cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
03/26/2013 05:33 PM

Tuesday's NIT/CIT Action

March 26, 2013

Only one game takes place in the NIT on Tuesday night, while three contests are showcased in the College Insider Tournament. All six teams playing the CIT hail from mid-major conferences, but the two squads hooking up in the NIT both are from power leagues and playing well down the stretch.

Maryland at Alabama (-3 ½) - 7:30 PM EST

The first spot in the NIT Final Four will be filled out on Tuesday night with the winner of this contest in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide has cashed seven of their last eight games following Saturday's 66-54 victory over Stanford as 4 ½-point favorites, the second straight triumph in the NIT by double-digits.

The Terrapins are equally as hot as the Tide, posting a similar 7-1 ATS record the previous eight contests, including six consecutive covers. Maryland rallied past Denver, 62-52 in the second round of the NIT, while grabbing the ATS win as 4 ½-point 'chalk.' Mark Turgeon's team is 5-0 ATS the last five games away from College Park, including three straight covers as an underdog.

These two teams are going in different directions from a totals standpoint. Maryland has cashed the 'over' in four of the last five games, while the offense has tallied at least 75 points four times in this stretch. Alabama is playing solid defense recently by allowing 58 points or less in four of the previous five contests, as Anthony Grant's club is riding a 6-2 run to the 'under.'


Evansville at Canisius (-1) - 7:00 PM EST

The Purple Aces are riding under the ATS radar lately by putting together a 7-1 mark against the number the last eight games. Evansville plays its first road game in the CIT following home victories over Tennessee State (84-72) and Eastern Kentucky (86-72), while cashing each time in the favorite role.

Canisius rallied from a 17-point halftime deficit to stun Youngstown State in overtime on Saturday, 84-82 as 2 ½-point road underdogs. The Golden Griffins shot just 37% from the floor, but knocked down 10 three-pointers to win consecutive games for the first time since early February. In the last three games away from home, Canisius has drilled the 'over,' while allowing at least 82 points each time. However, the Griffins step up their defense at home by giving up 65 points or less in the last three home contests.

Following a six-game road losing streak in Missouri Valley play, Evansville has won each of its last two away contests at Wright State and Wichita State. The Purple Aces shocked Wichita State as 11 ½-point underdogs, 59-56 in late February, while going 4-1 ATS the last five opportunities in the away 'dog role.

Loyola-Maryland at East Carolina (-4) - 7:00 PM EST

The Pirates needed a massive rally to survive the opening round against Savannah State, 66-65. However, ECU had an easier time against Rider on Friday, 75-54 to easily cash as four-point favorites, while limiting the Broncs to just 27% shooting from the floor. On Tuesday, the Pirates will see another MAAC team, a Loyola-Maryland squad that finished tied with Rider for second place in the conference.

The Greyhounds snapped a four-game ATS skid in a 73-59 rout of Kent State as 4 ½-point favorites, while the Golden Flashes couldn't hit a lick from the floor by shooting 27%. Loyola split its previous six road contests, as the Greyhounds are 3-1-1 the last five times in the away underdog role. The 'over' is rolling for the Greyhounds on the highway recently by cashing in each of the last six away from Maryland.

East Carolina has played just one away game since March 6, a 79-72 defeat to Tulsa in the Conference USA quarterfinals. In the four other contests in this stretch, ECU is 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS in Greenville, while posting a 5-2 ATS record the last seven games in the home favorite role.

Bradley at Northern Iowa (-11) - 8:00 PM EST

These two Missouri Valley squads are meeting for the third time this season after UNI swept the season series. The Panthers destroyed the Braves in Cedar Falls, 84-53 in January as 7 ½-point favorites, while taking a 41-14 advantage at halftime. Northern Iowa squeaked by Bradley in the second meeting in Peoria a month later, 68-65 as three-point favorites.

Bradley took care of business in its first two CBI games at home over Green Bay (75-69) and Tulane (77-72). The Braves are just 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS the last nine road contests, while one of the covers came by a ½ point at Creighton as 17-point underdogs. Bradley has been involved high-scoring affairs recently by going 8-3 to the 'over' the last 11 games.

Northern Iowa is struggling against the number of late by going 1-5 ATS the past six games, as the last two non-covers came as double-digit favorites against North Dakota and Illinois-Chicago. The Panthers are riding a 7-1 'over' stretch the previous eight trips to the court, but three of those 'overs' came on totals of 119 ½ or below.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
03/26/2013 05:35 PM

Sweet 16 Primer

March 25, 2013

With 52 schools eliminated, the 2013 NCAA Tournament is down to the Sweet 16. This year’s guests include former supermodel Amanda Marcum, ‘Dunk City,’ the LaSalle Explorers, three schools from the Sunshine State and Wichita St. from out of the Missouri Valley Conference.

The cast of characters include Buzz Williams, the lovable Marquette head coach who plays a mean air guitar and has led his team to a pair of improbable comeback victories over Davidson and Butler.

You want Hall-of-Fame-bound coaches? We’ve got Rick Pitino, Tom Izzo, Billy Donovan, Mike Krzyzewski and Bill Self. If Ohio St. ends up cutting the nets down in Atlanta, then Thad Matta should’ve been included in the previous sentence.

Cinderella is still in this tournament, but she’s way hotter this time around. Andy Enfield has a trophy wife and bigger paychecks headed his way after leading Florida Gulf Coast to a pair of blowout wins over second-seeded Georgetown and seventh-seeded San Diego St. In doing so, the Eagles became the first No. 15 seed to advance to the region semifinals.

And there was nothing fluky about it. FGCU beat Miami earlier this season, prompting many pundits to point to that defeat as the reason why the Hurricanes shouldn’t be a No. 1 seed. Um, I think we can now call that a quality loss (by three) for UM.

FGCU used a 21-2 second-half surge to take a 52-33 lead over Georgetown with 12:28 remaining Friday night. The Hoyas would rally to make it respectable, but the Eagles won by a 78-68 count as 13-point underdogs at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. Bernard Thompson was the catalyst with 23 points and seven rebounds, while Brett Comer finished with 12 points, 10 assists and six boards.

Enfield’s bunch took out the Aztecs 81-71 as a 7.5-point ‘dog. Thompson scored 23 points (again) and Comer posted another double-double with 10 points and 14 dimes. Sherwood Brown added 17 points and eight boards, including a ridiculous dunk off a no-look alley-oop dish from Comer.

FGCU will take its high-flying act to Cowboys Stadium to challenge third-seeded Florida on Friday night in Arlington. The Gators, who advanced with easy wins and covers over Northwestern St. and Minnesota, were favored by 13 against the Eagles as of Monday afternoon.

The total was 133.5. The Eagles are +700 on the money line (risk $100 to win $700).

Donovan has UF in the Sweet 16 for the third straight season. The Gators were led by Mike Rosario’s game-high 25 points in Sunday’s 78-64 win over Minnesota as eight-point ‘chalk. Rosario splashed the nets with six 3-pointers on nine attempts as Florida raced to a 48-27 lead at halftime.

Florida has had to go through Cinderella stories before in recent NCAA Tournaments with mixed results. In 2006, the Gators beat George Mason in the national semifinals before winning their first national title in school history.

UF has faced Butler in three different NCAA Tourneys since 1999 when it beat the Bulldogs on Mike Miller’s leaner at the buzzer in a first-round matchup. In the 2007 tournament, Florida had its toughest test on the way to repeating as national champs in a nail-biting win over Butler in the Sweet 16. Two years ago, Butler rallied from a double-digit second-half deficit to beat the Gators in overtime at the South Region finals in New Orleans.

Also in 1999, UF was eliminated in the West Region semifinals in Phoenix where Gonzaga advanced to the Elite Eight thanks to Casey Calvary’s tip-in winner in the final seconds.

Just last year, UF didn’t have to face Missouri in the second round because the second-seeded Tigers were stunned by No. 15 seed, Norfolk St.

The other game at Cowboys Stadium on Friday night will feature top-seeded Kansas up against Michigan, an undervalued No. 4 seed that looked like the best team in the field following easy wins and covers over South Dakota St. and VCU.

Most books are listing KU as a two-point favorite with a total of 136 ½.

The Jayhawks got all they wanted from Western Kentucky in Friday’s 64-57 win as 20.5-point favorites. The Hilltoppers led 31-30 at intermission and threatened to become the first No. 16 seed to advance. Then on Sunday, North Carolina raced out to a 12-2 advantage over KU and still led 31-20 at halftime, but Bill Self’s team used a 29-8 run to propel it to a 70-58 win as a 6.5-point favorite.

In the West Region semifinals on Thursday at Staples Center in Los Angeles, No. 2 Ohio St. will collide with sixth-seeded Arizona. Most spots have the Buckeyes favored by 3 ½ with a total of 133 ½. Gamblers can take the Wildcats to win outright for a +155 return (risk $100 to win $155).

Ohio St. survived a game effort from Iowa St. and won a 78-75 decision thanks to Aaron Craft’s 3-pointer with 0.5 seconds remaining. The Buckeyes had posted an easy first-round win over Iona.

Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five games after thumping Belmont (81-64) and Harvard (74-61) to easily cover the number in both spots.

The other game in Tinseltown will pit LaSalle vs. Wichita St. Most spots have the Shockers as four-point favorites with the total in the 135-136 range. The Explorers are +160 on the money line.

LaSalle went into Kansas City and upset Kansas St. before winning a nail-biter over Ole Miss. Gregg Marshall’s team advanced by dominating Pittsburgh before knocking off top-seeded Gonzaga.

The East Region semifinals will take place at Verizon Center in Washington, D.C., where Syracuse and Indiana will square off in a rematch of the 1987 national championship game won by IU on Keith Smart’s baseline jumper at the Superdome in New Orleans.

Most spots have Tom Crean’s squad installed as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 136. The ‘Cuse is +210 on the money line.

In the late game following IU-Syracuse, Miami is a 5.5-point ‘chalk’ vs. Marquette with a total of 127. The Golden Eagles are +220 on the money line (risk $100 to win $220). The Hurricanes blasted Pacific by 29 points but failed to cover in Sunday’s 63-59 victory over Illinois as eight-point favorites.

If Marquette and Indiana meet in the Elite Eight, Tom Crean would have to face his former team that he took to the Final Four in 2003.

The Midwest Region will anoint its winner in Indianapolis. Louisville, which wasn’t challenged in blowout wins over North Carolinal A&T and Colorado St., will meet No. 12 seed Oregon. The Ducks advanced with victories over No. 5 and No. 4 seeds, Oklahoma St. and Saint Louis.

Most books have U of L favored by 10 with a total of 128. Dana Altman’s team can be had to win outright for a +450 payout.

The Oregon-Louisville winner will face the survivor of Duke and Michigan St. Most books have Duke as a two-point favorite with a total of 134.

Louisville remains the ‘chalk’ to win the national championship in two weeks. has the Cardinals’ odds reduced to 3/1. Indiana and Florida have the next-shortest odds at +450 and +500, respectively.

Miami has 7/1 odds, followed by Ohio St. and Duke at 8/1 apiece, while Kansas, Michigan St., Syracuse and Michigan share 12/1 odds. At this point, I believe the Wolverines have the best value in the futures market.

Arizona has 25/1 odds, followed by Wichita St. (30/1), Marquette (40/1), Oregon (60/1), LaSalle (75/1) and Florida Gulf Coast (100/1).

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Minnesota fired Tubby Smith on Monday afternoon. Candidates to replace Smith might include Butler’s Brad Stevens, VCU’s Shaka Smart, Florida Gulf Coast’s Andy Enfield, Marquette’s Buzz Williams, former UCLA and Pitt coach Ben Howland and/or Wichita St.’s Gregg Marshall.

--Ben Howland is also out at UCLA. This search should be all about Butler’s Stevens or VCU’s Smart. However, Pitt’s Jamie Dixon might be the top choice even though he recently inked a 10-year extension with the Panthers. The Bruins will have plenty of quality options so they better get it right.

--Following its win over Ole Miss, LaSalle decided to stay in Kansas City instead of flying back to Philadelphia before a Tuesday trip to Los Angeles. The Explorers will fly from KC to LA on Tuesday afternoon.

--Sportsbook has Florida as the -150 favorite to win the South Region and move on to Atlanta. Kansas is at +225 while Michigan is +300. Florida Gulf Coast has 25/1 odds to win two more games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
03/26/2013 05:37 PM

Sweet 16 Returnees

March 26, 2013

Sweet 16 Trends

With the 2013 NCAA Tournament entering the SWEET 16 round, let's take a different perspective in analyzing the teams that have arrived. This one pertains specifically to teams that are returning to the SWEET 16 for the 2nd straight year.

Do these experienced teams perform with aplomb and panache, or do they bomb like Ted Kaczynski on a 2nd date? Let's take a peek.


-- Taking a look at this year's list of returnees, we find half of last year's field returning. They include - Florida, Indiana, Kansas, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan State, Ohio State and Syracuse.

-- According to our database, since 1992, teams making a right-back appearance in the SWEET 16 are 63-43 SU and 48-56-2 ATS in this round of the tourney.

-- The cut-line, however, is often times the pointspread.

-- That's confirmed by the fact that favorites of more than 6 points are 35-3 SU and 23-15 ATS in these games.

-- Priced at anything less (dog or favorite of 6 or fewer points), they dip drastically to 28-40 SU and 25-41-2 ATS in competitive contests.

-- This year's teams making the cut (favored by 6 or more points) are: Florida and Louisville.


-- Looking at it from a varied perspective, SWEET 16 returnees seem to struggle when arriving off a win of less than 10 points, going just 25-24 SU and 17-30-2 ATS.

-- This year that would include Marquette and Ohio State.

Note: Indiana and Syracuse face one another.


-- As expected, the top two seeds fare the best in Sweet 16 games as returnees, going 48-15 SU combined. To the spread, however, they are lukewarm, at best, going 32-31 ATS.

-- No. 3 seeds have fared the worst, going 5-7 SU and 3-9 ATS as returnees in this round. Not good news for Marquette or Michigan State.

-- Ironically, the Eagles failed in this same role as small favorites, losing 68-58 as small favorite versus Florida.


-- Worse, when SWEET 16 returnees arrive and are forced to take on top quality foe with a win percentage of .850 or greater they spring a major leak, going 7-16 SU and 8-14-1 ATS, including 4-14 SU and 4-13-1 ATS in they won fewer than 30 games last season.

-- If these same guys are facing a foe off a win of 15 or more points they capsize, going 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS.

-- The life rafts are ready and standing by for Michigan State this Friday.

-- The bottom line is you can draw your own conclusions, if you like. But make no mistake, when it comes to handicapping teams in the SWEET 16, the winners will likely be the better-qualified teams that have 'been there-and-done that'. Or those who know how to keep a ship afloat, if you know what I mean.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
03/26/2013 05:39 PM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

-- Mike Krzyzewski's record in his first three years at Duke? 38-47, with an ACC record of 13-29; if that was today instead of 1983, he'd be fired.

-- Minnesota fired Tubby Smith after not building him a practice facility they had promised in '07; interesting to see who they find that is better.

-- Sun Belt is adding four teams this week; Georgia Southern, Appalachian State for all sports, then Idaho/New Mexico State, just for football.

-- 34-year old Kyle Lohse got $33M for three years from Milwaukee, just to prove that once again, this is a great country.

-- Miami Heat won their 27th game in a row, beating Orlando, 108-94. Last time they lost was February 1 at Indiana.

-- John Wall had 47 points, 8 assists as Washington upset the Memphis Grizzlies 107-94; Wiz aren't bad when Wall is healthy.


Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.......

13) All this talk about Florida Gulf Coast being founded in the 1990’s made me think; how much cash does it take to start a college? I mean, how do you hire teachers? Where do the students come from? Books? Computers? Cafeteria workers? Has to be a pretty big undertaking.

12) Ben Howland gets $3.5M as a parting gift from UCLA; wish someone would pay me to go away. Imagine how much someone dislikes your work to pay you $3.5M just to go away?

11) By the way, it seems unfair that Howland gets the ziggy while Shabazz Muhammad will be a first round pick in the NBA in June; he grabbed zero rebounds in 39 minutes against Minnesota Friday. Zero, as in none. John Stockton’s kid at Gonzaga, who is 5-11 maybe 170, has a better defensive rebounding metric than Muhammad this season. That’s embarrassing.

10) has 8.15M brackets filled out in its contest; four people had 15 of 16, 760 had 14 of 16, 1,046 had zero of 16. Zero? That’s not good.

9) Former Villanova coach Steve Lappas, a studio guy on CBS Sports Network, ripped the refs of Indiana-Temple game, saying “….they held Kashif (Wyatt) every play in the last 5:00.” Not often you hear a studio guy who wasn’t even calling the game be so outspoken about officials.

8) LA Angels ate $34M of the remaining $42M on his contract to send Vernon Wells to the Bronx; he’s been paid by three different teams on this contract: Toronto still owes him $15M for three years on the deal. Wells is the most overpaid person in America not named Kardashian.

7) Former Dallas Cowboy exec Gil Brandt, who knows stuff, posted these college football teams as his top six going into the 2013 season: Ohio State-Texas A&M-Oregon-South Carolina-Florida-Alabama.

6) If they’re going to have spring college football, why not let each team have one home scrimmage, charge admission and televise them? Wouldn’t that raise a lot of money?

5) CBS televises The Masters? Who knew? Good thing they run those commercials every half hour to remind us.

4) High school basketball players who want to play in college should forego AAU and instead spend their time
a) Improving their bodies as much as possible to become better athletes and b) become as good a shooter as humanly possible. Shooters are always in demand, always.

Look at Sherwood Brown on Florida Gulf Coast; pretty terrific player, right? he's a walk-on, as in, no scholarship offers. He made himself a player.

3) Its fairly obvious that CBS dictated that Creighton-Duke have a 9:40 tipoff time Sunday night, despite the game being in Philadelphia. Made for a dead crowd and a lackluster game. Kansas-North Carolina from Kansas City would’ve been my choice for the last game of the day.

2) You can actually make the argument that Albany gave Duke a stiffer test than the Bluejays did. Creighton was dismal on offense; obviously Duke played much better against them, but Great Danes were down 8 with 4:40 left, lost by 12.

1) You wonder if Florida Gulf Coast’s success has a trickle down effect on other coaches, making their jobs more difficult, as in “How come they can get to the Sweet 16 and we can’t even make the tournament?”

I’m especially thinking of South Florida’s Stan Heath, the other team on Florida’s gulf coast, up in Tampa. Not only are the Bulls bad, they play a slower style. Got to be easier to recruit kids when you play fast. Has to be.
Reply With Quote

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
03/26/2013 05:40 PM


Maryland at Alabama
The Terps look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games against teams with a winning SU record. Maryland is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tide favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's games.


Game 657-658: Maryland at Alabama (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 67.901; Alabama 68.753
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 1; 130
Vegas Line: Alabama by 3 1/2; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+3 1/2); Over

Game 665-666: Evansville at Canisius (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 60.153; Canisius 63.033
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 3; 142
Vegas Line: Canisius by 1; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (-1); Under

Game 667-668: Loyola-MD at East Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 55.510; East Carolina 61.314
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 6; 144
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 4; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-4); Under

Game 669-670: Bradley at Northern Iowa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 55.104; Northern Iowa 64.399
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 9 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 11; 134
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (+11); Over

Long Sheet

Tuesday, March 26


MARYLAND (24 - 12) at ALABAMA (23 - 12) - 3/26/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARYLAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
ALABAMA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games in March games since 1997.
ALABAMA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
ALABAMA is 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
MARYLAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in March games this season.
ALABAMA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all home games over the last 2 seasons.
ALABAMA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ALABAMA is 1-0 against the spread versus MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
ALABAMA is 1-0 straight up against MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


EVANSVILLE (20 - 14) at CANISIUS (20 - 13) - 3/26/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EVANSVILLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less or pick over the last 2 seasons.
EVANSVILLE is 37-23 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
EVANSVILLE is 37-23 ATS (+11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
EVANSVILLE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
EVANSVILLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


LOYOLA-MD (23 - 11) at E CAROLINA (20 - 12) - 3/26/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOYOLA-MD is 24-5 ATS (+18.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 104-55 ATS (+43.5 Units) in road games since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 104-55 ATS (+43.5 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
E CAROLINA is 161-201 ATS (-60.1 Units) in all games since 1997.
E CAROLINA is 161-201 ATS (-60.1 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
E CAROLINA is 66-93 ATS (-36.3 Units) in all home games since 1997.
E CAROLINA is 66-93 ATS (-36.3 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
E CAROLINA is 49-80 ATS (-39.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


BRADLEY (18 - 16) at N IOWA (20 - 14) - 3/26/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRADLEY is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.
BRADLEY is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BRADLEY is 4-2 against the spread versus N IOWA over the last 3 seasons
N IOWA is 5-1 straight up against BRADLEY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, March 26

Maryland won four of last five games; they're 14-1 outside ACC, losing to Kentucky by 3 in season opener, irs only game vs SEC foe. Alabama won its last 12 home games, last losing 53-50 to Tulane Dec 30. Terps last played on Thursday, Bama Saturday afternoon. Crimson Tide gave up an average of 52.8 ppg in its last five games.

Canisius won seven of last nine home games; Griffs are #15 experienced team in country. Evansville won six of last seven games, losing by point to Indiana State in MVC tourney; Purple Aces are 3-9 in last 12 road games, but won last two, at Wright State/Wichita. Four of Canisius' last five games were decided by 4 or less points, or in OT.

East Carolina won six of last eight games; they're 4-3 in last seven away games; Pirates are 16-6 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Loyola lost by 14 at Memphis, its only game vs C-USA opponent; Greyhounds are 8-3 in last 11 games, with all three losses by 5 or less points. Loyola holds opponents to 29.8% behind arc, #17 in country.

Northern Iowa beat Bradley twice this season 84-53/68-65, leading by 27/19 at half; Panthers made 26-52 behind arc in two games. UNI is 9-1 in last ten games, losing only to Denver by 6. Braves lost nine of last ten road/neutral games, with only win 63-62 at UIC in Bracket Buster tilt. Bradley lost its last five visits here by average of 11 points.


Tuesday, March 26

Trend Report

7:00 PM
Evansville is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Canisius's last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Canisius's last 20 games

7:00 PM
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Loyola's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of East Carolina's last 15 games
East Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

7:30 PM
Maryland is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games on the road
Alabama is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Alabama's last 6 games at home

8:00 PM
Bradley is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Northern Iowa
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Bradley's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Northern Iowa's last 6 games when playing Bradley
Northern Iowa is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Bradley



Tuesday, March 26

Where the action is: Early Sweet 16 line moves

Spreads for the NCAA tournament Sweet 16 games are up and action has trickled in at books online and Las Vegas. We take a look at the biggest adjustments on the board as Thursday and Friday draw closer.

Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Miami Hurricanes – Open: -5.5, Move: -6

Miami is quickly becoming the public darling in this tournament and the Hurricanes’ Sweet 16 matchup with Marquette is no exception. Early money is on Miami and books expect that trend to stick until tipoff.

“Unless the sharps come in on the dog, I can't see how this game doesn't close Miami -6 or more,” Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with, told Covers. “Marquette has to feel very fortunate to be here winning both of its games by a combined three points.”

Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs. Florida Gators – Open: -11.5, Move: -13.5

Some markets have bumped this spread all the way to -13.5. Early action on the upstart Eagles was followed by a flood of money from the wiseguys, who think the clock is about to strike midnight on this year’s biggest Cinderella.

“People got a little excited after watching them blow away San Diego State,” Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, told Covers. “But then the pros came back hard on Florida.”

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Arizona Wildcats – Open: +4, Move: +3.5

Sharp money immediately bet the underdog and dropped this spread half a point. Since then, it’s been good two-way money, but books aren’t sure the wiseguys are done with this West Regional semifinal just yet.

“I do believe the sharps are going to line up on this game and take the dog,” says Stewart. “I believe this line closes at Ohio State -3.”

Wichita State Shockers vs. La Salle Explorers – Open: -4, Move: -3.5, Move: -4

With these two lesser known Cinderella squads playing for a spot in the Elite Eight, books aren’t holding out hope for a big handle on this West Regional semifinal.

According to Stoneback at the MGM, the two previous games featuring WSU and La Salle had half the handle of the other Round of 32 games.

Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils – Open: -1, Move: -2

These perennial Sweet 16 programs clash in a battle of big names and should be one of the biggest draws for bettors. debated opening -1.5 or -2 but went Duke -1.5 and instantly took sharp money on the favorite.

“So far, we have even action at that price so I don't see us moving off that number any time soon,” says Stewart.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Kansas Jayhawks – Open: -2.5, Move: -1.5, Move: -2

Early money is convinced Michigan has the firepower to take down the No. 1 seed in the South Regional, and has walked this line down a full point since post. But, Rock Chalk action is starting to show since the adjustment.

“At Kansas -1.5, money started showing on them so we went to -2 and haven't moved off that number,” says Stewart.



Tuesday, March 26

NCAA's biggest betting mismatches: Sweet 16

Oregon Ducks vs. Louisville Cardinals (-10, 127.5)

Ducks’ turnover troubles vs. Cardinals’ killer defense

Oregon may not be your conventional Cinderella, having won the Pac-12 title, but the Ducks are definitely going to feel like underdogs if they can't cure their case of the butter fingers against No. 1 Louisville in the Sweet 16. Oregon has been able to get by in the first two games despite turning the ball over 36 times, something that has plagued it all season.

The Ducks cough the ball up 15.1 times per game and now go against a swarming Cardinals defense that forces 18.9 turnovers a game – second most in the nation. Louisville pressured Colorado State to turn the ball over 19 times in the Round of 32 and forced 25 in its first-round win over NC A&T.

Syracuse Orange vs. Indiana Hoosiers (-5.5, 135.5)

Orange’s athletic zone vs. Hoosiers’ rebounding dependency

Syracuse’s 2-3 zone defense has carried the Orange deep into the tournament in past seasons and could give SU one of its biggest wins this Thursday. The Orange will depend on its athletic defense to slow up No. 1 Indiana and its bevy of scorers. Cuse locked down Cal star scorer Allen Crabbe in the Round of 32, holding the Pac-12 Player of the Year to eight points on 3-of-9 shooting.

The Hoosiers didn’t encounter too many zones during Big Ten play and have been able to dominate the boards because of it (38.7 rpg – 19th). Jamming up IU’s glass eaters, like Cody Zeller, will limit the Hoosiers' second-chance looks while pushing Victor Oladipo to the perimeter to deal with Syracuse’s long and athletic guards.

Kansas Jayhawks vs. Michigan Wolverines (+1.5, 137)

Jayhawks veteran Jeff Withey vs. Wolverines’ freshman Mitch McGary

Mitch McGary is going to be a great basketball player. The freshman big has shown flashes of his potential, like Michigan’s win over VCU this past weekend in which he scored 21 points and grabbed 14 rebounds. But those numbers came against a smaller Rams lineup and the Wolverines 6-foot-10 center has struggled against true size this season.

No player in the country plays as big as KU’s fifth-year senior Jeff Withey. The Jayhawks’ 7-foot-2 shot swatter is an impact player on both ends of the floor and makes a career out of taking it to softer frontcourts, like he did versus UNC Sunday. McGary often finds himself in foul trouble against bigger opponents. He was limited with four fouls against Indiana in the season finale and had similar issues versus Illinois’ long frontcourt.

Arizona Wildcats vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (-4, 134)

Wildcats’ western advantage vs. Buckeyes' Big Ten boos

While NCAA tournament games are held at neutral sites, the Staples Center is a home away from home for the Wildcats. Arizona has played there multiple times over the years, especially with the Pac-12 tournament being held in L.A. before moving to Las Vegas this season. The Wildcats played their 2011 Sweet 16 game at Staples Center, beating No. 1 Duke in front of a very pro-Arizona crowd.

“It’s a great feeling to be going back to L.A.,” Wildcats junior guard Jordin Mayes told the Tucson Citizen. “Our fan base is going to be right there with us. We expect it to be like it was in McKale Center.”

Ohio State enjoyed some in-state love in its first two tournament games in Dayton, Ohio but hasn’t traveled this far west all season. In fact, the Buckeyes haven’t been to the Golden State since opening the 2003-04 schedule with road games at San Francisco and San Diego State. I don’t think California sports fans have forgotten about all those Rose Bowl games. Los Angeles is about as far as you get from Big Ten country.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
03/26/2013 05:44 PM

Short Sheet

Tuesday, March 26

New York at Boston, 7:05 ET TNT
New York: 30-13 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less
Boston: 67-97 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games

Minnesota at Detroit, 7:35 ET
Minnesota: 28-44 ATS after a non-conference game
Detroit: 31-14 OVER in home games after playing 3 games as an underdog

LA Clippers at Dallas, 9:35 ET TNT
LA Clippers: 78-113 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite
Dallas: 18-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or more

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
03/26/2013 06:19 PM

Tuesday, March 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Evansville - 7:00 PM ET Canisius -1.5 500 POD # 1
Canisius - Over 147 500

Loyola-Maryland - 7:00 PM ET East Carolina -3 500 POD # 2
East Carolina - Under 147.5 500

Maryland - 7:30 PM ET Alabama -3.5 500
Alabama - Under 127 500

Bradley - 8:00 PM ET Northern Iowa -11 500
Northern Iowa - Under 134 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
03/27/2013 12:53 AM

Wednesday's NIT Action

March 26, 2013

The Sweet 16 is right around the corner in the NCAA Tournament, but the NIT is down to its Elite Eight with three games to determine who will move on to Madison Square Garden next Tuesday night. Seven of the eight teams in this round are third seeds or higher with the lowest seed being Providence (4). The premiere contest takes place in Charlottesville with a late-season ACC/Big Ten Challenge.

Iowa at Virginia - 7:30 PM EST

The Cavaliers own a perfect 20-0 record at home, as UVA will play its final game at John Paul Jones Arena this season with a potential trip to New York for the NIT Final Four on the line. Iowa invades Charlottesville with an eight-game ATS win streak, while six of its last seven victories have come by double-digits. The Hawkeyes advanced to this round of the NIT following solid home triumphs over Indiana State (68-52) and Stony Brook (75-63).

Virginia's bubble burst for an NCAA Tournament bid by losing late-season contests to Florida State, Boston College, and N.C. State. However, Tony Bennett's team is making the most of its NIT appearance with home wins over Norfolk State (67-56) and St. John's (68-50), but the Cavs only covered in the victory over the Red Storm as 10 ½-point favorites. The cover snapped a five-game ATS skid for Virginia, who has compiled a 14-3-1 ATS record at home this season.

The Hawkeyes are the best ATS team in the nation (22-9), in spite of winning just two of 10 true road games this season. Iowa closed the season cashing five of its last six opportunities when receiving points away from home, but Fran McCaffery's club lost all six times to Michigan State, Indiana, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. In November's ACC/Big Ten Challenge, Iowa traveled to Virginia Tech and was trounced by the Hokies, 95-79 as two-point underdogs.

BYU at Southern Mississippi - 8:00 PM EST

Two underrated teams from mid-major conferences hook up in Hattiesburg as the Cougars travel to the Gulf Coast off home blowouts of Washington (90-79) and Mercer (90-71). BYU cashed each time in the favorite role, while obliterating the 'over' (148 vs. Washington and 144 vs. Mercer) in both victories. Southern Miss held off Louisiana Tech's late rally in a 63-52 home win on Monday to cash as six-point favorites, avenging an earlier road loss to the Bulldogs in December.

The Golden Eagles have won five of six overall with the lone defeat coming in double overtime to Memphis in the Conference USA tournament final. The 'under' in Monday's triumph over Louisiana Tech snapped a four-game streak to the 'over,' while Donnie Tyndall's team is now 10-3 to the 'over' the previous 13 contests. Southern Miss owns a mediocre 6-7 ATS record as a favorite of 6 ½ points or less this season, but the Golden Eagles have won each of their last three games in this pointspread spot by double-digits.

BYU is playing only its third true road game since February 8, as the Cougars are 2-4 ATS this season away from Provo. The Cougars won just once in six tries in this role, coming at Santa Clara on January 12 as two-point 'dogs in an 82-64 victory. The last 10 games have not been kind to BYU backers with a 3-6-1 ATS record, but all six ATS defeats came as favorites of eight points or more.

Providence at Baylor - 9:00 PM EST

The Bears try to salvage their season by looking for their first appearance in the NIT Final Four since losing in the championship to Penn State in 2009. Baylor's offense has gone nuts in two NIT blowouts over Long Beach State (112-66) and Arizona State (89-86), but the Bears failed to cover as 8 ½-point favorites against the Sun Devils on Friday night.

Providence used a late run to eliminate upstart Robert Morris on Monday, 77-68 as 7 ½-point 'chalk.' The Friars closed the season winning six straight games at the Dunkin Donuts Center, while posting a 5-4 ATS record as a road underdog. Ed Cooley's team has put together a 1-4 SU/ATS mark on the highway following a home victory, which includes recent setbacks at Connecticut and Syracuse.

Baylor has covered just once in its last four opportunities as a home favorite, while going 8-3 to the 'over' in the previous 11 games overall. Scott Drew's club has eclipsed the 80-point mark in five of the last six contests played in Waco, as the Bears put up a 60-spot in the second half of Friday's win against Arizona State. Since 2010, Baylor owns an impressive 11-1 ledger to the 'over' in postseason games (including conference tournaments).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
03/27/2013 01:02 AM

Wednesday, March 27

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Iowa - 7:00 PM ET Iowa +4 500
Virginia - Under 123 500

Western Michigan - 7:00 PM ET Western Michigan +4.5 500 POD # 4
George Mason - Under 138.5 500

Brigham Young - 8:00 PM ET Southern Miss -5.5 500
Southern Miss - Over 151 500

Providence - 9:00 PM ET Baylor -9 500 POD # 3
Baylor - Over 147 500

Oral Roberts - 9:00 PM ET Weber St. -9 500 POD # 2
Weber St. - Over 141 500

Santa Clara - 9:00 PM ET Santa Clara +1 500 POD # 1
Wright St. - Under 133 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
03/28/2013 03:40 PM

Thursday's Early Action

March 27, 2013

Thursday's Sweet 16 action in the East and West regionals involves an interesting group of teams ranging from 13th seed La Salle to top-seeded Indiana. We'll take a look at the two tips in the 7:00 EST hour as four major conferences are represented, leading off with the Big East against the ACC.

East Regional

(2) Miami vs. (3) Marquette - 7:15 PM EST - CBS

The first tip-off at the Verizon Center in Washington D.C. involves two teams that weren't expected to be playing in this round when the season began. The Hurricanes continued their magical run by holding off Illinois in Sunday's round of 32 with a 63-59 triumph, but failed to cash as eight-point favorites. However, UM will be without one of its key players for Thursday's Sweet 16 showdown with Marquette.

Center Reggie Johnson underwent minor knee surgery on Tuesday, which will keep him out of this weekend's action. Johnson's productivity dipped following a thumb injury in December's Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii, as 'Canes big man has not scored more than eight points in any of the last 12 games. In Sunday's win over Illinois, Johnson failed to score a single point in 18 minutes, but point guard Shane Larkin came through with a huge three-pointer in the final minute to take the lead for good.

Marquette managed to qualify for this round after squeaking by Davidson and Butler in the first two games. In the victory over Davidson in the second round, the Golden Eagles erased a five-point deficit in the final 41 seconds to shock the Wildcats, 59-58. Buzz Williams' team couldn't cash as 3 ½-point favorites, the fifth consecutive non-cover away from Milwaukee. The Golden Eagles held off Butler in the third round on Saturday, 74-72, as many closing numbers had Marquette as two-point 'chalk,' while the line hovered at 1 ½ for most of the day.

The Hurricanes turned in one of the better ATS records in the country at 21-10-1, as Jim Larranaga's club is riding a 4-1 ATS run. Miami is in the midst of a 7-3 'over' stretch, but the offense has been held to 65 points or less three times, including in the Illinois victory. The 'Canes are facing Marquette for the first time in school history, while searching for their first-ever appearance in the Elite Eight.

Miami is listed as five-point favorites, while the total is set at 127.

West Regional

(2) Ohio State vs. (6) Arizona - 7:45 PM EST - TBS

The Buckeyes survived a scare in Sunday's round of 32 triumph over Iowa State thanks to a three-pointer at the buzzer by Aaron Craft. Ohio State edged its way to the Sweet 16 with a 78-75 win, but couldn't take home the money as 7 ½-point favorites. Thad Matta's squad led by 13 points in the second half, as the Cyclones rallied back with 19-5 run to grab a one-point advantage in the final two minutes of regulation. Craft's three-ball helped put the Buckeyes in the Sweet 16 for the fourth consecutive March.

The Wildcats breezed through their first two tournament victories over Belmont and Harvard, winning each game by at least 17 points. Sean Miller's team easily cashed in the favorite role each time, including as 10 ½-point favorites in a wire-to-wire 74-51 rout of the Crimson in the third round. In each of Arizona's last six victories, the Wildcats have won by double-digits, but four of those triumphs came against weaker competition as favorites of at least 10 points.

Ohio State has been nearly an automatic cover since February 20, posting an 8-2 ATS record the last 10 games. The two ATS losses came to Iowa State (in which the Buckeyes had a commanding lead) and at Northwestern, as the Wildcats cashed as 11-point home underdogs in a 63-53 loss. The Buckeyes are dominated as a single-digit favorite of late by going 7-2 ATS the last nine games in this role.

Arizona doesn't have to travel very far after returning home from Salt Lake City, as the next two rounds of this regional take place at Staples Center in Los Angeles. It may not mean much, but the Wildcats lost each of their two games in L.A. this season at UCLA and USC towards the end of the season. The 'Cats are listed as an underdog for just the second time this season, as Arizona came back late to stun Florida at home in December, 65-64.

The Buckeyes are 3 ½-point favorites, while the total is set at 134.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: