right back in line to the number they started with. For their sake, I hope the Sooners don’t win by 10.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/07/2011 11:55 PM

    Big 10 Report - Week 6

    October 7, 2011

    Nebraska (-10) vs. Ohio State - (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)

    NEB: 4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS - Last week: at Wisconsin, L 17-48
    OSU: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS - Last week: vs. Michigan State, L 7-10

    Both teams are off of a loss. Nebraska was embarrassed in its first conference game as a member of the Big Ten while Ohio State continued to struggle in a 7-10 loss at home to Michigan State. This game looked like a match-up of juggernauts when it was announced in the offseason, now it's a match-up of two teams trying to save face in the Big Ten.

    Ohio State was lucky to avoid a shutout last week against MSU as it scored a meaningless touchdown with :10 seconds remaining. It had just 35 rushing yards on 39 carries, totaled 178 yards, and allowed nine sacks and 13 tackles for loss. Problems stem from inconsistency at QB, where Bauserman and Miller have combined to complete just 40.3% for 96 YPG with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions over the past three games. More bad news for the offense: Herron, Posey, and Hall (supposed to return after suspensions) are all suspended for at least one more week.

    After averaging 43 points per game in non-conference play, Nebraska could only manage 17 against Wisconsin last week. QB Martinez threw three costly interceptions and the defense, supposed to be the strength of this team, is still a work in progress. The Blackshirts are now allowing 377 yards per game (64th nationally) and 27 points per game (73rd). Coach Bo Pelini said he was embarrassed by his team's defensive performance in Madison and you can bet the Blackshirts will have a better performance here against OSU's struggling offense.

    Determining an advantage for either side is difficult as it is Homecoming for the Huskers and Memorial Stadium should be electric for the first home game as a member of the Big Ten. But the Buckeyes can't afford another loss if they even want a shot at competing in the Big Ten as they have a road trip to 5-0 Illinois and a home meeting with 5-0 Wisconsin in their next two games.

    Something to consider: OSU 18-2 straight up in Big Ten road games over the past five years and 20-7-1 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss. Nebraska is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a double-digit favorite.

    Penn State (-3) vs. Iowa - (ABC-ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)

    PSU: 4-1 SU, 0-5 ATS - Last week: at Indiana, W 16-10
    IOWA: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: BYE

    Penn State barely escaped with a win over hapless Indiana last week as its offensive woes continue. Just like Ohio State, PSU's struggles start at the quarterback position. McGloin and Bolden have completed just 52% with 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions this season. Overall this offense is 81st in total yards and 94th in points per game. Despite the offensive struggles, PSU's defense is keeping things afloat. This unit ranks 6th in pass defense, 24th in rush defense, and 7th in points allowed.

    Iowa has defeated Penn State nine of the past 11 meetings and three straight overall, including a win @PSU in 2009 when the Lions were ranked no. 5. Last year, Iowa held Penn State to just 301 yards and 3 points in the 21-point victory.

    This Hawkeyes offense is surging behind QB Vandenberg and a bevy of talented receivers. In his first season as starting QB, Vandenberg has completed 63% for 274 yards per game with 10 touchdowns and just one interception. He leads an offense that is averaging 38 points per game.

    Iowa is off a bye week, and while we can't predict how the rest of the season will play out, a win here could give Iowa a head-start in the wide-open Legends division as four of its next five games are at home and they don't face Wisconsin or Illinois.

    Something to consider: Iowa has been historically good as an underdog, covering 36 of its previous 54 games as a 'dog (67%). PSU is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games overall and 1-5 ATS in its last six home match-ups with Iowa.

    Northwestern (+7) vs. Michigan - (Big Ten, 7:00 p.m. ET)

    NW: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: at Illinois, L 35-38
    MICH: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS - Last week: vs. Minnesota, W 58-0

    This is the highest the Wolverines have been ranked since starting the 2007 at no. 5 (lost to Appalachian State and haven't been in the Top 10 since. This will be their first game outside of Ann Arbor, however, and they can't overlook a pesky Northwestern squad - especially with a road game at in-state rival Michigan looming. Northwestern has to fix its defense that's allowing 174 rush YPG and 420 total YPG or Denard Robinson and company will have a field day. These two haven't met since 2008.

    It's hard to find a flaw with this Michigan squad. Offensively QB Robinson has this unit rolling, while the defense is allowing just 10.2 points per game (2nd nationally). However, some might attribute this to playing weak opponents at home, as the Wolves allowed 31 points to its best opponent thus far (Notre Dame). They are off of a 58-0 drubbing of horrendous Minnesota, and this team is building confidence under first year coach Brady Hoke.

    Northwestern surged to a 28-10 third-quarter lead at Illinois last week behind outstanding play from quarterback Dan Persa (first start back from injury and he threw a career-high 4 touchdown passes). Then Persa got injured and everything fell apart. Illinois rallied for a 38-35 win and now Northwestern is in dire need of a victory. Persa is practicing and expected to start this weekend.

    Something to consider: Michigan is just 7-17 ATS in its last 24 games as a favorite and 4-23 ATS its last 27 conference games. Northwestern is 13-5 ATS its last 18 games as an underdog but just 1-5 ATS its last 6 home games.

    Indiana (+16) vs. Illinois - (Big Ten, 2:30 p.m. ET)

    IND: 1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Penn State, L 10-16
    ILL: 5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS - Last week: vs. Northwestern, W 38-35

    The defense led Illinois to back-to-back close wins over Western Michigan and Arizona State, but the offense stepped up in a big way in the 38-35 comeback win over Northwestern last week. QB Scheelhaase had 391 yards passing - 268 of them to WR Jenkins - and four total touchdowns as the Illini erased an 18-point deficit in the final 18 minutes. Still, Illinois is playing with fire with three straight three-point victories. Now they're a double-digit road favorite in their first game outside of Champaign.

    After hitting rock bottom in a loss at North Texas two weeks ago, Indiana bounced back with a decent performance against Penn State, particularly on defense. The Hoosiers forced three turnovers (two inside the red-zone) and limited the Lions to just 16 points. With QB Wright-Baker out with an ankle injury, sophomore Kiel got the first start of his career. He threw for 184 yards (49%) with a touchdown and an interception.

    Indiana has dropped three of the last four against Illinois, including last year's 13-43 loss in Champaign. Indiana had +100 yards and +7 first downs, but turned the ball over five times and repeatedly gave the Illini a short field for easy scores.

    Something to consider: Illinois hasn't been a double-digit road favorite since 2007. Indiana has covered five of the last six overall as an underdog but is just 9-18 ATS its last 27 games as a double-digit 'dog.

    Purdue (-10) vs. Minnesota (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

    PU: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS - Last week: vs. Notre Dame, L 10-38
    MINN: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: at Michigan, L 0-58

    These two teams lost by a combined 86 points last week. Minnesota lost on the road while Purdue's loss came at home. Purdue's porous defense was exposed last week as the Irish racked up 287 rush yards and 551 total yards against this unit. On the other side, Minnesota was outgained by 403 yards and had 24 fewer first downs and was shutout. Neither of these teams has a lot going for them right now, but the good news is that one will get its first Big Ten win of the season on Saturday. Offensively the Boilermakers solid numbers may be deceiving (averaging over 200 yards passing and rushing and scoring nearly 30 points per game) as those numbers were accumulated against mediocre talent. QB's Marve and TerBush combined to complete 19-of-37 for 192 yards with a touchdown and a pick last week against Notre Dame. TerBush remains number one on the depth chart, but both will see playing time again this weekend.

    Minnesota ranks at or near the bottom in every major offensive and defensive category. True freshman QB Shortell made the first start of his career last week as MarQueis Gray was out with a toe injury. Gray is expected to be back and the Gophers will welcome his athleticism (351 rush yards and 521 pass yards). Something to consider: Purdue has won 10 of the last 13 meetings with Minnesota, including last year's 11-point victory. However, the Boilers are just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games as a double-digit favorite.

    Wisconsin - BYE

    WISC: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS - Last week: vs. Nebraska, W 48-17

    Wisconsin opened up conference play with a 48-17 beat-down of Nebraska. There aren't many teams in the nation playing better football than Wisconsin right now. The Badgers rank 8th in total offense, 3rd in scoring offense, 10th in total defense, and 4th in scoring defense. No matter the opponent, Wisconsin will be a healthy favorite for the remainder of the season (11-1 ATS the past 12 games).

    Michigan State - BYE

    MSU: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS - Last week: at Ohio State, W 10-7

    Michigan State won its first game @OSU since 1998. The offense was supposed to be the strong point of this team, but QB Cousins (6 TD & 4 INT) and the rest of this unit has failed to match last years production. The defensive unit is what's holding this team together. This 'D' smothered Ohio State to the tune of 178 yards and 7 points. For the season this unit ranks 1st in the nation in total defense and 3rd in scoring defense. The next two weeks will define the season with home dates against Michigan and Wisconsin.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/07/2011 11:58 PM

    SEC Showdowns

    October 7, 2011

    When you’re a true freshman quarterback, you aren’t supposed to get thrown to the wolves like this. In my opinion, Alabama has the nation’s premier defense and LSU has the second-best stop unit.

    In the first six quarters of meaningful playing time in Jeff Driskel’s career, this is what he must face. When Florida senior quarterback John Brantley suffered a severe ankle sprain late in the second quarter vs. Alabama last week, Driskel was suddenly thrust under center for the Gators in the third and fourth quarters.

    The results weren’t pretty, as Alabama shut down UF in the second half en route to a 38-10 win as a four-point road favorite.

    Things looked good for Will Muschamp’s team in the early going. On the second play from scrimmage, sophomore wide receiver Andre DeBose got separation from ‘Bama lockdown cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick and Brantley hit him perfectly in stride for a 65-yard scoring strike.

    After Alabama answered with a field goal, UF promptly marched into the red zone and nearly got into the end zone on three straight plays. On first and goal, Brantley hit Chris Rainey all alone along the sideline, but Rainey was unable to keep his balance and his momentum took him out of bounds at the five.

    Brantley threw a TD pass on the next play, but the score was correctly reversed after a replay review. Then a third-and-goal pass should’ve been caught, but the Gators had to settle for a field goal and a 10-3 lead.

    With the score tied at 10-10 early in the second quarter, Brantley made his only mistake of the night and pair for it dearly. Courtney Upshaw intercepted Brantley’s short pass and returned it 45 yards for a touchdown.

    The Crimson Tide would tack on another score for a 24-10 advantage with 3:13 remaining in the second quarter. UF then moved into ‘Bama territory but on a third-down play, Brantley was sacked and suffered the high ankle sprain that’ll likely keep him on the sidelines for 3-4 weeks.

    Caleb Sturgis’s 53-yard field-goal attempt on the final play of the half was long enough but wide. And, as previously mentioned, it was all Alabama in final 30 minutes.

    Now Driskel will make his first career start on the road at one of the country’s most difficult venues. But the Gators have had plenty of success at Tiger Stadium, especially for our purposes.

    In fact, Florida (4-1 straight up, 3-1-1 against the spread) has taken the cash in six straight games at LSU, winning outright four times. The Gators are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.

    As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had LSU (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) favored by 13 ½ with a total of 42. Gamblers can take UF on the money line for a lucrative plus-450 return (risk $100 to win $450).

    Since 2001, Florida has been a double-digit underdog just twice. The Gators have covered the spread in both instances. The last double-digit ‘dog spot came at LSU in 2003 when Keiwan Ratliff’s interceptions led UF to a 19-7 win over the eventual national champions.

    LSU has been No. 2 in my power rankings from the get-go and it has been the country’s most impressive team to date thanks to the quality of its five wins over Oregon (40-27), Northwestern St. (49-3), Mississippi St. (19-6), West Va. (47-21) and Kentucky (35-7).

    Les Miles’ team has an outstanding power running game, dangerous weapons at the WR position and a play-making defense that creates turnovers galore. Jarrett Lee has been solid at QB since taking over for Jordan Jefferson, who was suspended for the first four games of the year.

    Lee has a 7/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has played like a veteran in three big wins on the road (Oregon was actually a neutral at Cowboys Stadium, but you get the point.). This is why I believe Miles needs to be extremely careful about the way he incorporates Jefferson into the offense.

    In other words, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. LSU is in cruise control and the last thing it needs is controversy in the locker room. Jefferson screwed up to lose his job and Lee has taken advantage. Nevertheless, Miles seem intent on getting Jefferson snaps in short-yardage situations to utilize his speed, but this could be a slippery slope that could lead to team turmoil.

    LSU has not fared well as a home favorite during Miles’ seven-year tenure, posting an abysmal 13-25-1 spread record. In the Tigers’ last 15 games as double-digit home ‘chalk,’ they are an atrocious 3-11-1 ATS.

    CBS will have television coverage of UF-LSU at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

    In a huge SEC East showdown at Neyland Stadium, Tennessee (3-1 SU, 2-0-2 ATS) will take on Georgia in Knoxville. With South Carolina and Florida losing last week, the UGA-UT winner will have an excellent chance of winning the division.

    Most books are listing Georgia (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) as a two-point favorite with the total in the 55-56 range. The Dawgs have won three in a row both SU and ATS since losing their first two games. They thumped Mississippi St. by a 24-10 count as seven-point home favorites last week.

    Isaiah Crowell rushed for 104 yards and Aaron Murray threw a pair of touchdown passes. However, Murray was intercepted three times. He has a 13/6 TD-INT ratio for the year.

    Mark Richt’s team is 2-1 in SEC play, losing to South Carolina and winning at Ole Miss prior to the victory over MSU. Crowell has rushed for 100-plus yards in back-to-back games and is averaging 5.2 yards per carry.

    Tennessee is coming off a 41-10 win over Buffalo as a 28 ½-point home favorite. Tyler Bray threw for 342 and four TDs without being intercepted. For the season, Bray now has 14 TD passes compared to only two picks.

    Georgia has been a road favorite 28 times under Richt, compiling a 16-11-1 spread record. Meanwhile, the Vols are 4-7 ATS as home underdogs since 2001. They are 0-3 versus the number in three such spots on Dooley’s watch.

    UGA spanked UT by a 41-14 count as an 11-point home ‘chalk’ last season. But in its last two trips to Knoxville, Georgia has taken woodshed treatment. The Vols won by a 45-19 count in 2009 and a 35-14 score in ’07.

    Kickoff is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

    **B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

    --The ‘over’ is on a 9-2 run in UT’s last 11 home games.

    --South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier will give Connor Shaw his second career start Saturday vs. Kentucky. Shaw started the season opener but was relieved by Stephen Garcia when the Gamecocks quickly fell behind 17-0 to East Carolina. Garcia has been intercepted six times in the last two games against Vandy and Auburn. South Carolina is favored by 21 vs. UK.

    --Miami DT Marcus Fortson is done for the season.

    --Ohio State is a double-digit underdog Saturday at Nebraska. The Buckeyes have only been double-digit ‘dogs once since 2003. That occasion came in 2008 when Southern Cal stroked OSU 35-3 as a 12-point home favorite.

    --Coaching Hot Seats:
    1-Rick Neuheisel (UCLA)
    2-Houston Nutt (Ole Miss)
    3-Neil Callaway (UAB)
    4-Mike Riley (Oregon State)
    5-Mark Richt (Georgia)

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33421 Followers:38
10/08/2011 10:08 AM


Saturday, October 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Mississippi State - 12:00 PM ET Alabama-Birmingham +19.5 500
Alabama-Birmingham -

Maryland - 12:00 PM ET Georgia Tech -14.5 500
Georgia Tech -

Louisville - 12:00 PM ET North Carolina -13.5 500
North Carolina -

Connecticut - 12:00 PM ET Connecticut +19 500
West Virginia -

Minnesota - 12:00 PM ET Purdue -14 500
Purdue -

Oklahoma - 12:00 PM ET Texas +10.5 500
Texas -

Kentucky - 12:20 PM ET Kentucky +21 500
South Carolina -

Florida State - 12:30 PM ET Wake Forest +10 500
Wake Forest -

Memphis - 12:30 PM ET Rice -20.5 500
Rice -

Army - 1:00 PM ET Miami (Ohio) +2 500
Miami (Ohio) -

Florida International - 2:00 PM ET Akron +17 500
Akron -

Temple - 2:00 PM ET Temple -9.5 500
Ball State -

Bowling Green - 2:00 PM ET Western Michigan -10 500
Western Michigan -

Illinois - 2:30 PM ET Indiana +14 500
Indiana -

Boston College - 3:00 PM ET Clemson -21 500
Clemson -

Eastern Michigan - 3:00 PM ET Toledo -21 500
Toledo -

Central Michigan - 3:30 PM ET Central Michigan +10.5 500
North Carolina State -

Pittsburgh - 3:30 PM ET Rutgers +7 500
Rutgers -

Kansas - 3:30 PM ET Kansas +31 500
Oklahoma State -

Arizona - 3:30 PM ET Arizona -2 500
Oregon State -

Iowa - 3:30 PM ET Iowa +4.5 500
Penn State -

Arizona State - 3:30 PM ET Utah +3.5 500
Utah -

Miami - 3:30 PM ET Miami +7 500
Virginia Tech -

Ohio - 3:30 PM ET Ohio -8.5 500
Buffalo -

Missouri - 3:30 PM ET Kansas State +4 500
Kansas State -

Kent State - 3:30 PM ET Northern Illinois -16.5 500 [/B
]Northern Illinois -

Air Force - 3:30 PM ET [B]Air Force +14 500

Notre Dame -

Southern Mississippi - 3:30 PM ET Southern Mississippi +1 500
Navy -

Florida - 3:30 PM ET Louisiana State -13 500
Louisiana State -

Louisiana Tech - 5:00 PM ET Idaho +3.5 500
Idaho -

Late Games Posted Later....GOOD LUCK !

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/08/2011 11:41 AM

    Armadillo: Weekend's six-pack

    -- Home team covered seven of last nine Illinois-Indiana games.

    -- Iowa won six of last seven vs Penn State, including four SU upsets.

    -- Favorites are 10-1-1 vs spread in last dozen Minnesota-Purdue games.

    -- Boise State covered nine of last ten against Fresno State.

    -- Washington State covered eight of last eleven against UCLA.

    -- Nevada covered its last five games against UNLV.


    Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Things I'm looking for this weekend

    13) Mack Brown appears to have Texas back on right track after LY’s 5-7 fiasco, but playing Oklahoma in Cotton Bowl has always been a yardstick game for both teams. With Garrett Gilbert transferring out of Austin this week, it becomes especially important for the Longhorns to at least be competitive with Oklahoma, to sustain the perception of improvement.

    12) John Brantley has a high ankle sprain, so Florida turns to true freshman QB Driskill for its game at LSU this week; luckily for the Gators, it’s a 3:30 CBS game, and not a night game. I am told there is nothing like the atmosphere on a Saturday night in Baton Rouge.

    ESPN’s Jesse Palmer told a story on-air this week about an LSU fan threatening Palmer from the stands while he was a Florida Gator. When Palmer turned to see who was threatening to climb the fence and do physical harm to him, Palmer saw that his tormentor was a woman!!!!

    11) Hopefully Nebraska’s first Big Dozen home game will go better than the road opener at Wisconsin; the Buckeyes come into Lincoln using a freshman QB who put up only one score at home vs Michigan State last week, and that was in the game’s last minute. Cornhuskers need a decisive win in this game.

    10) Tampa Bay Bucs are 9-0-2 vs spread in last 11 road games, but they’ve got a West Coast trip on a short work week, which is a very tough scheduling spot, especially against a 49er squad doing the little things (+8 turnover ratio) right.

    9) Can NC State beat a I-A team, even if it is Central Michigan? Has any team ever looked dumber than the Wolfpack does for basically giving Russell Wilson away?

    8) How will Eldrick Woods do this week in San Jose with his new caddy, as he placates the Presidents Cup people and plays a tournament before heading to Australia?

    7) Eagles were called the Dream Team this summer; now they’re 1-3, struggling on defense and playing a 3-1 Bills team that has 28 guys who were either not drafted or drafted in rounds 5-7. Interesting game. 6) Larry Fitzgerald goes home to Minnesota this week; his Arizona Cardinals lost their last three games by total of 8 points. Vikings haven’t won a game yet. Loser is going to be in deep trouble.

    5) I’m curious to hear how Terry Francona is on TV; if he’s good, his managerial career could be over. Still can’t believe the Red Sox let him get away. Interesting to see where he winds up and who the Red Sox replace him with. Its a very tough act to follow.

    4) Hockey season starts this weekend; if you haven’t seen a pro hockey game in person and you get a chance, go. Hockey is the one sport that loses the most in translation to TV. Great fun in person.

    3) By Tuesday we should have a much better idea if there’s going to be an extended work stoppage in the NBA; my gut says there’s going to be. Too bad. Players would still be big winners, even if they gave the owners everything they wanted, but there are huge egos involved, so that ain’t happening.

    2) Couple interesting playoff revenge scenarios Sunday. Jets won in Foxboro last January, are now struggling and are on road for third week in row; they seem vulnerable to a Patriots team that has it rolling on offense. Packers made like Sherman going thru Atlanta in last winter’s playoffs; now they’re 4-0 and going back to Georgia Dome, facing a Falcon squad that hasn’t hit its stride yet this season, but won its only home game.

    1) Monday is Detroit’s first Monday night home game in a decade; Lions are going to have a very good home field advantage in that dome— offensive lines are going to struggle getting off the ball well. Chicago’s line has had troubles anyway. Am concerned about huge deficits Lions faced the last two weeks, but think this will be big game for them, especially with all the positive energy in the Motor City surrounding the Tigers.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/08/2011 05:57 PM

    Evening Best Bets:

    Auburn - 7:00 PM ET Arkansas -10 500
    Arkansas -

    Iowa State - 7:00 PM ET Iowa State +15.5 500
    Baylor -

    Troy - 7:00 PM ET UL Lafayette +6 500
    UL Lafayette -

    Vanderbilt - 7:00 PM ET Alabama -29 500
    Alabama -

    UNLV - 7:00 PM ET Nevada -20.5 500
    Nevada -

    Georgia - 7:00 PM ET Georgia -2.5 500
    Tennessee -

    Texas A&M - 7:00 PM ET Texas Tech +9.5 500
    Texas Tech -

    Marshall - 7:00 PM ET Marshall +19.5 500
    Central Florida -

    Michigan - 7:00 PM ET Michigan -7.5 500
    Northwestern -

    East Carolina - 7:00 PM ET East Carolina +11 500
    Houston -

    Colorado - 7:30 PM ET Stanford -29.5 500
    Stanford -

    Florida Atlantic - 7:30 PM ET North Texas -3.5 500
    North Texas -

    Ohio State - 8:00 PM ET Nebraska -10 500 POD
    Nebraska -

    Wyoming - 8:00 PM ET Wyoming +11 500
    Utah State -

    Syracuse - 8:00 PM ET Tulane +9.5 500
    Tulane -

    San Jose State - 10:15 PM ET San Jose State +14 500
    Brigham Young -

    Washington State - 10:30 PM ET Washington State +4 500
    UCLA -

    Texas Christian - 10:30 PM ET San Diego State +4.5 500
    San Diego State -

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: